Tuesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. Your friendly weatherdude is on the road today, but is still finding the time to drop by for a quick update. It’s calm and quiet for another day or so, then a big storm system moves our way for the end of the week into the start of the weekend.

That system shows up differently on the all the models because we are dealing with a big upper level low. That system will fire up a lot of wind and rain for our region, with the chance for some wraparound flakes on Saturday. The flake thing isn’t a big possibility as of now, but it’s something to watch for.

Watch how the models differ on how they handle this upper low and surface storm system.

GFS

The GFS isn’t nearly as strong with the surface low as a few of the other models. The end result is a lot of rain and zero snows anywhere…

Contrast that with a much stronger and farther north low from the Canadian…

Notice how the heaviest rains are a bit north and west, but check out the snows…

My thoughts are probably much closer to the GFS, but the chance for a stronger system like the Canadian cannot be ruled out. As I’ve said, these strong upper lows have a mind of their own.

This continues to be a milder overall pattern into next week, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold shots and snow chances. That said, the main change back to the colder than normal pattern shows up in the days leading up to Christmas and into Christmas week. LOOK OUT BELOW…

I will try to update this evening, but no promises. 🙂

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.


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12 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Thoughts

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Safe travels on this beautiful day!

  2. Andy Rose says:

    Dottie look at this on Amazon and see if it suits your needs. AcuRite 01512

  3. Jimbo says:

    Doesn’t matter if it the cold returns or not. It will be rain then backside flurries.

  4. Teacher Nate says:

    My posts/questions keep disappearing. Did I make someone mad?

    • Troy says:

      Sometimes the blog automatically throws out an entire post if it “thinks” there is a bad word included….for instance some words include the letters a*# (as in donkey)….the blog will throw out the post everytime that sequence of letters are posted, yes even inside a larger word.

      • TennMark says:

        A more dismaying aspect of this is posting website addresses. For example, some NWS storm spotter courses have the word “c-l-a-s-s” literally within the URL. A certain three letters of an otherwise innocent word causes the whole post to be automatically rejected. One normally can put something like dashes/asterisks between each letter of a ‘bad’ word or think of an alternative word.

        But for a URL with a ‘bad’ word like c-l-a-s-s, at least one option is to include the dashes in the URL (which will bring up an invalid site). Then advise one to manually remove the dashes, then enter again.

  5. Msd says:

    Gfs has been showing the fantasy white Christmas for a couple of days now. I remember last year a hilarious 1500 mile long raging ice storm from the east coast to New Mexico seven days out. That model needs to be binned asap. The new version seems better, though.

    • Rodger Dodger says:

      Yes and some online mets are pointing to that as reason for snow lovers to rejoice during Christmas week. When will people learn forecasts over five days during the winter are fantasy land? Rodger in Dodger

      • Prelude says:

        I said this once I’ll say it a thousand times. If one believes the GFS from a week to two weeks out. Kentucky along with many other states would average over 50 inches of snow per winter season.

  6. StormTrackerWV says:

    And Prelude, you are right about the GFS–I’m finally starting to accept that…I guess before I wanted to believe in those snowfall totals on the weeks-ahead runs, but they never come true. In reality, it’s kinda ridiculous how useless it is as a forecasting tool (at least for winter precip types–it does seem to do ok with amounts sometimes).

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