Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. Dreary and chilly weather continues across central and eastern Kentucky as the west gets a break. As better weather settles in for most in the coming days, another big storm system is going to develop and target the region later this week. That’s a storm that will impact millions of people across the eastern part of the country to begin the long Christmas weekend.

Let’s begin with the low clouds, fog and drizzle hanging around. This action is pretty much keeping the central and east locked in on some ugly. Temps are chilly in these areas, too. The NAM is keeping the dreary and chilly weather around over the next few days, while the GFS clears us out with seasonal temps. Come on GFS! 🙂

I have no changes on the late week storm system. This thing is going to be massive an impact about every state east of the Mississippi River. What kind of an impact it has on the weather where you live remains to be seen as we figure out how strong this gets and how much cold air it can wrap in from the northwest.

The GFS has a lot of rain and wind starting Thursday with rain changing to wraparound snows on Friday…

The ICON Model has a similar solution, but has a better period of wraparound snows than the GFS…

The new version of the GFS isn’t quite as strong and is a bit farther east, but still has some nice wraparound snows in the east…

The European Model covers a ton of real estate with this storm, but doesn’t have quite the cold air push behind the storm as the GFS models show…

The Canadian Model continues to be the jumpiest and weakest of the models and having a tough time pulling in colder air…

Some thoughts on this setup:

  • Time of impact is Thursday through early Saturday
  • Rain and wind are likely with this system, especially Thursday and early Friday
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″  with locally higher amounts show up. Local high water issues possible
  • Wraparound snows are very POSSIBLE with such a big storm system, but that’s not a given. It all depends on how much cold air can dive in behind this storm.

What happens with that storm will impact what happens behind it for Christmas weekend into Christmas week. The Canadian Model has a nice little snow maker rolling in Christmas Eve and Day…

The GFS has a weaker version of that…

The European Model has been terribly inconsistent with the Christmas Weekend/Christmas Eve and Day look. Last night’s run at cold overwhelming the Ohio Valley. The new run has a weak system zipping through on Sunday…

Once again, there’s no shortage of action in the run up to Christmas and the holiday season. Will these systems be more Grinch than Bing Crosby? Time will tell.

Make it a good one and take care.


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15 Responses to Sunday Afternoon Update

  1. BengalFan says:

    Sorry Chris, time has already told. Time says rain and maybe..maybe flurries.

    • BubbaG says:

      Not exactly the snowy December expected. Still… maybe… snowglobe snow for Christmas day….

      • Cameron Fry says:

        Huh? No one should have expected a snowy December. In Nino’s, our best chance is historically January/February. The best winter forecasts on the board had December being the mildest (compared to average) month of the three. No one should be thinking this month is a bust. Apart from the rain surplus in some areas, climatologically speaking, what we’ve seen the first two weeks of December makes sense.

  2. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou is regretfully picking grinch on this one, just hope high water issues can be averted.

  3. Jim B says:

    I’m afraid it’s Gonna be a yawner of a winter again in central ky, unless you like seasonal to above temps, and the word “potential “… yawn meter needle is all the way over right now. Our friends to the east and south may cash in a couple more times.

    • Troy says:

      If by east and south you are talking about in other states, then that’s a possibility but if you meant southern or SE Kentucky, there is little to no chance that we will “cash in” as we are doomed for rain after miserable soaking rain .

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Hope no one is too waterlogged. We’ve sure he an abundance of rain. It whatever. The possible ChristmasxweTher is a ways off so I am not gong to venture a guess either way. But just take it one day at a time. Just glad we have some dry weather for a few days. Oh yeah, it probably will wind up snowing because our daughter is having a very serious surgery on Thursday in Lexington that will keep here at UK for 3-4 days. That men’s travelling back and forth for a couple of days . So yeah, it probably will snow.

  5. Jimbo says:

    I bet it will be a Grinch Christmas. Last white Christmas in my area was 2010. Just rain, rain and more rain.

  6. Rodger Dodger says:

    GRINCH! Rodger will be shocked with any measurable snow. Yawn! What’s with showing previous runs of the GFS when the new one is out? Rodger in Dodger

  7. Winterlover says:

    Had over 2 and half inches of rain since Thursday night here in far western,ky. It seem some people on this blog has given up on winter already heck it’s not even winter officially yet till Friday and everybody that lives in kentucky outta know we don’t get snow until Janurary thru march or April. Let’s see how this play out folks before your negative thoughts sets in.

    • BengalFan says:

      True statement. But the trend Is to have rain rain rain and maybe backside flurries. And if the models are showing that five days out count on it. I’m not giving up on snow for the winter just doesn’t look good for the next couple of weeks in my opinion.
      But I’m a Bengals fan, I want to believe. But……

  8. Bobt says:

    I’m dreaming of a wet Christmas. Just like the 11 months that came before.

    We need a dry up. The Christmas models are showing more rain than snow for the bottom half of the state and that’s the last thing we need.

  9. WinterLover says:

    The comments are so negative. People act like we’re in February and haven’t had a winter and my gosh how many times do we have to hear “rain with backside flurries”??

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