Good Friday, folks. As we head into the weekend, the winter storm potential is still as clear as mud. The models continue to fight more than a family arguing politics at the dinner table… And that’s saying something. Given this battle, I’m not making any changes to the Winter Storm Threat to areas of the south and southeast.

This system hasn’t even formed yet, so the models are still struggling with how to put all the storm ingredients together.

The two heavy hitters in the modeling world are the GFS and the European Models. They are giving only far southern and southeastern Kentucky some snow action, and it’s much lighter than the other models. You can see this well on the GFS…

As of this writing, it’s those two models against the rest of the modelling world. The NAM continues to be north and west with the snow and freezing rain shield…

That particular run put a hurting on southeastern Kentucky…

The Hi-Res NAM only goes through daybreak Sunday, but is even farther north and west with the storm system…

Here’s the snow forecast from that same run…

Both of the NAM models are spitting out some freezing rain accumulations, too.

The new version of the GFS is more similar to the NAM fam than it is to the GFS and Euro Duo…

The Canadian Model has a similar scenario…

A few notes to consider:

  • This system isn’t slated to impact the region until Saturday night and Sunday, so we still have plenty of model runs to go through.
  • I’m hopeful we can get a little better consensus  with the 12z model runs, but, given all the players on the weather field, that may still be pushing it.
  • The farther south and southeast you live, the greater the risk of this storm impacting you.
  • I will have a first call map later today, for wherever this storm ultimately decides to go.
  • It’s pretty cool to have a storm come from a signal I first picked up on nearly 2 weeks ago here on KWC.

Speaking of storm signals, I’ve already been laying the ground work for the next one to potentially impact our region…

I will have your regular updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Friday and take care.