Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s another cold night ahead for the bluegrass state as we focus on additional rounds of winter weather. The next system rolling in is rather light, but the one behind it has the chance to become a full blown winter storm for our region.

I have no changes on the overall theme of the forecast going forward. A touch of mix and snow moves in Thursday evening into the wee hours of Friday. That may put down some very light accumulations. during this time.

Let’s get to the portion of the program everyone is interested in and that’s the weekend potential winter storm. The time frame we are working is from Late Saturday through Monday. I’ve adjusted the potential map from earlier…

The area in red is there just because that’s where my confidence is highest at the moment. I do expect a full swath of winter weather from west to east across the state, but that’s the area with the absolute best chance of getting in on full blown winter storm material.

Let’s check on the computer models to see what they have to say. The European isn’t as far north as last night’s run, but has that west-east band of snow and some mix…

The average of the 51 member European Ensembles is farther north with the axis of snow…

The new version of the GFS is also a little farther northwest with the axis of snow, especially with the second system spinning Sunday and Monday…

That’s also a crushing hit for parts of the southeast.

The regular GFS is trying, but the progressive bias of the model continues to show…

A likely upgrade to Threat mode is on the way tonight. I’ll see you then. Make it a good one and take care.


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43 Responses to Wednesday Evening Update

  1. Bob says:

    When will we see the first call snowfall map Chris?

  2. Drew says:

    Please shift northwest!

  3. 37.89°N 84.36°W says:

    Puh-leeeeze verify to the MAXIMUM!!!!!

  4. SHAAK says:

    Where are all the nay-sayers?

  5. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris! Now it gets REAL interesting. Wondering where the thing winds up, and who gets hit. You seem to be confident that somewhere in our state there is going to be a good snow! Waiting to see what you think in the morning. Have a good evening everyone. Looking forward to the next update!

  6. Lotsasnow says:

    Well that forcast is way different than other forcasts .most i see i about 2 inchs of snow for ky but southern ohio may se 6 to 8 inchs that nw shift will show up on models on Saturday.

  7. MarkLex says:

    the highest totals on those maps are right where I grew up in Transylvania count NC. I never remember a December snow of that magnitude growing up…It was ways Jan to March.

  8. Knack says:

    I’m in the only part of Kentucky in only threat mode.This storm will be a bust for me…What a shame

  9. Matt says:

    I think all mets in the region are reluctant to pull the trigger on this, can you blame them as many times as the models have smoked us over the years?
    Does it look like the bulk of this will fall during the day Sunday? If so it may change over to rain for a while which would cut into totals significantly.. or at least thats what Jackson seems to think.
    We’re headed down the stretch now, it’ll be fun to watch the model runs roll in the next 48 hrs and see if they stand their ground..

  10. Hack says:

    I will be flying back in to NKY from NYC (Go Cats) early Monday morning. What’s the odds I get stuck?

  11. snow princess says:

    As always, for the most accurate forecast, take out your ruler post event and measure it. There ya go folks, this tidbit of wisdom is on the house, lol! 😛

    • StormtrackerWV says:

      ROTFL!!!! 🙂

    • Debbie says:

      Or do like my Papaw always said…”don’t watch the weather unless you watch out your window” and that held true for me this morning. Last night they said the heaviest would be in western and S.Central KY and way to the east of me here in Bardstown. I got up, looked out my window as always and had almost 3″ of snow on the ground! Very surprised!

  12. Winterlover says:

    No dome here if this sceniro plans out.Time will tell

  13. BengalFan says:

    I love threat mode!
    I hope it snows at least 6 in here in Big Richmond.
    I really wish Chris could put a threat mode on Coach Lewis to leave the Bengals

  14. Terry says:

    Liquid equivalent is around 2 inches for far SE KY…if we can stay mostly wet snow from start to finish, it would both HISTORIC and DAMAGING!

    First winter storm watches for TX/Oklahoma got issued a few hours back!

    • BubbaG says:

      If it pans out- seems likely.

    • BB says:

      Yes. The snow would stick to everything. I’m going to say sleet may cut into some of this totals. Temps will be very marginal through the entire event, but precip rates may help keep it all snow through evap cooling

    • Prelude says:

      I hope you get 2 feet of snow with thunder and lightning. I’m pulling hard for SE Kentucky. I don’t want it no part of the white blanket of death as I am the exception and not the rule for snow on the blog.

    • Prelude says:

      Also don’t forget with wet snow the snow ratios will be way lower than a dry fluffy snow which can cut down snow totals quite a bit. Also got to consider sleet and the possibility of freezing rain mixing in which also hurts snow totals.

      • Cold-Rain says:

        Exactly..Highly doubt what the models are showing..Hope it does..Check that..I like a warm toasty house.. More like 7-1 ratios probably which would cut totals way down along with the sleet,possible zr..

  15. Wondering says:

    NKY snow deprivation depression. 🙁

  16. John-Austin says:

    I think it’s truly awesome that we have CB issuing a potential Winter Storm Threat before Christmas this year. Heck, I can think of many winters where we didn’t see more than a flake until early-mid January!

  17. Jimbo says:

    The Met’s in the Huntington Tri-State area are still aboard the rain train. Or think it will stay south of the I64 corridor. I hope they are wrong about the rain and the miss to the south.

    • Prelude says:

      I was hoping I can find a met to make me happy and say sunny and warm with a high temperature of 80, yeah no wishful thinking and wrong time of the year.

    • BubbaG says:

      So far seems the only met on the snow train is CB, since all others are expecting a big northern shift. Tomorrow should tell the tail. Still sticking with 50/50, which is WAY better than normal. Very good chance, barring a big shift north.

      This is not the first time BTW that CB was on his own for a day or two. He’s batting about .667 😉

  18. Cold-Rain says:

    Believe CB will go low on totals..Nothing set in stone yet..To many thing’s at play to be comfortable..Warm nose is real in the SE..I’m guessing 4-8 with possibly more in the extreme SE parts..That’s is if he makes a forecast..lol

  19. Cold-Rain says:

    Yuck..Looked like Euro went south and way south..

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