Watching The End Of The Week

Good Monday, everyone. We a little more than a week away from Christmas and it’s all eyes on another potent storm system later this week. That system will kick off the looooong holiday weekend and will bring a lot of ugly weather to millions of folks across the eastern half of the country.

I will get to that storm in a bit. First, let’s talk a little about what’s going on to begin the week. Low clouds, dense fog and some drizzle may be noted early today. That may have a tough time burning off across parts of the region. This may do a number on temps compared to areas of the west seeing sun.

A similar setup will be with us on Tuesday, with Wednesday looking to be the best day of the week.

Our late week storm system is on track to impact a HUGE chunk of real estate from Thursday through Saturday. This will be a player in every state east of the Mississippi River.

My thoughts on this storm remain the same:

  • Rain and wind are likely with this system, especially Thursday and early Friday
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″  with locally higher amounts show up. Local high water issues may develop
  • Wraparound snows are very POSSIBLE with such a big storm system, but that’s not a given. It all depends on how much cold air can dive in behind this storm

Let’s get a check of the models to see where they currently stand.

GFS

That run puts down local 3″ rains across the southeast…

The Canadian Model is very wound up and is starting to see a little more cold air on the backside…

That model is also putting down some hefty rains…

The European Model is a little colder than earlier runs with the wraparound potential…

The ICON Model has a couple different lows popping and has the best wraparound snow potential…

Again, that is truly a massive storm system! But the one key ingredient missing for snow lovers is a true cold high to the northwest. Still, the shear strength of the storm may be able to pull down just enough cold air for some wraparound action.

Looking toward Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, there’s a weaker system working toward the region. The Canadian…

The European Model…

So far, this November and December aren’t too dissimilar to 2002 and 2014, with a weaker case being made for 1977. All three of those years factored into the winter forecast I put out back in early November.

Updates come your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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9 Responses to Watching The End Of The Week

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I’m just here for the complainers and armchair forecasts. 😉

  2. MarkLex says:

    Well, Lexington KLEX needs exactly 1.30 inches of rain to get to 70 inches for the year…. crazy.
    Funny, I don’t remember a winter forecast post. I must have missed it.

  3. Russell says:

    Me thinks it’s no white Christmas…..eh

  4. WKU mark says:

    So we can sum this up quickly, No snow until at least Mid Jan, done.

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