Active Setup Leads Us Into Christmas

Good Thursday, folks. Rounds of heavy rain are targeting the region today and into Friday. This comes from a massive storm system impacting areas from Canada to Cuba and all points in between. We should be able to squeeze a little wet snow out of this late Friday.

Here’s a breakdown of how this may play out:

  • Rounds of heavy rain will be common through Friday and could cause a few high water issues. Rainfall amounts of 1″-3″ will be noted across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Winds will be very gusty and may reach 35mph at times.
  • Much colder air swings in on Friday, with a mix of rain and snow developing in the afternoon. A period of wet snow will be possible in the central and east Friday night and very early Saturday.
  • Some light, slushy accumulations will be possible, but a wet ground is going to have a say in that.

As we take a look at the various computer models, we begin with the heavy rain aspect. Don’t overlook the potential for local stream and street flooding issues with rainfall numbers like these…

Hi Res NAM

GFS

The snow part of this isn’t a big, big deal, but we can see the potential for a little slush. The NAM Fam continues to be the most aggressive…

Hi Res NAM

The NAM Fam is likely overdone, with the GFS probably closer to reality…

With or without any sticking snow, slick spots will develop on roads Friday night. All that water will combine with temps in the 20s to make for some icy travel for some.

The next system quickly rolls in here on Sunday into early Christmas Eve day. This may bring some light rain and light snow to much of the region. Here’s the new version of the GFS…

That matches up well with the European Model…

The system zipping in for Christmas Day is a little weaker on the European, but is still showing a little light rain and light snow for parts of Kentucky…

Updates as usual later today. Until then, let’s track some rain…

Make it a great day and take care.


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17 Responses to Active Setup Leads Us Into Christmas

  1. Terry says:

    I think Lexington tops 70 inches of rain after this event while Black Mt in Harlan becomes the wettest ever mesonet for all years of any location since inception this afternoon. Oh and Wilmington, NC plus a few other spots in Western NC continue past 100 inches…can you imagine triple digit rainfall on the year?!!

    • Mike S says:

      Some places just southwest of Asheville average over 90″ in southwestern part of Transylvania county each year. But, Mount Mitchell to the northeast of Asheville has now had over 131″ precipitation for the year, their wettest year ever during their brief climatological stay since 1980 and beats out Mount Washington, NH precipitation record of 130″ set in 1969.
      Yet, I wonder just what is the highest annual rainfall east of the Mississippi river?

  2. Prelude says:

    When cold air is chasing moisture 99% of the time cold air loses.

    • Jimbo says:

      Like the Coyote after the Roadrunner. And we all know how that ends.

      • Terry says:

        I haven’t posted in about 10 days due to the severe depression suffered from the SE KY snow bust in Harlan…lol. I honestly wasn’t buying the double digit numbers but still thought a few inches would have materialized….0 was my total. Oh well, I am still working on my 70.00 inch rainfall prediction for annual total…I might get that one right!

        • Jimbo says:

          Glad you are back. Hope you don’t get to disappointed when Friday nights snow doesn’t show. It’s not predicted to be much anyway, so I doubt few of us will miss it. The storms that really hurt are the ones that are so close yet so far away. Like the one you were referring to. Snow accumulated about 25 miles from me and I didn’t see a flake. But that has happened more times than I can count, living in the area dominated by the Appalachian Warm Wedge.

      • Prelude says:

        Meep Meep

  3. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou says DTM (don’t trust the models). It wasn’t that many days ago they were showing much cooler air filtering in for the week around Christmas. What I’ve seen with the forecast calls for some cooler weather Saturday & Sunday but a steady warm up from there…maybe around 60 or so next week after Christmas.

  4. BubbaG says:

    IIIIIIIIII’mmmmm dreaming of a miiiiiix Christmaaaas! Cold rain and some maybe snow in the aaaiiiiirrr! 🙂 😉

  5. Winterlover says:

    Chris stated yesterday that there will be major changes late December or around first of January. So enjoy this brief break from the cold or no show snow. Our temps are running normal as of now.

    • BengalFan says:

      Brief break? I would call the small amount of snow showers and a small amount of cold in the Richmond area the brief break from the rain and 50° weather.

  6. Leeannie says:

    Asking Santa for a snorkel, fins, umbrella and a dinghy….yep, ’bout covers it….sigh………..

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