A Few Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. We continue to track a late week storm system that’s starts to impact our weather later tonight. This continues to be on pace to deliver heavy rain, gusty winds and a period of wet snow to our region. After that, a couple of lighter systems are working our way over the rest of the Christmas holiday weekend.

My thoughts from earlier remain:

  • Rounds of heavy rain impact central and eastern Kentucky Thursday into Friday. A general 1″-3″ may fall.
  • Local high water issues are very possible, especially in the southeastern parts of the state.
  • Gusty winds may reach 35mph at times.
  • Temps drop quickly as the low goes by to our northeast. That allows for a switch to a mix of rain and snow and a period of wet snow.
  • Some light accumulations are possible across central and eastern parts of the state. That’s still not a given because any snow that falls has to fight a wet ground. But, some slushy, light accumulations are POSSIBLE in some areas.

 

Let’s get a check of the latest models on how they’re handling the wraparound snow potential…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

GFS

The Sunday into Sunday night system continues to look fairly weak, but could deliver a little bit of light rain and light snow for some. The models are still trying to figure this out. Here’s the GFS…

The new version of the GFS has a little better signature with it…

The European is a little weaker…

The European Model is just a tad farther north with the Christmas Eve and Day system…

It starts things out with a bit of a wintry mess then goes over to rain. We shall see.

Another big change will follow that up with yet another potent storm later next week. That appears to be part of a pattern change to much colder as we get ready to flip to 2019. There’s a lot of winter in store for us in January and February, with the potential for things to turn awfully harsh. This was covered in the winter forecast and, so far, things are going as planned.

Enjoy your evening and take care.


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7 Responses to A Few Evening Thoughts

  1. Terry says:

    Well, Harlan Mesonet at Black Mt. should become the wettest location ever by tomorrow evening since WKU’s inception of the first mesonet, though only about 10 years ago. Still, Harlan mesonet should blow Calloway’s previous 2016 annual precip record away as more precip next week. I predict over 85 inches by 12/31….2 years worth of precip….insane

  2. Coffeelasy says:

    Thanks Chris. We put up the rain gauge mid November when it started getting cold. Don’t want it to freeze and break. But I think I may have put it up too soon. Either way looks like a Christmas is gong to be wet in one way or another. Have a good night all.

  3. Jimbo says:

    I doubt there is any snow in our foreseeable future. You know it is a bad start to Winter when there has been little if any lake effect snowfall. And the the only areas with snow cover are northern New England, northern Great Lakes and high elevations/mountains of the west. November got off to a promising start but December has been dismal. I hope things turn around by the start 2019. I am tired of back loaded Winters and constant rain.

  4. Brian says:

    I can’t be the only one who thinks the middle frame of that last map looks an awful lot like the Grinch’s face.

  5. Bobt says:

    Record numbers of rain. Climate has changed but if dont think it’d for the better.

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