Good afternoon, everyone. Rounds of light snow and snow showers continue to weaken across the region this afternoon. Several areas got in on some overachieving snow showers and snow squalls, and that’s been the theme of the young winter, so far. It’s a pattern that takes every opportunity to produce winter weather around here.

That trend continues through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The weekend is when things get interesting as a winter storm takes aim at the region. I will get to that in a moment.

Let’s begin with the current rounds of snow showers slowly winding down…

The next light snow maker rolls in quickly from the northwest Thursday evening into Thursday night…

That can lay down an inch or less of snow, leading to the potential for a few more delays and cancellations for Friday.

This takes us to the weekend winter storm potential that isn’t very far away from reaching THREAT status here on KWC. My thoughts remain pretty much unchanged from what I’ve been sharing with you over the past several days. I’ll leave this running for the time being…

I will make some adjustments to that on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm today.

In terms of the model trends, most are about where you would expect them from 3-4 days away from an event starting. The GFS is much better than the past few days, but still has too much of a progressive bias…

That still delivers a healthy hit of winter weather to the state.

The Canadian is more robust with that winter storm hit…

The new version of the GFS is more similar to the Canadian that it’s soon to be defunct brother…

The latest average from the GFS Ensembles show a wide swath across the state, with a smackdown across the eastern half of the state…

Some quick thoughts:

  • Confidence of a winter storm impact is increasing.
  • The details of this impact, such as locations and amounts, are still not known.
  • All forms of winter precipitation are on the table for this possible storm system.

I will have another update this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.