One More Big Storm To End 2018

Good Saturday, everyone. Our New Year’s Weekend is off and running with colder and drier air pressing into the region. This air is between monster storm systems, with the next one due up on the final day of the year. This is going to bring more heavy rain and high winds our way.

This is another in a long line of big time storms to impact our region this year, so it’s appropriate for Mother Nature to throw one more at us as we close it out. It’s almost as if she’s just trolling us now. 🙂

Here’s a breakdown of how this may play out:

  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ may show up in many areas, especially western and central parts of the state. That would be enough to cause local high water issues, at least.
  • Winds are going to be a major player once again. Those gusts may reach 50mph-60mph at times. Given the wet ground,  uprooted trees may become an issue.
  • We will need to be on guar for a few strong to severe storms by Monday afternoon. Dewpoints surge into the 60s with increased instability just ahead of the low and front. That could help spawn some pretty big thunderstorms.

Let’s start with the heavy rain part of the storm. A general 1″-3″ show up, especially central and western parts of the state…

Flash flooding and general flooding issues may develop and that includes along some of the rivers.

High winds are also a major player and may cause damage across the bluegrass state. Gusts of 50mph -60mph will be possible in many areas. The European has gusts between 60 and 70mph…

Those gusts would easily cause damage across our region.

I can’t even rule out a few strong or severe thunderstorms going up during the afternoon and early evening.

Colder air crashes in for New Year’s Day, but the active pattern isn’t going anywhere. As expected, that next storm system continues to correct west on the models and is likely to impact our weather by Thursday and Friday. In what form depends on the track of the low and the upper low spinning in behind it.

The Canadian Model keeps creeping west and is getting stronger…

The GFS is the GFS and has this storm way far to the south and east with zero impact in Kentucky. The new version of the GFS does get the southern and eastern parts of the state…

The ICON and European Models are much stronger and much farther west, bringing heavy rain and snow to the state.

ICON

The European is the farthest west of the bunch…

I’ll have my usual updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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24 Responses to One More Big Storm To End 2018

  1. B H says:

    All the Meteorologists have to say this year is? It’s going to rain and they would have a perfect record in their forecasting.

  2. Farmer 43 says:

    It’s been a long time since I’ve seen the models put out this much garbage day after day it started out a December to remember then next lots of snow chances for Christmas and then between Christmas and New Years the cold air is coming and snow as well now it looks as more of the same average to above average temps and rain rain and more rain I’m still suspicious we have seen the worst of winter back through October and November as far as a blocking pattern goes and consistently cold I hope I’m wrong but I think my chances are as good as the models

  3. Terry says:

    Yep.
    West trend will flood SE KY….we can’t get two more big rains next week and not flood down here…I think we flood!

  4. Russell says:

    RIP snow chances….like in football there’s always next year .

    • BubbaG says:

      Literally, since a few days away 😉 The models are worthless for snow for this area, so a surprise approach is the least likely for let down. The trend so far has not favorable for snow, but always a Dumb and Dumber chance. If only a little snow this winter, would prefer the rain to back off for a few weeks.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      Winter has barely started and you’re giving up. Oh well. Par for the course on this blog.

  5. Jimbo says:

    Local Mets where I am, say a 70 degree high on Monday is possible. It is befitting the year would end on a warm/wet note. I don’t know if anyone else noticed. But I took down decorations yesterday and the humidity for this time of year was terrible. Everybody hang in there snow/cold coming in one week.

    • Terry says:

      Thanks for false hope!…lol

      Even if we get a little wet snow next week, without blocking, it looks warm right after this brief cool down. Even with the back-loaded 2014-2015 season, January was still colder than average that year. I am not happy with how this season is working out one bit!

      I have an unprotected needle palm tree in my yard and it is doing great going into January!

  6. Prelude says:

    There is just nothing showing up on the GFS models when it comes to snow not even the typical phantom snowstorms.

  7. Bobt says:

    When will it end? Hate to see 2019 starting out with the same wet theme as 2018. I know it’s just a calendar, but weather wise 2018 was just a wet miserable mess. Would be nice to just have a week or so of dry weather.

    • Terry says:

      My new bold prediction is that 2019 will be another wetter than average year!

      I have seen many talk about how El Nino years usually lead to droughts after winter is over but our current El Nino is not that strong and the warmest ocean water is more western Pacific. I think we have another above average year for rain, though maybe not as wet as 2018!

  8. Troy says:

    I’m guessing the only correlation to this winter and 77’/78′ will be the “wet” factor

    • Terry says:

      For a change in weather talk: It is sunny in Harlan Troy! Mild too as our low was only 40…I think the forecasted high in the 40s will be way off today. Even with NW winds, I bet Harlan, Middlesboro and other far SE cities in KY top 50.

      Oh, dud I mention it is sunny…lol

    • BubbaG says:

      I still am confused when CB mentioned correlation with 77/78, since we had snow already then and a bunch in January. It snowed so much as was cold that when it thawed in spring, there was a bad flood afterwards.

      Didn’t CB say the same correlation last winter?

  9. Cold-Rain says:

    If you follow the MJO seem’s like it is throwing havoc on the pattern right now..Really need this to start moving in better phases and get the stupid ssw event/split daughter vortices or whatever they call it out of the way and see if it has any impact.

  10. Bjenks says:

    This winter season has just got started and people are already writing it off. Things are going to flip in a big way. Storms will continue to roll through with more snow than rain IMO. Analogs and indices are all pointing to a brutal stretch of winter weather, lets just see how it all plays out. Winter is young let’s give it a chance.

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      Exactly!! Unless every model run shows a foot of snow then everyone gets upset and says winter is over and we aren’t even in great climo yet for winter. Best winter is usually Jan 15th-Feb 15th and we are still in December. MJO looks to be in great position second half of January through February and that’s when things hopefully get rocking. But thanks to all of our arm chair meteorologists on here winter is over because we have no clown snow maps to look at lol.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      Don’t tell that to the complainers and armchair mets on here.

  11. Russell says:

    It’s not a good snow unless the 4 X 4 is needed and all WKY has gotten are coatings…..and the predictions for possible snow have turned out to be rain makers. I’m still saying no real snows here….the patterns are all going the same way.

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