Some Ugly Weather Ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. Here’s hoping this update finds each of you living and loving life to the fullest. It’s another pretty nice day across the region and you should get out and take advantage of it… We have another round of ugly on the way.

Temps today are in the mid and upper 40s for many, which is actually fairly typical for this time of year. A few readings may hit the 50 degree mark. Clouds will increase and I can’t rule out a shower at some point this evening or tonight.

Thursday begins to bring some of the ugly stuff with clouds thickening, with the chance for a shower. This action will REALLY increase Thursday night and Friday as a huge upper level low slowly rolls across the region. That spawns a strong surface low that will aid in bringing a lot of rain, wind and some thunder our way.

The Canadian had finally joined in on the real world party with this low…

This now matches up with what the GFS has been cooking for several days now…

Heavy rainfall of 1″+ is possible during this time…

The pattern after that is seasonally chilly, with temps going back into the above normal range for a few days next week. From there, we find the pattern quickly reverting back to the cold setup we’ve been in since late October. The Euro kicks it off with a couple of clippers diving in late next week…

For a better picture of how the northern hemispheric pattern is changing, check out the GFS Ensembles late next week into Christmas weekend…

You can see how we start to seeing the heights lowering across the country, with rising heights across Canada and up into Alaska. That’s still not a super cold pattern, but that changes into Christmas week. Notice the changes in North America…

Not a bad look at all for the big Christmas week!

I’ll update again later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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20 Responses to Some Ugly Weather Ahead

  1. feederband says:

    Looks like rain until January.

    • Prelude says:

      Maybe Christmas week the pattern flips to a colder more winter type look.

    • Jimbo says:

      I agree. He said it wasn’t a super cold pattern also notice on the last map. That yellow area of warm air to our southeast is too close for comfort if you are a snow lover for Christmas. Because any storm that comes along will be able to tap that warmer air and rain on us.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      I like how everyone thinks they’re psychic about weather.

      • Andy Rose says:

        That applies to everybody including weather persons

        • Virgil E says:

          At least weather people have the knowledge and tools at their disposal to make educated guesses! Everyone else just plays psychic and then throws a hissy when they don’t get what they want.

    • TennMark says:

      Even if a possible Polar Vortex event does indeed send an Arctic blast to North America (as Chris Bailey just retweeted), will it be the western US in the crosshairs or our part of the county. Suppose time will tell. Weather ain’t boring. 😉

  2. SkiWi says:

    Of course. Don’t have to worry about the RAIN missing us.

  3. BlizzardTim says:

    4.4 earthquake center right over my house in east ten.. broke dishes pictures off wall and one scared wife!!

    • LOUteach says:

      My family lives in North Georgia and felt it too. There was another earthquake in that area back in 2003. That one shook my daughter moved furniture and knocked things off the wall. I’d hate to know what one with a magnitude of 6 or higher felt like!

    • TennMark says:

      Hey Tim. Glad you and family are ok. I have a brother in north Georgia. He, wife and at least one of the kids were awakened. No damage, except maybe to some nerves…

      My wife and I slept through it. If our dog noticed, she didn’t wake us. Looking at the USGS map, relatively few around Nashville TN and Huntsville AL noticed. The shaking didn’t seem to spread much west of the Tennessee Plateau but was really concentrated in the Tennessee Valley between Chattanooga and Knoxville.

      BTW, my parents live in Cleveland TN near Chattanooga but they seemingly picked a good time to be out of town!

  4. Jim B says:

    Those models also suggest a look of a above normal temp wise after Jan 1, as I’m predicting, and hoping for…

  5. Jimbo says:

    Doesn’t take a psychic to predict rain and backside flurries for the tri-state. You just know its gonna happen.

  6. Troy says:

    Oh goodie!!!! Nothing makes for a better forecast than……….that’s right folks……yet, more rounds of heavy flooding rains.
    Kentucky truly has become the new Pacific Northwest. Isn’t it just to die for!!!

  7. BengalFan says:

    Chris can you or someone else explain how this looks good for the week of Christmas? In general I take it is that blue is cold(or below avg. temps) and yellow is warmer(above avg temps?) If so, I see a lot more yellow around the world than blue. Which would tell me that yes cold will come but then quickly move out (alot more yellow). I know its about placement, but looks like we would be surrounded by yellow,,,that would push cold away. Unless it just spun like that for awhile. Like everyone else around here, I’m completely tired of the rain. I wish it would just freeze up for 3 months and snow or even just freeze up and just be dry.
    Oh well, its going to do what its going to do!

  8. Cold-Rain says:

    I sure ain’t no expert and have trouble reading those maps also..But to me that’s look like a -EPO with cold air bleeding east with over running events..Looks like ice to me in the future..Probably wrong but jmo..Maybe someone else with better knowledge can explain..

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