Good Wednesday, folks. The current pattern just doesn’t get much more wintry for the month of November across the bluegrass state. Widespread snow showers have caused all kinds of travel issue and frigid temps and gusty winds have produced single digit wind chills. This has been some crazy stuff for so early in the season and is likely a preview of what winter holds for us.
This pattern is about to take a windy and wet break for a few days and I will touch on that in a few. Let’s begin with another frigid weather day in the bluegrass state.
This marks the 11th day of the month with winter precipitation falling from the sky. Snow showers and flurries will still be common this morning with lingering afternoon flakes in the east…
Slick roads this morning will likely lead to delays and cancellations for some. Temps out the door are mainly in the teens with wind chills in the single digits. The rest of the day features a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 30s, but a wind chill hanging in the 20s.
As the bitter cold moves away on Thursday, another system moves in. This may bring a period of sleet and light freezing rain before a switch to all light rain by late Thursday into Thursday night. The rainy weather then takes us into Friday when some rumbles of thunder try to join the party.
The next storm is deeper and stronger as it wraps up across the Mississippi Valley and rolls into the Great Lakes. That means heavy rain and high winds Friday night into Saturday. Gusts of 40-50mph will be possible and a few of the thunderstorms may even be strong…
The models are bringing the cold back quicker by Monday and Tuesday. They are trying to make the third system more of a snow maker during this time.
Here’s the GFS…
The European is a little weaker but has a similar idea…
The pattern then becomes favorable for a southern tracking storm by the end of next week into the following weekend. It’s a pretty good signal from this far out…
Moral of the story: This wet and windy break from winter this weekend is just a small one that only lasts a few days.
I will have updates later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
The break will be good. I am driving to Detroit on Saturday and back Sunday night, so milder temps will help.
Cut some of that cold rain out of far SE KY forecast and stop cheating us of our snow (talking to you Mr. GFS) for next week, then I will be happy☺
Most of the snow stayed just north of Harlan on the other side of Pine Mt. with just a tiny dusting here☹….sigh…at least we did have 2 days of flurries with a definite January feel!
Regardless moving forward, there just is no rest in the near future for precip with many areas likely to push 70 inches on the annual next week! Actually, the pattern is about to become more active as that will be FIVE systems to track for ONE week time span. What a year!
CORRECTION: Four systems for one week to track…Still insane!
Chris did a great job calling the last couple days snow. I didn’t get but a dusting. But it did snow all day yesterday, just not heavily. Which is something for my area especially since the sun didn’t peek out one time to melt it. The local tv met’s and NWS really dropped the ball on this past system for my area. My precip record was also broken Monday, I now have over 61 inches for the year.
Chris is Awesome and did the best with his forecast. NAM also rocked it! Even though I only received about 1/4 an inch, I was still in the coating criteria and only Chris locally got it right!
Looks like 3 inch or more RAIN event possible just through next Tuesday….Yikes. I am at 62.01. Harlan mesonet is closing in on 80 inches…..but, the location is a state outlier due to extreme elevation difference. Still, other locations are nearing 70 inches already! Also, currently 8 degrees at 4,000 ft up!!!!
http://www.kymesonet.org/summaries.html
About a haft of an inch of snow showers yesterday and the wind chill I just couldn’t take. We have had 5.17 inches of precipitation for the month, and 62.49 inches so far for the year here in central Kentucky. I don’t care for the storm tract for this weekend and I hope this isn’t going to be the primary tract for the upcoming winter. On the radio out of California for the first time they are talking about El Nino as it has already formed. We shall see. But if the current predicted storm tract continues we will have a ” yo yo winter. ” Up and down temperatures and more warm winds followed by short lived cold spells. Maybe latter in the winter 2019 we may have a couple of those heavy wet snows somewhere in the state of Kentucky and Indiana ? Like I said before it’s a difficult forecast to call.
Schroeder are you already throwing in the towel at the end of November lol? It’s so funny that people do this so early and it isn’t even winter yet. Nino’s are usually backloaded winters anyways, but you keep looking at those high winds and sea surface temps for us.
I prefer a front loaded winter, mid loaded winter and a back loaded winter like we had in the best winter I’ve seen 1969-1970 in Washington, Indiana my home town and where I was born. In 1969-1970 I was a senor in high school. I remember all the snowball fights after school. At lease I was lucky to be present to enjoy those days and have the memories.
We do at the present have high westerlies aloft and the surface sea temperature of the Gulf of Mexico is between 75 and 80 degrees. WAY TOO WARM for this time of the year. All I can say about that is #climatechangeevent.
The weather doesn’t care what you prefer Schroeder and maybe you can build a time machine yo go back to 69-70 and enjoy your boyhood winter memory all over again. Nino’s are backloaded winters where January and February are usually the money months, so if you are unhappy then maybe you should sit out until then.
It was 13 dsgrees this morning going to work. Thanks jack frost..
when we have those northwest flow events like we had yesterday – it’s so weird how the radar showed these blobs are precip that were not moving, and it showed nothing over Lexington, and yet it was snowing decently on and off most of the day… is it because of Lexington being in between radar locations for such light precip not showing up?
As cold as it has been, Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort have only recorded just one day this month when the temperature failed to get above freezing…and that was yesterday.
High yesterday in my backyard was 25 degrees.