Good evening, everyone. We’ve made it to the weekend and we continue to watch our developing winter storm taking aim at parts of Kentucky. This continues to look like it has the best chance of impacting southern and southeastern Kentucky.
The Winter Storm THREAT continues for these areas…
Freezing rain and snow has the best chance of targeting these areas compared to anywhere else. It’s the same setup as we have been talking about for a while now, where the farther north and west you live, the lower the chance of seeing much at all.
The short range Canadian continues to try and change that. It has the freezing rain and snow much farther north than anything else…
The new version of the GFS is now similar with that…
Here are the areas getting snow and freezing rain on that model run…
The afternoon run of the NAM changed course from the earlier run that had nothing hitting Kentucky. Here’s the area it shows across the southeast for snow and freezing rain…
The Hi Res NAM is similar, but shows a better breakdown between snow and freezing rain…
Snow
I will have the latest on WKYT-TV at 11 tonight and that should include a first call map. I’ll also have the latest on KWC later tonight. Enjoy and take care.
At least the Threat lives another update☺. I hope for a low end Winter Storm Warning for Harlan after the event already begins, but probably an advisory will do. I would prefer at least a Special Statement BEFORE the event but NWS isn’t biting. It will be a last minute warning or advisory for a few of us, at least I think anyways.
All the money spent on these computer models and yet none of them to me are worth a dime. These weather models can and has made forecasters look silly and foolish from Texas to the Ohio Valley with this particular storm. If the weather models aren’t reliable what’s the point?
I’m with ya on that! I get tired of it as well. But models showing this almost 2 weeks out, and misses Cky about 90 miles is pretty good work for government work.
In today’s age, everybody will do our analysis of the models and want them to be rock steady.
I agree.their has got to be a better way of forcasting what did theese guys do 30 years ago?
I’ve literally never seen where they just have no idea what it’s going to do. A foot of snow to all rain. To nothing and sunny. To snow and sleet. To the possibility of nothing at all. Then it’s coming back to the possibility of rain and snow. With the technology of today it shouldn’t be that hard
That makes two of us!
Frank Faulkner got it right or so the legend goes….many a year ago…
He got it wrong. Just a dusting, 12 hours before two feet of snow. Really.
Frank retired from WTVQ in 1986 (even though he did some radio weather after that). The infamous dusting of two feet was in the early 90s wasn’t it?
Frank retired from WTVQ in 1986. Wasn’t that dusting of two feet in the early 90s?
The dusting forecast was Brian Collins.
The southern flow so due east still does not make sense. If it does that, should mainly be mix or ice, with some snow. Nasty mix unless higher elevations.
Tenn. N.C. AND other southern states seem to be getting bigger winter events than KY the last few winters? Global warming I guess 🙂
New NAM brings double digit snows back into SEKY. Looks like the northern shift could be on?
Let’s hope!
Well NWS must be only going by GFS alone on this storm as not even a Special Weather Statement for Harlan and nearing 24 hrs to start time. We usually get at least a statement for even less than an inch events within 24 hrs…they are not budging so some model(s) are going to be wrong later this weekend. Either GFS has been a misleading Grinch or all of the others have been lying to us!!!
Yeah, I’ve been confused by their lack of any sort of statement at all, even when neighboring counties are under a winter storm watch. I guess we’ll see what they end up doing tonight.
I think the Charleston NWS goes by the GFS only. And all the local TV Met’s in my area follow in lock step.
The way this system is looking, folks probably want to be careful what they ask for.
Looking more ice if that far south. Just saying.
New Canadian model snowfall map.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018120800/gem_asnow_neus_10.png
Looks like Chris’s 1st call map
Any link to the first call map I can’t find it????
It was briefly on the 11 o’clock news
Jared what is that giving Knox county? Looks like 7-8 inches.
New GFS also bringing the heavy snow back as well, has some light snow all the way up towards Lexington:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018120800/fv3p_asnow_neus_11.png
There is still room for it to be more nw as well…we will see
I could be off but isn’t the low pressure area already 70 -80 miles north of the models? Not me being hopeful, just looking at the radar vs the models….