Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the winter weather potential for the week ahead, including the late week/weekend storm system.

Colder air is moving in from the west right now and will only grow colder over the next few days. A stray shower is possible on Monday as temps stay in the upper 30s and low 40s for many. Areas of light snow and snow showers are likely Tuesday into Wednesday, with light accumulations showing up.

After a touch of rain and snow Thursday night, it’s full steam ahead toward a southern stream storm system. That rolls from west to east then tries to turn up the east coast. As we have talked about many times, the exact track is the determining factor on how much winter weather we get here in Kentucky.

The models will vary with the track from run to run and won’t settle in for a discernible trend for a few more days, so don’t take any one run to hear.

It’s fun to look at the Ensembles to see what they are saying. I typically show you the average map from the various runs of the different Ensembles. Here’s the average of the GFS Ensembles…

You can see how the average of the Ensembles is to bring a swath of snow across the state with our southern storm system. That smoothed average is made up of 21 different runs. If we look at each of those runs, you can see how the disagreement with where the best snow tracks…

The average of the European Ensembles from WeatherBell.com is for a similar swath of snow across the state, but is just a little south of the GFS Ensembles average…

That average comes from a whopping 51 different members. This is a heck of a spread showing up among those 51 different runs…

The new version of the GFS is still on bard with a farther north solution and is similar to what climatology suggests for this time of year…

As you can see, it’s going to be a fun week of tracking light snows and the potential for a bigger system by late Friday and Saturday. Not too shabby for the first week of December!

I’ll see you guys later tonight for the full update. Until then, make it a good evening. Take care


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6 Responses to Sunday Evening Update

  1. Mike S says:

    51-member spread? Hmm, just add one more and we can play with a full deck. Be nice to see a four of a kind though, weather style.

  2. Terry says:

    I will take e4 on the GFS run Alex for $500…lol☺

  3. Feederband says:

    E21 How bout it?

  4. Lotsasnow says:

    Local met here just said he thinks its going to be a weaker storm which will surpress it to the deep south and it may just be sunny here for weekend

  5. Cold-Rain says:

    Sure seen some way out there runs of the models today..Low stalling off of the NC coast and burying parts of NC..Parts of Georgia with over 20 inches of snow..Did like the newer GFS as it ticked back north a little..So maybe that’s a start to something..Good or bad have no ideal..lol..Guess it all will be sorted out Wed..

  6. Coreyfromtheky says:

    I.dont think anyone knows what’s going to happen tbh lol

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