Good Sunday, folks. We have a very windy and mild weather day taking shape across the region. This is ahead of a storm system rolling into the region tonight, bringing a fairly dramatic temperature drop and a change back to winter behind it. This change will include rounds of snow showers and flurries to start the last work week of November.
Temps today should hit the 60s on a strong southwest wind. This is ahead of a winter storm pounding areas from the plains starts into the Great Lakes. As that storm rolls toward the Lakes, it drags a cold front across Kentucky tonight. A line of showers and some thunder develop ahead of the front from west to east.
Our interactive radar lets you track that action and gives you live streams from the snowstorm to our northwest. Give it a spin…
As the front swings through tonight, temps crash some 20 degrees in just a few hours. Some areas of light snow will be noted behind the front, but it’s the northwesterly wind that should cause the best flakes to fly as the day wears on and into Monday night. This is a really good flow for snow showers in central and eastern Kentucky, especially…
Some light accumulations are possible during this time, especially later Monday into Monday night. In looking at the snowfall maps from the models, keep in mind these are cumulative and not an exact depth at any one time. Snow showers can put down a quick accumulation that melts then does it all over again an hour or two later…
Hi Res NAM
NAM
Canadian (RGEM)
This is a VERY cold air mass for this time of year and will do quite the number on our temps. The numbers stay in he 30s on Monday, but may struggle to get to freezing on Tuesday. Check out the NAM temps…
Throw the winds into the mix and you get some frigid wind chill numbers…
That little snow system for Tuesday night into Wednesday isn’t as robust as before on the models. Watch how the NAM sees it, but shears it out as it dives inform the northwest…
Temps do moderate following that heading into the weekend, but we are already seeing a trend toward colder showing up on the models. Instead of systems going well west of us, the trend is to bring them farther east…
We will have to see how it all plays out, but a very cold pattern will likely ensue during the first week of December.
I will have updates later. Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. Have a question… is our precip for today mainly an NW to SE thing or more straight west to east? And timing is another question. I have kids travelling back to their home in Ohio today and I want their journey to be a safe one. As for the cold and some snow chances, well it is almost December, so I guess we should expect that right? Have a great Sunday everyone.
Dense fog this morning here in the hills of central Kentucky, will later clear and give us a very warm, sunny day with maybe some wind gust. The storm to our northwest is responsible as it quickly moves toward Lake Michigan and into Canada. I believe that a lot of factors are at play as we have not yet experience any intrusion of true Arctic air here in the Ohio Valley, which would lower our temperatures to sub-freezing levels for highs that would last more than two days. One factor that is keeping the very deep cold air from coming into the Ohio Valley is the strong westerlies aloft throughout Canada and also a strong Arctic Oscillation even though it’s charge as negative at the present. On the southern part of the jet ( subtropical jet ) is present this year but here lately has been weak as it moves across the Gulf coast states and along the eastern seaboard. ENSO El Nino has yet to form even though we have warm surface sea temperatures. An article I read stated that the warm surface sea temperatures are not reacting with the atmospheric conditions needed to form El Nino so we will maintain our current ENSO- neutral phase. Scientist are still maintaining an eighty percent chance of a weak El Nino to form sometime this winter. However some scientist are beginning to lean toward ENSO-neutral through spring. This is a very difficult forecasting and it is any ones guess as how our winter will eventually turn out ?
No mention of the dense fog this morning. This is really impacting travel both on ground and by air. I guess we were too focused on minor wrap around snows that never amount to much around here. Watch the dry air eat this stuff up and we end up with another overdone NAM forecast.
There’s hardly anything there to begin with, so no harm no foul. Anything in now and December is a bonus 🙂 Last true snowy December was 1989, that I recall. Snowed a bunch.
2009 in SE KY was a snowy December….honestly, I have never seen a snowy November in my lifetime. This year was no different, well in SE KY anyways. A lot of KY at least had a rare measurable November snowfall, except far SE KY.☹
Your climate resembles mine. I have only seen a handful of flurries, no accumulation. The 2009 Winter was my last snowy November too. I haven’t even received that many frosts, probably fno more than five. I seriously don’t see where this month has been so cold like I have been hearing. It might be slightly below normal for temps. Not that far from normal and overall pretty boring.
I agree! Hopefully, blocking and a more active jet will combine later in December to help us out some. The central US will be near record cold for November monthly average but our region will be just a few degrees below average.
Your not so subtle dig at Chris is duly noted.
We will have to take what we get. At least it’s unsettled weather and not boring sunny days every day.
I agree! Plus, we are working on a record wet year….might as well finish what we started with an active pattern going into December☺
Around the middle of December pattern should look more favorable for snow..Seen 1963-64 thrown out there for an analog..Have no idea what happened in the Ohio valley but believe parts of the eastern us in the latter half of December was cold and snow..The Deep freeze is also mentioned..Sounds like an interesting analog..