Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin by saying I have no substantial changes to my thoughts from the past few days. The Winter Storm THREAT continues for southern and southeastern Kentucky, as the models keep bouncing around. When that happens, I’ve found it’s best not to get caught up in knee jerk reactions and stay the course. That’s where I am, right now. Will that change later today? Maybe so.

The low is just now beginning to form, so it makes sense the models are still struggling with everything. Let this storm develop and then we will see what the late afternoon and evening models have to say about this thing.

Let’s star with the new version of the GFS. It jumped ship with the storm with the 6z run, but is back on board with the very next run this morning. It still targets the south and southeast…

Here’s where the snow and ice show up on that particular run…

The Hi Res NAM is targeting some of the same areas of the south and southeast…

The Canadian Model family had been a miss for Kentucky. The latest runs are now the farthest north and west of the bunch. Here’s the short range Canadian that only goes through daybreak Sunday…

That takes the snow and ice along and north of Interstate 64.

The regular version of the Canadian is similar…

The snow forecast from that model looks like what had been showing up on most models the past few days, with a sharp gradient between no snow and heavy snow…

The UKMET is actually pretty far north with the precipitation shield into Kentucky…

This brings us to the NAM and GFS. Both models only offer a glancing blow to the southeastern corner of the state…

NAM

GFS

Here’s what this boils down to…. It’s all about how strong the high pressure is across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The stronger that high is, the better the chance it pushes much of this system to our south and southeast. The weaker that high, the better opportunity we have for this storm to move more to the north.

In looking at the temps across the region as of this writing, the NAM and GFS may be too strong with that high as the numbers are outpacing the model forecasts.

Let’s see what the afternoon and evening models have to say, then we can talk more. Until then, this ain’t my first rodeo in dealing with a setup like this. History tells me to stay the course.

I will have updates on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and here on KWC later in the evening. Make it a great one and take care.


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45 Responses to Friday Afternoon Update

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    But what are the armchair meteorologists saying? #sarcasm

  2. Tom says:

    Excellent effort to explain. Much appreciated.

  3. jackson says:

    Winter forecasting in this part of the country must be brutal lol.

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I trust your judgement and until you say what you are confident with, I’m ok with waiting. If we do get snow, it’s early in the season for us. So for me it would be a bonus. Hopefully the models will. One to some kind of agreement, good or bad, soon. Got plans to make! Have a great afternoon everyone.

  5. Beka Williamson says:

    Stay the course….I love it! Life lessons in meteorology.

  6. nasdaq says:

    the ukmet i find interesting, on to the euro. this may not be ovefr just yet for se ky

  7. MB says:

    No milk and bread run needed… Hysteria avoided!!!

  8. Troy says:

    Easy come easy go…best part for southern shift means less rain as well…

  9. Joe DeRosa says:

    Unless the high over the Ohio breaks down significantly, South-Central Kentucky (Warren County & environs) appears to be a miss. We’ll see precipitation, but likely it will be of the melted variety.
    However, the following weekend’s system looks VERY interesting!

  10. Winter Warlock says:

    Will not be surprised one bit to see the models shift North. Is what it is though.

  11. Kat says:

    What do you think he means by his last tweet?
    “whiffs? sorry if this is a stupid question.

  12. Todd says:

    no mention of the infamous nWest shift, how many times has Ky been in the sweet spot only to see a storm like this shift 100 miles north and put us in a cold rain while Indiana and Ohio get the snow. Just saying?

  13. MarkLex says:

    Tulsa was under a Winter Storm Watch yesterday….Now no watch at all. This could trend north but don’t bet on it. But there’s still a LOT of winter to go.

    • Debbie says:

      I have folks that live about 25 miles SE of Tulsa, and it used to be a “given” that whatever they got far as winter wx.(or basically ANY kind of storm system, any season?!) would almost be a GUARENTEE here(I live near Bardstown)-in fact, they would always call us about 1-2 days out to get us prepared for any kind of severe wx, and they were NEVER wrong!? I talked w/ my uncle(he’s 84-the only “Dad” I ever knew…)Wed. on his b-day and we were talking about it while I was trying to fix the furnace…..we were having major furnace issues and he was worried, so he called about an hour ago to ask if we had it fixed(yes!) and said (quote) “Weelll..they ain’t callin’ for much here now like they were, but I still thought I oughta call youn’s and prepare for something…”
      I know. Sounds silly, but sometimes it’s best to listen, even if it doesn’t come to fruition?

      • MarkLex says:

        Yea – I have family that lives in Owa-s-s-o just outside of Tulsa. Most systems do go north/northwest from there.

  14. Jim B says:

    Next… put a fork in it… except for maybe far southeastern ky, and I mean extreme far southeastern Ky. Next system, next week, is all rain.

  15. Denise says:

    When will you be giving out a first call?

  16. BubbaG says:

    I’m lost. One tweet CB says it’s moved north to 64 again, one tweet it’s whiffing south KY, and another it’s more north so now on south KY again. The trail of progression seems contradicting.

  17. Cold-Rain says:

    Didn’t say it’s whiffing south..Read the tweet..Said it no longer whiffs southern /SE ky/farther NW from earlier runs..

    • BubbaG says:

      Still does not seem to make sense, unless the movement north meant it was missing that area in the model runs.

      Here’s my take: The southern suppressed hard due east flow makes no sense, so the mets are kind of flying blind with the models. CB must be going nuts right now.

  18. Terry says:

    I think this event likely want be memorable but believe us border counties at least get a last minute advisory or maybe a low end surprise Winter Storm Warning….seen it happen too many times over the years! Still surprised we don’t have at least a Special Weather Statement yet since within 36 hours. Oh well.

    • Cold-Rain says:

      Need it to keep ticking north..Precip is nothing like it was so more the NW the better..Of course there temp issues..Kinda looks border line to me..Anyways you’re in a good spot so hopefully some will get a good snow..

      • Terry says:

        I think only accumulation is Hal Rogers to about Pikeville on SE. I am only guessing, but I could see some get 3 to 6. That is about as impressed as I am and doubt anyone comes in higher than that in KY accept maybe at 4,000 ft on Black Mt…that Solis my first and only call☺

        • Terry says:

          …suppose to say, …”that is my first and only call.”

          • Cold-Rain says:

            I would agree on the amount..Believe Harlan, Bell and other border counties could receive more if ice/sleet can stay away..

            • Terry says:

              Believe me when I say this: I would love to be wrong if we end up over 6 inches…I highly doubt it but I would gladly apologize for my bad forecast of low totals…lol☺☺

  19. Mike S says:

    Hang in there, CB. The odds are stacked against you. NWS offices don’t want to bite. My local Mets aren’t concerned. Possibly far east or southeast KY stand best chance of advisory or warning status. The next run of the NAM is my final take, then I’m throwing in the towel.

  20. TeachLou says:

    Thanks for the updates CB. Don’t envy you on this system. Would love to see some snow here in LOU this weekend, but it will be what it will be. Winter is just getting started! Thanks for all of the information and explanations.

  21. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Pretty crazy north shift on the new GFS. Snow all the way to I-64 and brings the heavy snow back into SEKY. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120718/fv3p_asnow_neus_12.png

  22. Cold-Rain says:

    Maybe we can get a wound up stronger low that crawls up the east coast and the HP gets stronger and the whole state gets over a foot of snow..Here me Santa..

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