Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Cold air continues to settle into the region from the northwest. This is being accompanied by a few showers that will change to snow showers later today into tonight. This kicks off a very wintry setup for the rest of the week as we watch to see what kind of impact a late week/weekend winter storm may have on our weather.

In the short term, temps continue to hang out in the upper 30s and low 40s. Showers will increase with flakes kicking in during the evening…

Periods of light snow and snow showers will be around Tuesday into Wednesday, with light accumulations likely. The best chance to put some snow on the ground is Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

The models are locked in on some light accumulations…

Canadian RGEM

HI Res NAM

NAM

GFS

A few delays and cancellations are possible Wednesday.

The next system moves in late Thursday into Thursday night and may put down some light accumulations…

As far as the late week and weekend winter storm potential goes… I have no changes. While we are definitely in the game to be impacted by this storm, it’s too early for any kind of specifics. It all depends on the track of the low and we are still a few days away from having that one figured out.

The Canadian continues with a big Kentucky hit…

The new version of the GFS is also a huge Kentucky hit…

The ICON has a similar setup…

The bias of the GFS is for the model to be too far south and east with storm systems. The current model is living up to that bias…

Of course, there’s always the chance of the blind squirrel finding the nut, but that kind of a setup seems pretty unlikely.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another blog update this evening. Make it a great day and take care.


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23 Responses to Monday Afternoon Update

  1. Matt says:

    Prediction: It ends up going just far enough North that most of us get bone cold 36 degree rain. And I’m fine with that because I don’t like losing power.

  2. Tom says:

    Special thanks to Chris for his explanation on the Euro bias and the thunderstorm complexes…convective issues are beyond my pay grade!

    • Teacher Nate says:

      Seems like in the early days of the blog, Chris did alot of that..explaining the nuances of patterns, forecasts, models and such. Its why I fell in love with the blog. Then…they slowly started to go away. Probably because of increased responsibility with the changes in his jobs. But none-the-less….I miss the more in-depth discussions.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Been getting colder here since last night. Went to bed and it was 51 degrees at our house, woke up this morning and it was 39. right now, it is at 39. We have a slight breeze too. Feels like 35. Clouds are getting thicker, but we did have some sunshine this morning. Couldn’t tell it now. Guessing we will see some type of precip at some point in the afternoon or evening.
    Never a dull moment in our weather these days, is there? If its gonna snow, I say, just bring it! Have a good afternoon, everyone.

  4. Lotsasnow says:

    I live in Columbus ohio mets here just said rain all the way up into southern ohio and snow north of 70

  5. Drew says:

    Will the snow showers tomorrow night be similar to last weeks snow that caused so many travel issues?

  6. Rolo says:

    Folks a easy start to winter means the new version of GFS is onto a thumper. Cold air in place ice on table for some, but I predict the Bailey hype machine into full effect come wed/thursday

  7. Dawnp007 says:

    Please, let it Snow!!!!!

  8. BubbaG says:

    CB a few years ago would be more enthusiastic about this weekend, but model burns through the years have made him a tad jaded 😉 GFS correction makes sense, considering a straight east path it had before would be really odd.

    • BengalFan says:

      Agree, I’m not even looking at snow or rain, I’m watching the prediction of where the low is going….It rarely goes directly straight east, It usually goes north east. But who knows if the low is going to go through Lex. (if so cold rain and ohio river gets all snow), or low tracks little south and CKY gets snow. I have a feeling that farther south sees rain.

    • Cold-Rain says:

      Yes..Still way to early to even think snow..Especially a big snow..So many things has to go right for this system..HP to the North,speed of the low,track of the low and probably a host of other things..lol..To me the biggest issue is can we get the cold in here and keep it funneling in when the precip arrives..Always a heavy chore especially this time of the year..

  9. BengalFan says:

    BTW, sorry Chris, but one term that gets on my nerves is “wintry weather”. Being a snow lover, that term to me equals not a great deal of snow…it means rain, sleet,freezing rain and a little snow…which isn’t pretty I’ll tell ya.

    • Terry says:

      Come live in SE KY….all snow is rare (big events) but mixed ‘wintry weather’ and cold rain only is almost always on the table! ☺

  10. Winterlover says:

    Well at least there’s a possibility on the table. We shall see how this plays out.

  11. MarkLex says:

    YES! I agree with another poster Chris – I’ve been on this blog since the very beginning and I’ve always heard you talk about convective feedback – but I really just had no clue what that meant. I’ve heard of ground clutter from radar sites…..but since you explained what convective feedback actually means now and have somewhat of an understanding what you’re talking about.

  12. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Gfs jumps back north

  13. Cold-Rain says:

    Newer GFS is crazy..No way i believe that until it actually falls..Notice the newer version seems to want to spit out high totals..Could be TT having issues..Anyways one heck of a run..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018120318&fh=168

  14. Lotsasnow says:

    Has a large storm this far out actually happened where it was forcast this far out i looked back and the answer is nooo! It will go south or north 100%

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