Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. Rounds of light snow and snow showers continue to weaken across the region this afternoon. Several areas got in on some overachieving snow showers and snow squalls, and that’s been the theme of the young winter, so far. It’s a pattern that takes every opportunity to produce winter weather around here.

That trend continues through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The weekend is when things get interesting as a winter storm takes aim at the region. I will get to that in a moment.

Let’s begin with the current rounds of snow showers slowly winding down…

The next light snow maker rolls in quickly from the northwest Thursday evening into Thursday night…

That can lay down an inch or less of snow, leading to the potential for a few more delays and cancellations for Friday.

This takes us to the weekend winter storm potential that isn’t very far away from reaching THREAT status here on KWC. My thoughts remain pretty much unchanged from what I’ve been sharing with you over the past several days. I’ll leave this running for the time being…

I will make some adjustments to that on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm today.

In terms of the model trends, most are about where you would expect them from 3-4 days away from an event starting. The GFS is much better than the past few days, but still has too much of a progressive bias…

That still delivers a healthy hit of winter weather to the state.

The Canadian is more robust with that winter storm hit…

The new version of the GFS is more similar to the Canadian that it’s soon to be defunct brother…

The latest average from the GFS Ensembles show a wide swath across the state, with a smackdown across the eastern half of the state…

Some quick thoughts:

  • Confidence of a winter storm impact is increasing.
  • The details of this impact, such as locations and amounts, are still not known.
  • All forms of winter precipitation are on the table for this possible storm system.

I will have another update this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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53 Responses to Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    Bring it!!!

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. So if you are feeling a little more confident, then somebody is going to get some snow in the state. I also saw where you said all forms of winter precip are on the table, so I hope that does not mean a cold rain for a lot of us, or ice. Just a good healthy snow woul,d be ok. Looking forward to seeing your update at 4 on KYT and on here as well later.

  3. Russell says:

    Hope west ky gets a good hit!

  4. Lotsasnow says:

    Will be lucky if ky sees any snow at all models will start shifting nw tonight.

  5. Kellye Pikul says:

    I recently moved from Bourbon County to Asheville.
    My first winter here is off to an interesting start after “enjoying” record rainfall all summer/fall.
    Still get my info from Chris Bailey!

  6. Jimbo says:

    He said all forms of precip are on the table. Which means the Huntington tri-state area is in for 34 degree rain and then the dreaded backside flurries.

  7. Rickie H says:

    It’s going to be very busy on the blog. We got our generator ready in case we have to have it. Thank you Mr Bailey for keeping us informed.

  8. Wes says:

    How many inches of snow would that be for Southeastern Kentucky?

  9. BubbaG says:

    Looks very possible- especially an eastern smack-down chance. Last time we had a bigger snow chance for the state like this was December 1989. It snowed off and on into February after that.

    Some pretty, easier to manage snow is okay by me- our friends and family in the eastern part of the state can have the heavier stuff 😉 🙂

  10. Bobt says:

    Could it be a dome buster for Knox Co. ? Most of Kentucky has seen some pretty good snows the last few years, but this area has still not busted the dome of the late 90s. Wouldn’t it be odd to see a rare December thumper to do it? Still doubt it happens.

  11. Teacher Nate says:

    Any ideas on the beginning of the impact for middle/eastern KY? I have a pheasant hunt scheduled at the Clay WMA on Sat. and was curious if I should take the camper to stay the weekend as opposed to going home that afternoon…..

  12. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Anyone have the latest run of the euro?

  13. Cold-Rain says:

    Wow..All of Harlan in the 17 in area..Running along letcher,pike co..Also Half of Knox co in the 17 in band..Lol..Here’s the map..

  14. JimCVG says:

    I’ll take what the Canadian model is giving all weekend long.

  15. Prelude says:

    According to the Euro on this particular run northern Jefferson County in Louisville would get a inch of snow while SW Jefferson County in Louisville could receive 6 inches. Talk about a very sharp cut off from barely any snow to a thumping of snow in the same county.

  16. Coreyfromtheky says:

    I honestly have no idea what’s gonna happen…were about 4.5 days out so should get a firm grasp on it soon

  17. Drew says:

    If the infamous northwest shift occurs most of the KY could be pounded with snow. Thoughts on the shift?

  18. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Apparently euro ensembles are more north than the latest euro run

  19. Jimmie says:

    I’d be happier if this were just a rain/snow system. The potential is there for these southern systems to turn into a mess.

  20. MarkLex says:

    I mean, wouldn’t a northwest shift be the most likely since we’re not talking about bitter arctic air suppression? Just moderately cold temps – upper 20s low 30s?

    I also agree CLT would have a hard time getting 16 inches of snow this early in the season. When we had the superstorm 93 in NC, I believe they only got a couple of inches, although Charlotte has had 14-inch snow totals in the past. It could happen…but that’s always been Jan to March for them usually.

  21. Special K says:

    All this means for Bowling Green is a nice cold rain. It will stay around 34 degrees and rain, seen it a million times. Then at the very end of the precip it will turn to snow and we will get a dusting.

    • Jimbo says:

      That is almost always what happens in the Huntington WV tri-state area. And I am almost sure the 34 degree rain will play again if were a betting man.

  22. Dee says:

    My daughter has a trip to Pigeon Forge planned this weekend. I know she’ll be fine leaving on Friday, it’s the trip home that I’m worried about! Any thoughts?

  23. Drew says:

    Prelude, so you don’t think it will shift much more north?

  24. bjenks says:

    IMO the Ohio river counties will be the center sweet spot except for the far SE counties in higher locations. NW shift will happen as this low will strengthen and pull North as it pulls the warm moisture from the Gulf into it. Everyone should be on guard for a Winter Storm. I see a threat coming from CB overnight.

  25. Joyce says:

    Anyone have any new information on the storm coming?

  26. Dwhite1990 says:

    18z GFS still delivering a thumping on E/SE KY.

  27. Jared from Letcher County says:

    NWS Jackson in their latest discussion is saying 1-2 inches for the I-64 corridor, 4-7 inches in the middle to the Virginia border area, and 1-2 inches down around the TN border. They stress that these amounts could go up and down greatly as the event draws near.

  28. BengalFan says:

    Let’s hope threat mode is the title for next update

  29. JaredKy says:

    The best thing about this storm is that Doucheberg has been on vacation and we haven’t had to deal with his rants about other mets all week

  30. jackson says:

    Got my generators ready here in Belfry, let it snow.

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