A Stormy Break In Winter Weather

Good Friday, everyone. We have a little break in the winter weather pattern we’ve been in for most of November, but this isn’t a quiet break. Showers and storms will combine with high winds to cause some issues as we close November and begin December. Once into next week, winter returns.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up across many areas, with the focus mainly across the southern half of the state into the afternoon and early evening…

Our next system is a doozy and will bring near blizzard conditions to parts of the plains and upper Midwest. This means showers and storms will increase across Kentucky later tonight. Those storms could be a little on the strong side. The Storm Prediction Center has areas just to our southwest highlighted for severe storms as early as this evening…

The threat for a few strong storms may be noted across Kentucky on Saturday. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…

Even without thunderstorms, winds are going to be very gusty and may reach 40-50mph at times…

Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ is possible for some through Saturday.

Sunday continues to look very good, but windy. Highs are in the upper 50s and low 60s with partly sunny skies.

Colder air filters in on Monday and I’m still watching the potential for a light rain to light snow maker. The models aren’t very enthusiastic with this system right now.. The current GFS has it and produces a light snowfall on Tuesday…

The new version of the GFS has some very light snow and snow showers instead…

That matches up with what most of the other models are showing… Snow showers with light accumulations and very cold temps.

This sets the stage for a storm system to take a southern track across the country, then trying to turn up the east coast. The signal has been there a while, but the details are several days away from being known. All the models have it, but handle it differently from run to run and model to model.

GFS

New version of the GFS

The European…

 I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Friday and take care.


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12 Responses to A Stormy Break In Winter Weather

  1. Terry says:

    Cut all of that rain from model waffling out of SE KY, then everything looks nice next week!☺

  2. Terry says:

    Geeze, just south of Lexington on westward from about Bowling Green east to Pikeville is getting slammed with training rains. Looks like the models may be on the low end of the rain that some are going to get by Sat night.

    How much does Lexington need now to officially beat 2011 after last night’s rain?

  3. Jim B says:

    Folks, settle in for a typical Ky winter….. rainy and nasty, with a few near misses, and a lot of not so near misses

  4. Jimbo says:

    I haven’t received a drop of rain yet in my area, good. As for next week, that little system looks to have the best chance for any flakes for me. The bigger late week one looks like it will activate our notorious warm wedge, with rain.

  5. Mike S says:

    In addition to Lexington possibly setting its wettest year ever this weekend, Black Mountain Mesonet site in Harlan county may exceed the 80″ mark, first time that has happened since 2016 when the Mesonet site in Calloway county near Murray received 81.85″ that included 3 monthly double-digit precipitation totals during the year.

  6. BengalFan says:

    At least the weather “a week away” gives me hope, Probably won’t win(snow)
    “a week away” for my Bengals doesn’t even give me hope. WILL NOT WIN!

  7. Mike S says:

    While some webcams in Anchorage show a normal downtown routine, some webcams last update corresponded eerily to about the time the earthquake struck, at 8:29 Alaska time.

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