Focusing On The Next Storm Potential

Good Sunday, folks. Round of heavy rain have drenched much of the region over the past few days as a slow-moving upper low moved through. That system is moving away, with nice weather to follow to begin the new week. That good stuff isn’t going to last long as another powerhouse of a storm looks to develop by Thursday and Friday.

That has a pretty interesting look to it and I will talk more about that in a bit.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Leftover showers will be slow to depart the eastern half of the state as clouds linger through the afternoon. Western parts of the state may see some clearing, boosting temps into the low 50s there. Much of the rest of the state stays in  the seasonal 40s.

Here are your radars to track any leftover shower…

Temps over the next few days will be back in the 40s with lows hitting the 20s. Those numbers are about normal for this time of year.

Another big storm system targets the region and much of the eastern half of the country later this week. There’s a lot of energy swinging through during this time and how all that energy plays together will be the determining factor on the weather across Kentucky.

Check out the look of this system upstairs….

How all that translates to the surface remains to be seen. The GFS continues to develop a very deep low pressure that would bring wind and rain to snow across our region…

The ICON Model has a similar look, but watch it jump around with where to put the surface low or lows…

The European Model has a big, disruptive storm for a lot of people…

That’s one massive storm system in terms of how large it is!

The new version of the GFS has a similar overall look, but it’s all over the place trying to develop multiple lows…

The Canadian seems to be struggling most with this system and is showing the biggest swings from one run to the next…

The type of weather we get around here really depends on how all that upper level energy comes together. If you want more of a snow and winter aspect, you don’t want that energy spread out, you want more of a consolidated look.

How that system plays out will be the determining factor on how things play out a couple of systems coming behind it for later next weekend into Christmas.

Once again, there is NO shortage of action for us to track.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Sunday and take care.


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17 Responses to Focusing On The Next Storm Potential

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    In before the “dreaded rain and backside flurry” comments. 😉

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      lol

      • Prelude says:

        Funny you should mention rain to backside flurries. That’s exactly what the NWS believes will happen on there forecast discussion this morning with Thursday system.

        • Jimbo says:

          They don’t have to go very far out on a limb to make that prediction. Since it plays out like a broke record. A model could show a storm a month from now and it would be a safe bet for NWS say rain to flurries.

    • Jim B says:

      Exactly what it is going to be… however, should we get a little accumulation, temps are gonna rebound quickly, won’t be around long. Gotta love the models, and their “ potential “ though, a week out haha. I wish it would stop raining

  2. SouthernWVaWildcat says:

    Mother Nature, enough already please.

    There will be catastrophic flooding if this forecast holds true regardless of whether the precipitation type be rain or snow.

    And at Christmas too, the absolute worst time of year for this to occur.

    Lord help us.

    2018 can’t be over soon enough.

    • Jimbo says:

      I can’t think of a more appropriate 2018 Christmas Gift. Than heavy rain and dreaded backside flurries. We shall end the year like we started it.

  3. SouthernWVaWildcat says:

    I am actually much more worried if it rains than if it snows. Sadly, that appears to be the case unfortunately once again. The ground cannot hold anymore water right now. Not even one single drop. Yes we have had that much water this year, and the ground is that soaked.

  4. Nasdaq says:

    What a great look at 500mb. where is even the marginally cold air when you need it?

  5. Nikkieky says:

    Anyone else having trouble seeing the new radar images embedded in these posts?

    • Debbie says:

      They’ve been black-screened since about Thur. evening for me. You can click on them and see them, then click back. I’ve mentioned it here a couple of times since, but to no avail. I don’t mind doing that, but would rather not have to.

  6. Farmer43 says:

    They all weather outlets have been talking about return to winter only the models have fooled them again it appears to average to above average right into the beginning of January really and truthfully we need to watch weather 48 hrs out and no further think about all the snows predicted throughout each winter by the models but never happen but every now and then they get one right just not very often most of Kentucky winter storms pop up at the last minute just think little over a week ago the whole state was supposed to get a major winter storm when the reality was just a small portion got anything I myself got nothing in nw Kentucky

  7. Bobt says:

    If you predict four or five days of rain a week in Kentucky you could have a pretty accurate forecast. More years like 2018 and I am seriously thinking about moving to a drier climate. What happened to a couple of weeks of sunny summer days around here? It’s literally rained all year here. Ughhh.

  8. Mike says:

    I guess one of the factors about winter forecasting is the temp. Precipitation and temps in a 10 degree range still means rain the spring, summer, and fall. A 4 debree swing in temps in the winter can make all the difference – lots of rain, lots of snow, “busted” forecasts, “accurate” forecasts. Seems to me our perception of “accuracy” of forecasts and models differs in the winter…

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