Good Thursday, folks. As we inch closer to the weekend and a possible winter storm impact, I was hoping for a little more help from the computer forecast models. Sadly, that’s not the case. The overnight runs are giving us the biggest model fight of the event, so far.

Given the little fight going on, I want  to see a few runs today before possibly upgrading to a Winter Storm THREAT.

I’ll get to that storm in a moment, but we have another burst of light snow to track before it arrives.

A weak front drops in from northwest to southeast this evening and should produce a band of mixed showers of rain and snow that go over to light snow as it moves across the state…

Some light accumulations are possible in a few spots.

In terms of the weekend winter storm potential, we still have a lot of questions to be answered and details to be ironed out. Nothing is set in stone and may not be for another day or so. Given all that, I will keep this map going for the time being…

The GFS matches up pretty well with that…

Here’s the snapshot of that model run for snowfall…

Freezing rain forecast from that particular run…

The Canadian Model is a smidge farther south, but is also similar…

Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

The new version of the GFS had been super consistent in how it was handling this storm system. The latest run took a little stroll to the south…

The European Model also took a south stroll, but it really looks to be having some big issues again…

The Euro has been the most inconsistent of all the models to this point and that’s sad to see.

When we find operational models in disagreement, it’s always good to look at the Ensembles. They are made up of many different runs that show an average. The GFS Ensembles are holding serve from what they had earlier…

Here are the 21 individual ensemble members that make up the average you see above…

You can see the majority of those members have a fairly solid west to east swath of snow across the state. Only a couple do not.

I will be back with your midday update and hopefully some better clarity on this potential. 🙂

Make it a good one and take care.