High Winds For Thursday

Good afternoon, everyone. We have a big storm system on the way for Thursday and Friday and this is going to bring a lot of wind and rain to our region. A few strong storms are even possible as a cold front crosses the state.

Wind gusts of 50mph or greater are likely across much of Kentucky Thursday into Thursday night. The Hi Res NAM is showing gusts of 60mph+ for some in central Kentucky. Notice the model has three straight hours with gusts greater than 60mph in the bluegrass region…

Wind damage is very possible through Thursday night. In addition to the winds, heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ will show up in a rather short amount of time. That can cause additional high water issues for some areas.

The setup after that features a boundary hanging around our region as waves of low pressure develop in the south and roll northeast. Those waves continue to give the models fits because they are hard to time and because we have cold air coming into the country. That puts Kentucky on the infamous dividing line between rain and winter weather…

The new version of the GFS


Watch how that trough continues to deepen next week…

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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26 Responses to High Winds For Thursday

  1. Msd says:

    Thanks Chris. Does look like the Euro is struggling more than usual here. We’ll see how it all shakes out.

  2. Rodger Dodger says:

    December was a big let down for most of us snow lovers – after a lot of hype about it in late November. Mr Bailey’s getting excited again for January. The smart money takes a step back and says let’s wait and see. Rodger in Dodger

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      There was no hype. December is traditionally not snowy anyhow. I’ll stick with Chris.

      • BubbaG says:

        CB did post that December chances should be good for snow lovers and did a few time (seemed a reasonable outlook). Catch is the two big chances went north and south of us, with the southern one the BIG one. Given the amount of power outages and grief that caused- good miss IMO 🙂

        Our broken record is the outlooks look good a week or weeks out, but the main snow misses us. That said, a few years ago we had three record snows in one rolling year, so we are not immune to big snow 🙂

      • SHAAK says:

        There was definitely hype.

    • Sam says:

      Yep. There was hype. “A December to remember” not for Kentucky.

  3. Jimbo says:

    Those models still look like mostly rain. Plus the locals in the tri-state area have temps of 50 or higher for the next week. One other comment I have, I think those 2 week out snow model forecasts are terrible. They have been showing us with snow for over a month.

  4. Mike S says:

    My preferred teleconnections are not in complete agreement for a region wide significant winter event through January 6. But, things can change. Right now, it looks like most of the state will report above normal temperatures (2-4 degrees) and precipitation for this first month of winter. Unless you lived in the higher elevations of eastern Kentucky, snowfall came in at about 1.5″ or much less for most of us. Of course, we still could add to that during this last week of the year, just not optimistic.

  5. Debbie says:

    After pretty much epic fails on all models last winter when it came to snow/snowstorms/etc., I am just going to look at forecasts, hope for the best (for me & other winter wx lovers), and what will be, will be, this go ’round! I’ll only get excited when I look out my window/door and see what actually comes to fruition.

    • BubbaG says:

      That’s why best not to fall for them 😉 24 hours out seems the least for let down, but still a risk. CB though has no such luxury for waiting.

  6. Mike S says:

    Temperatures: Within a degree of normal

    Snowfall: 3″ to 6″
    (Bailey’s forecast above)
    A little bit off for most of us but spot on for higher elevations of eastern Kentucky in general

  7. Terry says:

    WPC now showing 3 inches plus for far SE KY for 7 day rainfall forecast….high flood threat looks more and more likely as we get closer. We need less rain and more real winter! I hope more snow and less rain after next week.

    • Jimbo says:

      I hope you don’t get that heavy rain. Locals in my area are calling for less than half an inch of rain. Which is good news if that pans out. Still not a hint of cold or snow in the next week or so for me.

      • Terry says:

        Very meh on the temps next week. We COULD get wet snow but around 40 or warmer just isn’t favorable, especially if the sub jet overrides eastern KY and your area as shown. I think we will get more favorable beyond next week…so we wait:(

        • Jimbo says:

          I don’t like back loaded Winters, especially March and April cold/snow. Because for me it is usually just an extension of the Winter as a whole 34 degree rain and that’s a real downer in April like last year.

          • Terry says:

            Me either. I am fine with heavy snow events in January through February. By March, there is no consistent cold to keep the ground cold enough to sustain snow long enough to enjoy. Plus, high sun angle ruins a big snow very quickly in spring. In addition, I get antsy to garden, especially by April and don’t want extended cold.

            Not going to lie though, I would still accept a good snow in Spring but not a preference! I still enjoyed the March Blizzard of 1993:) I was only 10 and had a blast…not seen SE KY be hit like that event since!

  8. Cold-Rain says:

    Wind gusts that high would cause power outages in an already saturated ground..Need some extra firewood anyways..lol..Nino’s are known for back loaded winters so i guess we will see..Hope everyone had a good Christmas..

  9. Prelude says:

    Boy it’s a tough one the snow lovers can’t get no snow and I can’t get no 80 degrees with a gentle SW wind and low humidity.

    • Terry says:

      And….no dry weather with 80.

      I am sure we would have severe storms and major flooding in this current pattern if 80 degrees was in play.

      We can’t win…lol

      • Prelude says:

        I think what’s frustrating for snow lovers is early in December forecasters were saying the pattern was going to change to a winter look around Christmas week. Just seems like the pattern for that winter look just keeps getting pushed further and further back. I understand the frustration for the snow lovers. The problem with long range forecasting is the accuracy being inaccurate.

        • msd says:

          The SSW stuff is wreaking havoc on the models methinks. MJO is also unfavorable, but is projected to get better in the new year. But yeah, it’s not been great for these models.

  10. Winterlover says:

    Patience is the theme if you want snow. Lets see what January and February brings. Rarely we get snow in December anyways.

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