Saturday Midday Update

Happy Saturday, folks. I wanted to drop by for a super visual, but relatively short update in terms of my thoughts. I will offer up another update in a few hours (after the UK game ;)) and that will get much more specific.

I still cannot believe only a Winter Weather Advisory is out for the south and southeast, but this is what the NWS is giving us at the moment…

I will have a new call for ice and snowfall coming up in the next update, but here’s the one I started with last night…

Those lines may get bumped north a bit with the next update.

You can see the progress of the winter storm to our west and south…

I told you this update was going to be high on visuals and I’m a weatherdude of my word. Let’s take a look at the individual models to see how they are looking.

The NAM continues to put down quite a bit of freezing rain and snow. Check out the mega-sharp gradient on the northern edge of the precipitation shield…

NAM Freezing Rain

NAM Snowfall

The Hi Res NAM is similar…

The freezing rain map shows quite a bit more and is a bit farther north…

The snow map also hits the southeast pretty hard, but is a bit farther north…

The short range Canadian Model continues to be farther north and west with the entire storm. It also is showing the lingering snows many models had several days ago…

The snow forecast from that model is much father north…

The freezing rain output is also farther north…

The GFS has been lost in the woods for days now, but it’s the only model certain forecasters use and that’s a bloody shame. I suspect that’s why our friends at the NWS are playing catch up. Still, the GFS is FINALLY coming in line with everything else…

The snow map is still underdone and too far south…

But, it’s finally seeing the extent of the freezing rain…

The new version of the GFS isn’t finished, yet, but appears to be in line with everything else outside the GFS, which it’s set to replace soon. The euro will be off and running shortly.

I will have both those models and a new call for ice and snowfall with the next update. Have a good one and take care.


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35 Responses to Saturday Midday Update

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    Hoping it continues to inch more northwest so my county can get in on some big snow totals… hopefully! Thanks CB!!!

  2. Terry says:

    The new GFS done great with a lot of the heavier rain events earlier this year. Why want NWS consider the new version yet?

  3. TONEY says:

    i do believe you need to update your website to where it does not have capacity problems……i have had trouble all morning bringing it up……lol

  4. Cold-Rain says:

    New GFS has our SE counties in the green..Hope it gets this one right..Been steady as a rock..Might be the new KING..

  5. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Euro is much farther north

  6. Drew says:

    Anyone have a link to the new euro Chris said is way north in his tweet?

  7. Tara Chaney says:

    Anyone have any clue if it could start snowing sooner in Southern KY with models going north?

  8. Mike S says:

    Those locations to the north, watch the dewpoints. Drier air will attempt to erode precipitation chances. Models might not “see” this very well.

  9. Cold-Rain says:

    Welp..Believe it may be time to go get some gas for the Generator..Euro pretty much like the FV3 but upped the totals some..Expanded coverage to..Just wonder how much of that is zr..

    • Terry says:

      A longs way to go yet but Harlan might be ground zero for the most overall. Other than the blip yesterday, Harlan had consistent runs from multiple models from over 5 days out of double digit totals….can’t ever remember seeing that before!

  10. Mike S says:

    …and those double-digit snow totals for southeast KY, if storm system is getting stronger, warmer air could nose in producing other p-types, drastically cutting into those totals. I’ve been burned on this before….

    • Terry says:

      Plus, the ratio factor…an inch of rain is generally under 10 inches of wet snow when it is this warm….we will see. If the ground is fully covered only, I will be happy and just enjoy what I think is the beginning of an epic winter season!!!

      • Mike S says:

        I agree. Nothing more serene than an untouched, sparkling white blanket of snow on the ground. I need almost 3″ for that to happen.

      • Cold-Rain says:

        I figure about 7-1 ratios..Just a guess..850 temps’s and dew points i guess is figured in the equation..Just hope it’s all snow with no ice..Getting just half of what models is showing would be a win..

  11. Rodger Dodger says:

    What a disappointing event for most of the state. Good luck to those in SE Kentucky. Maybe next week western KY. Rodger in Dodger

  12. Jared from Letcher County says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson upgrades to a warning for the southern two tiers of counties this afternoon. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they did absolutely nothing. lol

  13. Jimbo says:

    Charleston NWS has partly cloudy for the tri-state from today thru Thursday then rain and mid 50’s for next Friday. Looks like a another Winter of disappointing backside flurrie events.

  14. Terry says:

    The northward surge is starting out in far west KY/Missouri!

  15. Kat says:

    Further north than originally thought?

  16. Cold-Rain says:

    Just wow..Getting Nam’ed..Been a long time coming for SE KY if true..

    tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018120818&fh=36

  17. Terry says:

    Morristown has expanded both winter storm warnings and advisorys deep into the valley! Poor ole SE KY has not been warned by anyone other than Chris!

    Chris, you truly have been incredibly accurate over the years and your dedication is appreciated more than you know!

  18. jackson says:

    According to the WV channels, Pike County is now under a Winter Storm Warning…I’m sure that includes all of SE KY but just showed Pike County since we are in their viewing area.

  19. Melva says:

    Anything for Huntington Ashland areas?

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