Good evening, everyone. Chalk this post up to “better late than never”. I told you I would be dropping by for another update and I’m a weatherdude of my word… Most of the time. 🙂

In the overall scheme of things, nothing has changes in regards to the late week system…

  • Time of impact is Thursday through early Saturday
  • Rain and wind are likely with this system, especially Thursday and early Friday
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″  with locally higher amounts show up. Local high water issues possible
  • Wraparound snows are very POSSIBLE with such a big storm system, but that’s not a given. It all depends on how much cold air can dive in behind this storm.

If we look at the individual members of the GFS Ensembles, you can see how several of them are showing some of the backlash snow potential…

The late afternoon GFS didn’t have quite as much cold air coming in behind the storm as earlier runs…

On the flipside, the new version of the GFS had more cold air than earlier runs…

The late afternoon ICON model only goes through midday Friday, but has some backlash snows showing up…

The JMA doesn’t show precipitation, but check out the placement of that surface low and upper level low…

I’ll see you guys later tonight for a full update. Until then… peace and happiness. Take care.