Christmas Eve Update

Good afternoon and Merry Christmas Eve. Let me begin by saying I hope each of you have the merriest Christmas ever. I’m thankful for all y’all and everything you do for me and KWC. As we countdown to Christmas, we find a weak system working in for the big day. That may be able to produce some light precipitation,

The European Model was the only model to hit yesterday’s rain and snow in our region and it’s been adamant on a very weak system for Christmas Day. Some light rain or light mixed precipitation is possible for parts of the region. The Euro continues to show a touch of light sleet or light snow zipping from west to east…

Again, that’s some very light stuff and I don’t think everyone sees it.

Milder air comes in behind that for the middle of the week. Temps surge on Wednesday as southwesterly winds crank ahead of a major plains storm system. That will drag a cold front across Kentucky late Thursday and early Friday, bringing widespread showers and a rumble of thunder…

Heavy rains may cause some local high water issues… Again.

Colder air presses in behind this storm, with the southern storm track remaining active. That should send several systems working at us from the southwest. Some may produce a lot of rain, some may produce a lot of winter weather. Those will have to be handled on a case by case basis. This is a setup that won’t allow us to determine track and type until a few days before.

You will get some very wild swings on the models coming up, and that’s to be expected. As of now, the GFS and Canadian Models are similar through the first few days of the new year…

Canadian

GFS

This setup is going to be tough on the models, especially the European. All this energy ejecting from the southwest plays right into the biggest flaw of the model. It has a tough time with energy coming from the southwestern part of the US. It will likely show some big time swings.

The pattern favors very cold air overwhelming much of the country as we get into the first few weeks of the new year.

I will have my normal update late tonight, so check back then. Until that time, have a very Merry Christmas Eve and take care.


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9 Responses to Christmas Eve Update

  1. Michael Carson says:

    Merry Christmas Chris!

  2. Feederband says:

    Merry Christmas Chris and all you weather bloggers that keep this place interesting and funny at times.

  3. Cold-Rain says:

    Hard to tell about the pattern as we go forward..Shows really good blocking one day then backs off the next..Guess time will tell..Merry Christmas to all..

    • Terry says:

      I think it will be week two of January and beyond myself, for the real cold and wintry chances. NAO and AO are both neutral trying to go negative while PNA is also neutral trying to go positive. It also lags about 10 days after the favorable oscillation changes before pattern really turns and locks in. We might get some wet snow and mixes next week, but I think after the 10th will be more favorable….just my opinion!

  4. Merry Christmas and a Happy Cold Rain year. (LOL)

  5. Terry says:

    Poor old SE KY looks to receive the most rain coming up this week. Yikes!!!

  6. Rich says:

    Merry Christmas to everyone. May we have a big snow very soon!!

  7. msd says:

    Merry Christmas all!

  8. Todd says:

    Thanks Chris and merry Christmas to all bloggers that make this sight very interesting, happy new year and may 2019 bring a good snow storm or two.
    God bless.

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