Sunday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. Our weekend is wrapping up on a very windy, but very nice note as temps reach the 60s under sunny skies. Soak it up because Old Man Winter is about to roll back into the bluegrass state with multiple snow chances for the week ahead, and the potential for a bigger system late Friday and Saturday.

A cold front moves is moving in from the east this evening and brings much colder air tonight Monday. Highs on Monday are generally in the upper 30s to low 40s with a shower popping in the afternoon. That colder air continues to settle in Tuesday and Wednesday with light snow and snow showers becoming common. Light accumulations are a good bet, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. That shows up on the models…

New version of the GFS

GFS

Canadian

Wednesday may find a few delays and cancellations across the region.

Another system zips through here late Thursday into Thursday night. This may have some rain and snow with it, with the potential for another light accumulating snowfall for some.

That system is likely to have an impact on the track of the potential winter storm coming behind it for late Friday into the weekend.

We’re likely to see another potent low eject out of the southwest and roll from east to west across the southern states. That’s likely to then turn the corner up the east coast. The exact track of that low will be the determining factor on exactly where that low goes and how much winter weather it can bring us.

Let’s check in on the current model runs to see what they are cooking up.

The latest European Model has a very suppressed storm track that takes snow well to our south…

The new version of the GFS continues with a good winter storm hit…

The GFS is very similar…

The Canadian is just a smidge farther south with all that…

There’s still plenty of time to watch this system and the models will vary from run to run, sometimes drastically.

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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11 Responses to Sunday Afternoon Thoughts

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Snow chances for the week ahead are enough to put one in the holiday mood! I’ll take it! As for next weekends potential, well I will take a wait and see on that one until you get more confident about what happens with it…

  2. Terry says:

    One thing I have observed over the years is this: Suppression this far out can work in KY’s favor. Most models, especially GFS, generally shift back northwest within 3 days of the event. Getting a smidge more excited now but will focus on the flurries first, hoping an over achiever for Tuesday/Wednesday!

  3. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    The weekend system will slowly creep north.

  4. Msd says:

    Ahhh, the suppressed track. The northwest trend didn’t work out last year from my recollection. But many systems just fizzled and went pfft with no storm as cold overwhelmed everything. Time will tell for this one, certainly a more active season. Thanks Chris!

    • Cold-Rain says:

      Remember well..Not as cold so i would guess someone will see something..Believe last year Atlanta and other places got a decent snow this early..Déjà vu..

  5. Debbie says:

    Does anyone remember last Winters’ models? Geez! A week out, 3 days out, 24hrs. out….storm after storm, but other than a couple little flakes, nothing materialized until late (LATE!) Winter and early Spring-well, at least in my neck of the woods, then they were mostly those little bands that would dump about half a foot, melting within a couple of hours. I’m hoping this Winter will be a lot different, where Winter is “Winter”, for once in a long while! I’m an older Mom that hopes her young daughters get the chance to experience the same while they can enjoy it just as I did! (and while I am still able to get out there and enjoy it, too!)

  6. nasdaq says:

    Still a week out. I expect more shifts south; then, shifts back north. No idea where that ends up.

  7. BengalFan says:

    One thing for sure, Bengals won’t win another game this year!
    Let’s hope we can get some Snow Wins!!

  8. Jeff K. says:

    Debbie must be Schroeder’s wife.

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