Good Thursday, folks. Our weather pattern this year has been nothing short of crazy, especially of late, and it shows no signs of letting up. We are making the transition from a wintry pattern to a wet and windy setup, but Old Man Winter is already plotting his return by early next week. Get your Dramamine ready! 🙂
Low-level cold, dry air is lingering today and that’s going to play a part in the type of precipitation you get for a time today. A touch of sleet and freezing rain will be possible on the leading edge of a light rain shield moving in from the southwest today. With ground temps below freezing, we will need to watch for a few slick spots, especially in the valleys. Temps should go above freezing later this afternoon with light rain taking control pretty quickly. Here are your tracking toys…
A few showers continue across the region on Friday as we close the books on November. Another big system moves in Friday night and Saturday, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms and winds gusting from 40-50mph at times…
Rain totals through Saturday night may range from 1″-2″ in many areas of he state…
Sunday is looking better with gusty winds and just a small shower chance. Colder air oozes in starting late Sunday into Monday as we watch another storm system roll our way. I continue to think this is a rain to snow setup, but we have the usual questions on the evolution of the whole thing. The models continue to waffle back and forth on the evolution, too.
The GFS is a little weaker and convoluted with the setup, but that’s typical of this model in this time range…
Behind that storm system, notice the clipper system diving in with some snow by the middle of next week. That clipper shows up even better on the Canadian, which has a stronger first storm system…
The European is a cross between the GFS and Canadian…
That’s a lot of very cold air showing up right on cue during the first full week of December.
The setup late next week into the weekend is going to try and send a storm rolling east across the south…
I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.
So, within the time span of 48 hours, GFS shifted the weekend storm over 300 miles west….good for SE KY rainfall, but not a trend I want to keep seeing this upcoming winter. GFS almost always shifts NW (Infamous NW Shift) and will probably kill out that eye candy storm for SE KY snow lovers next week too….GURRR!
Thank goodness, so now maybe .5 in? I was worried about getting 2-3 in..
It’s the westerlies aloft along with a strong negative Arctic Oscillation that is keeping the deep cold Arctic air from entering the US. In the winters of the past cold fronts moved further south into the Gulf of Mexico and sometimes into central Florida. This is not happening this year so far. Next week’s cold front will not be as cold as the one we just experience. If the sub-tropical jet ( + ) ever gets amplified by El Nino the pattern may change. What I’am afraid of is that our precipitation will be more rain or Ice instead of Snow because of the warmer than normal surface sea temperatures of the Gulf and the southwest Atlantic Ocean. This is the way I see it and this is my last comment. I just can’t take the put downs anymore every time I post my opinions on this forum and no one on here wants to here what I have to say including Chris. You can’t be positive or negative when it comes to forecasting the weather. Now you all can say Thank God he’s gone! We got our normal comment section back !
I enjoy your comments! others are very immature and childless who cant behave like adults. Everyone has their own opinions and if they don’t like then don’t read and no reason to reply anything negative.
Interesting name for a burner account…
We have all heard this before from you Schroeder and we know you won’t stop posting your disagreements with Chris’s forecast.
This past week’s front did move to the Gulf. Did you not see the temps in the Gulf and Northern Florida this week? Artic air is coming next week and it appears the Polar Vortex will be dislodged and sent down to us by the end of December. Why do you keep acting like it’s the westerlies and Gulf ocean temps that drive our weather and temps? If it was that easy Schroeder then we wouldn’t need degreed meteorologists, but please keep telling us how much more you know than Chris.
Unless there is a strong SER that develops like last February the temps of the Atlantic Ocean don’t have an effect on us. It’s the temps in the Gulf of Alaska that is a driver of our temps here.
The self-aggrandizement is strong with this one…
Oh God!!!! Sound the alarm!!! Schroeder is once again threatening for the countless time on leaving the blog that he’s never left in the first place! Will somebody anybody please give Schroeder a snickers!?! He’s cranky this morning and in dire need of much needed attention.
I’m sorry Schroeder that you feel this way. I have been reading this blog for at least 2 years. I love reading everyone’s comments including yours. Everyone has a right to their own opinion. With that being said, I love hearing about Chris Bailey’s winter forecast and it is sad to then read your comments saying it isn’t going to happen. But that’s just me because I love winter! Have a great day and happy holidays!
I’m probably in the minority, but I don’t much care about his rambling, true it’s usually inaccurate, I just move along to the next comment, so if he wants to continue, so be it.
Dramatic is an understatement
Ashland KY/ Huntington WV here. I keep hearing we will be getting snow Monday night into Tuesday and then again next Friday evening. Anyone want to chime in on this?
Rain then backside flurries maybe a dusting. Same as always.
Th new Fv3-GFS has some eye candy at hour 240 snowfall map. Chances of that happening are .1%. But interesting to see the Canadian also has a southern storm
Looking back at some cold Novembers in the past and what followed the winter of 2014-2015 sticks out..Wonder if this was one of Chris’s analog on his bold prediction..Also that winter we were in a central base weak El Nino like were in now..I remember flooding in March and it being cold..Be interesting if it plays out like 2014-15..
2014-2015 had a much warmer December before it turned ice cold and snowy in January-February. Another back loaded El Nino.
Yes..Just my opinion but believe December will be a little warmer than November..Probably still BN or just a tad AN..Why i believe 2014-15 kinda fits the analog..Have not looked but wonder if there was any snow in December that year..77-78 looks like a good analog also..Hope the folks in the SE part of the state has a good winter..If i had to make a forecast believe they score good this go around..
I still think we do too….just need to be patient which is hard when everyone is getting snow all around, even within the same state at times.
Gotta like what’s showing up around the 9th..Long ways to go but could be tracking our first big snow of the young winter..Control run crushes the SE..Hopefully system keeps showing up as we get closer..
With a lot of up down with the
PNA, AO and NAO over the past few weeks, I don’t think this December will be as warm as 2014-2015 season either….We could rival for a worse winter….that is my thoughts and not really anyone I have listened to.