Thoughts On The Pattern Ahead

Good evening, folks. It’s another cold, dreary November day wrapping up across the bluegrass state. As we inch closer to Thanksgiving, we will be seeing much better weather rolling in for holiday travelers. Once past the big day, this very active pattern ramps back up, with winter weather chances increasing.

There could still be a leftover sprinkle or snow flurry before the evening is finished. Not much of that will show up on regional radar so don’t stress your eyes trying to find them…

Wednesday and Thanksgiving continue to look dry with a healthy temperature spread from northeast to southwest, with areas in the northeast being much chillier.

Black Friday starts off in good shape, but rain sweeps in late in the day into Friday night. That system lingers into Saturday…

The system behind that is likely a big wind maker from Sunday through Tuesday. Rain is likely along and ahead of this system, with a switch to a mix of rain and snow then a few snow showers…

I’m still watching the setup behind that for the end of next week. That’s a setup that has been throwing a winter storm signal out from time to time. The late day GFS picked up on that possibility…

The pattern closing November and beginning December has a cold and wintry look to it. The European Ensembles show a major block across the Arctic and that forces a split in the polar vortex. One piece of that goes to the other side of the globe, with another piece heading into Canada…

That could lead to a direct discharge of arctic air into the eastern half of the country for early December…

Make it a great evening and take care.


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4 Responses to Thoughts On The Pattern Ahead

  1. Terry says:

    Sounds cool or should I say cold☺

    Hopefully, the blocking will not be so strong that the southern jet gets crushed later on in December. Current AO is heading towards very negative while NAO is slightly negative:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    Next week is too much of rain and little or any snow for my liking☹….maybe it gets better late next week!

    • Jimbo says:

      I hope this year is different. But just look at that last GFS model that Chris posted. It clearly shows the warm wedge of air again over eastern KY and WV. Looks a lot like rain and backside flurries ….again.

      • Terry says:

        I know☹….What in the world has happened with the Lake Effect snow over the past several years??? Sure Lake Effect snow events are normally small snows but it seems we are not having the correct wind setup over the past several years to get much upslope. We could usually bank on about 10 inches annually with Lake Effect events here in Harlan but we have had so little, even during the 2014-2015 season!

        • Jimbo says:

          I have noticed the same thing over the past 6 or 7 years. In my area we used to be able to count on several clippers and lake effect snow bands to put down 2 to 3 inch snow events a few times per Winter. Now clippers almost always start as rain and northwest flow/lake effect are non-events for me. I guess the dominate feature for us now is the southeast downsloping wind. Most models have caught on to it now. When you check out a map the eastern Ky/ western WV area is devoid of snow, except for the backside flurries.

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