Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. My time is rather limited for this update, but I’m gonna get as much information into this post as I possible can. Obviously, it’s all eyes on the weekend and a potential winter storm impacting the bluegrass state.

This system moves in late Saturday through Sunday and Monday, but the exact areas of impact and extent of those impacts are still in question. More on that in a moment.

We have a cold front dropping in tonight and it will have a band of light snow along and behind the front. Some very light accumulations are possible overnight for some areas. Here’s the radar…

I had hoped to have a better handle on the weekend winter storm potential, but I’m still doing a balancing act based on some big model disagreement.

Half of this storm system is now within the range of the NAM. The model only goes through early Sunday evening, but has the evolution of this storm being similar to what most models had been suggesting until the past few days…

That run of the NAM has a mega cutoff to accumulating snow on the north side, but puts a smackdown across the southern half of the state…

The new version of the GFS is getting back to what it had been showing up until recently and is very close to the NAM…

The average of the 21 members of the GFS Ensembles continue to hammer southeastern Kentucky with snow, but is also farther north and west than the current operational GFS…

The operation GFS, which is about to be replaced by the new version, isn’t too dissimilar to the above models, but it’s having issues with the thermal profile across the state. It’s really the only model showing a ton of freezing rain…

The temps on the GFS are whacky.

The Canadian Model is the farthest southeast of the entire model suite, but still manages to put down a lot of snow in southeastern Kentucky.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will throw you another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


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53 Responses to Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

  1. Bjenks says:

    Meh!!!!

    THINK SNOW!

  2. feederband says:

    Tom Petty song of the day.
    The waiting is the hardest part
    Every day you see one more card
    You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
    The waiting is the hardest part…

  3. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB!

    Still seems that the more southbound it is, the less mainly snow and the more of a nasty mix, except for higher elevations. Really did look like the best snow chance since 1989 for the state….. Trying to be positive, but the models are not really helping today. Again, the models are truly cruel outlooking beasts for snow.

    • Tim McHenry says:

      how can it be the best chance since ’89 since we got thumped repeatedly just a few years ago by successive 1-2ft snows? did you mean for this time of year?

  4. BB says:

    Temp Profiles are going to be key. Keep an eye on how models are handling precip types in northern Arkansas. The models that handle that well, will handle our precip types well.

  5. Terry says:

    Even if the whole state and surrounding counties on other states were to miss this storm, and I don’t think we all will, next week is already trending much colder with more chances!

  6. Rodger Dodger says:

    Don’t forget how the end result is almost always a more northern solution. Rodger in Dodger

  7. BF says:

    Hopefully we will get some snow because it looks like this weekend is our last chance for winter weather in December if the CFS is correct. It’s calling for milder weather for the eastern half of the US for the rest of this month, and cold weather to return in January.

  8. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hope the models calm down and get together soon or no grocery store will have any milk or bread for the next 4-5 days!!! Seriously, I do hope you get a better idea soon. Co want to know whether to be excited or not!!! 😉 Have a good afternoon all!

  9. Trent says:

    Anyone have the euro snowfall map

  10. B H says:

    I like the three S computer run. No – Salt, No Snow, and No Shovel.

  11. Cold-Rain says:

    Euro looked about the same to me as last night run,maybe a tick North..At least the bleeding has stopped going SE..Still targeting parts of Extreme SE parts with 8-12..(Harlan,Bell,letcher)..

  12. StormtrackerWV says:

    We need to consult that one really-far-out-there model from last year; what was it, the Austrian model or something?!!?

  13. feederband says:

    Long time Louisville Met tweeted that Louisville, and much of the area, to miss out. Not much of a chance for a shift at this point.

    • Debbie says:

      The same met who, in Jan.’94,predicted a ‘heavy snow” about a week out, but by the Sunday evening before, had started to agree w/the others locally by forecasting “an inch or less” for the L-Ville Metro(as it scrolled across a 49ers.game). While I have the utmost respect for him, as I do CB & others, this may come down to a “now-casting” type situation, much like we’ve had to do in recent years w/ most big storms. I mean, think about it…the models all last winter had us up for some nice snowfall, but, and speaking only of my little piece of acreage here in Nelson, we got nothing from expected and got dumped on in the late winter/early spring by little meandering convective bands that set up on top of us (and wherever else that got 6-10″ out of ’em!) But let’s still keep our hopes up. Ain’t over yet and if it pans out, good, and if it doesn’t, that still all good. Just hope the next one in line is better!!! 🙂

  14. BengalFan says:

    Why is it now late Saturday into Sunday???Has it slowed down? The other day Chris thought it was moving into the area on Friday(then staying around till monday or so..).

    • B H says:

      What I have read at this point any snow will be mixed with rain in Southern Kentucky then changing to all snow. Nws doesn’t give any totals. Sounds like a slushy mess.

  15. Joyce says:

    When do the next models come out?

  16. Dara says:

    We’re literally 60+ hours away with the low just coming onto land. Saying this is set in stone is hardly accurate. Some waffle well past the 48hr mark and some end up as nowcasting events. I’m not understanding how we’re so surprised that the models aren’t zoned in yet?

  17. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Winter Storm watches going up.

  18. Jimbo says:

    Terry, in Harlan should be getting excited about now. Winter Storm Watches went up in the neighboring Virginia counties. Looks like a miss for WV unless you are in a couple of the Virginia border counties.

    • Melva says:

      🙁 was looking forward to a good snow this weekend here in Huntington.

      Oh well. Still fun and exciting to follow the weather blog!

  19. B H says:

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
    331 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

    …WINTER STORM TO IMPACT OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY…

    .Low pressure will track from the southwest U.S., to the Gulf
    Coast states through Saturday while cold high pressure builds
    across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. This low will then move
    off the southeast coast Sunday into Monday. With the colder air in
    place, a prolonged period of snow is expected, starting as early
    as Saturday night, and lasting into Monday. Based on the forecast
    track, the heaviest snow is expected to occur across southern
    Virginia, into northwest North Carolina.

    NCZ004>006-VAZ007-009>014-016-017-022-032-033-043-044-058-WVZ042-
    070445-
    /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0005.181209T0500Z-181210T1600Z/
    Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
    Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-
    Pittsylvania-Halifax-Mercer-
    Including the cities of Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville, Tazewell,
    Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski,
    Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke, Salem, Stuart, Rocky Mount,
    Martinsville, Danville, South Boston, and Bluefield
    331 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    MONDAY MORNING…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
    inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

    * WHERE…Southern West Virginia, Southwest Virginia mountains,
    east to southside Virginia, including the Roanoke Valley.

    * WHEN…From late Saturday night through Monday morning.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult to
    impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
    commute. Power outages may occur.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    This Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
    snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest
    forecasts.

  20. Jim B says:

    Bet on the Euro

  21. Winterlover says:

    This gonna be one those systems it’s a close call what to say untill the last minute.

  22. BubbaG says:

    LOL! CB just tweeted a +4″ snow map probability, none of KY but the border. Looks like we are in Dumb and Dumber chance territory.

    Almost at the point of putting a fork in it and call it done is seems. Back to, don’t believe until 24 hours out, mode. Done!

  23. Jim B says:

    Another yawner for central Ky

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