Updating The Snow Potential

Good evening, folks. Winter is back in the bluegrass state with rain showers changing to snow showers this evening. This sets the stage for rounds of light snows the next several days, with some accumulation a good bet. This may wind up as the appetizer to a bigger system impacting the region this weekend.

A touch of sleet is joining the rain and snow showers crossing the state this evening…

A cold northwest flow usually delivers snow showers to our region and that can increase if you have some embedded disturbances in that flow. That’s exactly what we have from alter Tuesday into Wednesday. That should be able to put down some light accumulating snows. Many areas can pick up a coating to 1″, with local 1″-2″ amounts possible in the east.

The models continue to grow a little more enthusiastic about the light snows…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Again, the best chance to put light snow on the ground is Tuesday night.

Another system is expected to move in here by late Thursday into Thursday night. Rain and snow develops and It could be another light snowfall showing up for some…

That brings us to the potential winter storm that could impact our weather this weekend. Let me say this is NOT even close to being set in stone, but the potential is certainly there. The models are showing a little better agreement, but still have some work to do.

The new version of the GFS continues to lay a smackdown on the region…

I’ve been talking about how the current version of the GFS has a bias of being too flat and too far east and south. Well, the late day run certainly shed that bias…

The European Model still has some feedback issues at the start of the storm, but it’s starting to shed those, too. Here’s the swath of snow from the latest run…

If we look at the average of the 51 member European Ensembles, you see a more consistent swath of snow across the state…

The GFS Ensembles are also enthusiastic…

As I said, this is nowhere near being set in stone, so let’s just hang tight and see how it plays out over the next few days.

Enjoy your evening and take care.


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9 Responses to Updating The Snow Potential

  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    It is looking highly possible.

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Sounds like a fun week of watching and soeculating and getting excited and/or disappointed. Or all of the above at some point! Either way, gonna be interesting!

  3. Cold-Rain says:

    Yes..Exciting just to have something to track this early..Snow or no snow,big snow or little snow makes no difference..Looking at the longer range the last week of December is looking interesting..

  4. LOUteach says:

    Thanks for the updates CB! Looking like we could have an interesting weekend? We shall see as usual. Sure would love to see everything covered in white!

  5. Mike says:

    This all looks great. But, Chris, we are traveling to Sheffield, England (central England) to spend Christmas with our English family. Can you start working up a forecast for me, please? We will need to know what to pack…

  6. Cold-Rain says:

    Icon getting on board..This is starting to look like a SE Ky,SW Virginia hit..Can it be..

    • Coreyfromtheky says:

      You do realize were still 5 days away right? Lol…you guys do deserve it though…yall been missing out for a few years

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