Tracking The Snow Chances

Good Tuesday, everyone. Periods of light snow continue to settle into the region today and will carry us into Wednesday. This should bring some light accumulations to many areas, with another light snow maker lurking for later in the week. It’s once into the weekend that a much bigger storm system has a chance to impact our weather.

The rounds of light snow and snow showers today through early Wednesday may have some overachieving bands, especially across the eastern half of the state. Much of the light sticking snow waits until after dark to kick in. Here’s a rough outline of the light snowfall potential…

Many areas will be getting in on a coating to 1″, with some of those overachieving snow streaks showing up in the outlined areas.

The models are going in this direction…

Hi Res NAM


A few slick spots are a good bet later tonight and early Wednesday. This may cause a few delays or cancellations.

The next system arrives late Thursday and looks fairly light. It should be in the form of a rain/snow mix, with a period of light snow setting up for some…

That brings us to the rather complicated setup for a developing winter storm that may impact our region this coming weekend into early next week. Regular readers know I’ve been tracking this storm signal for well over a week now and it continues to strongly show up. The devil is, as always, in the details.

As I’ve mentioned, it’s going to be another day or two before  we see the models get a firm grip on how to handle this storm system ejecting out of the southwest. That rolls from west to east across the deep south, but has an inverted trough into our region. That storm then tries to turn the corner and may actually slow down in doing so.

The exact track of this low is crucial to how much snow we can get around here. Some models absolutely crush areas of the state, while others show a lighter brand of snow and even some ice.

The new version of the GFS has been the steadiest of the models over the past few days. It has had a very consistent track and evolution…

You can see how the model keeps that second little system spinning over our region, keeping snow going into early next week. That has been something showing up more and more and has my attention.

While the European Model is still having some feedback issues, notice how it also keeps that second system going into early next week…

Both of those models have some insane snow totals showing up because of that slow moving system on top of us. Of course… That does not mean they are right! I’m just breaking down the models for you guys. 😉

The current version of the GFS is still playing catch up with the rest of the models with the whole evolution and track…

The south and east bias of the model continues to be in full effect.

The Canadian Model doesn’t bother with the second system and, instead, brings this whole thing out and bombs it out up the east coast…

The average snowfall from the 21 member GFS Ensembles has a healthy swath from west to east across the state…

At this point, it’s going to be awfully difficult to keep Kentucky from seeing some kind of snow impact from this winter storm. Will it be a small event or a big event where you live? That’s a question I cannot answer at this moment, but I suspect I will have a better idea later today.

If you’re a winter weather love… Wow is about all you can say. We’ve already had 14 days with winter precipitation and it’s only December 4th. Also, it may snow somewhere in Kentucky on each of the next 7 days. Yowza.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, let’s track todays snow showers and light snows…

Enjoy the day and take care.

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34 Responses to Tracking The Snow Chances

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I can’t wait to see armchair prognostications from the contrarians on here. Ha! 😉

    • Andy Rose says:

      You just want someone to argue with. 😉

      • BubbaG says:

        True dat!

        Currently seems 50/50 (light vs heavy), which is better than usual chances. Anybody that says anything now is of course guessing. Mets are not even confident with either direction, but a better than usual chance is currently there.

  2. B H says:

    Looks like Virginia is for snow lovers right now at this point.

  3. Terry says:

    The biggest difference between this year and 20l4-2015 is that we are already colder/snowier. I think we are following more closer to 1995-1996 season☺. Again, I wasn’t alive in the 70s or 60s, but 1995-1996 season was awesome in SE KY for a consistent, snowy Dec to March! At least when that analog was thrown out there, I can relate back to my childhood. I am excited and think this going to be a fun season!!!

    • Prelude says:

      I prefer 80 degree weather, not a fan of the snow or as some refer to it including myself “the white blanket of death.”

    • Jimbo says:

      I agree Terry, as I have said before. Even though I am over 3 hours north of you, my climate is very similar. The Winters of 95/96 and 77/78 were the benchmark Winters for me. Other years had their moments, “big storms” but for total accumulation and consistent cold/snow. Those two stand out. I would welcome another year like either of those two.

  4. Cold-Rain says:

    Guess if you like your power being on you’re hoping the models are wrong..That would be one heavy wet snow..It’s getting close to where one can start following the operational models and take them seriously..

  5. Kellye says:

    I recently moved to Asheville from Bourbon County. I still get my forecasts from Chris Bailey!
    The local meteorologist says it never snows more than 10″ here. Well, maybe a few times in all of history. These maps must not know that fact.

  6. Lotsasnow says:

    Looks like the new gfs has the snow in ohio and rain in ky thats more realistic

  7. nasdaq says:

    Still in ensemble mode, But we can still dream with the Euro runs

  8. THE ROOSTER says:

    I’d hate to be a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk!!!

  9. bgbecky says:

    Just had a pretty hefty sleet shower move through my portion of town in BG…temporarily cause white decks and roofs!

  10. drew says:

    For eastern ky it looks like the timing of this event will be from sunday possibly all the way to tuesday? Am I looking at this correctly?

  11. CJ says:

    What are your thoughts on the weather in Boone NC this weekend, I am supposed to be there to help pack shoe box’s. Thanks

  12. Winter Warlock says:

    While the weekend storm track is completely up in the air so to speak (no pun intended) this is when the model watching is fun as they flip back and forth run to run till we get closer to the event and dial it in. Love watching whether we get it or not. Fingers crossed though! Have a great day!!

  13. BubbaG says:

    The key also is if CB does not get into threat mode talk, he’s probably not thinking it’s going to happen, regardless of blog hyperbole.

  14. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I have enjoyed reading all the remarks and comments this morning. It seems we always have to have this back and forth when we talk about a possible big winter event., I saw one about the winters of 77/78. Well, 76/77 was not much different. We got a whole lot of snow here, and it was on the ground for over a month because it kept snowing on top o snow. My husband (newlyweds then) lost his wedding ring scraping snow off of our windshield with his hand and we didn’t find it until a month later. That is why I can remember it so well. I am just intrigued with the possibility of a big winter storm this early in the season. We seem to not usually be talking like this until a little later in the season. After all, it is technically still autumn. Either way, it will be fun to watch and speculate on what happens. And we will take whatever we get and move on. Have a great day everyone.

  15. jackson says:

    Keeping a very close eye on the weekend setup here in my neck of the woods, the NE side of Pikeville in the Belfry area. Could be a very close call it appears as of right now. I’ve got the generators ready to go so let it snow!! 🙂

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