Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a much colder day in the bluegrass state, but it’s all eyes on another potent storm system on the way to close out 2018. I have no changes with this storm or the one that tries to follow it up during the first few days of the new year.

Some highlights of the New Year’s Eve storm:

  • Rain moves in Sunday night and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
  • Warmer air moves in for Sunday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
  • A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
  • Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
  • High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph.
  • Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.

Here’s how this storm looks…

Colder air crashes in behind this with system for New Year’s Day. As northwesterly winds kick in, I can’t rule out some flurries or snow showers late in the day into Wednesday.

The next system to potentially impact our weather would arrive Thursday into Friday. The GFS and new GFS are both well south and develop no storm…

The European Model has another major storm impacting the state with heavy rain, heavy snow and gusty winds…

That run of the Euro trended colder than the overnight run. One of the biases of the model is to be too far west with such systems because it holds on to the southwestern energy too long.

The Canadian continues to throw some snow into Kentucky…

The Icon Model continues to be farther north with rain and snow…

As you can see, it’s the entire modelling world verses the GFS and that’s usually a bad sign for the American model. As always, we shall see.

I will update things this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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15 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB!

    On a more immediate front, the Cards and Cats game should be good. 🙂

  2. Terry says:

    Warm fronts can sometimes over achieve in rainfall and we will have to watch tomorrow late for that possibility. Then, we have the low itself moving east. I know the data shows the heaviest rainfall away from SE KY but it will take less down here for high water compared to the rest of the state thanks to all of the recent events. I still need 1.43 in to reach 70 inches on the year. It is coming down to the wire and I may miss the mark, or I may reach it.

    Mike S, you should have no problem for Louisville beating the record, especially since some t-storms could get involved.

  3. Jimbo says:

    Most likely the Thursday system will miss us or it will be rain/backside flurries. Hopefully the New Years Eve storm turns out like yesterday’s did. I had some rain (not heavy) and some brief high winds. Neither the rain nor the wind lasted long.

  4. Troy says:

    Now, I’m no fan of the GFS but round 1 went its way. The early December “smackdown” (that didn’t happen) was forecast huge by every model….except the original GFS. Seems to me, it was much closer to being correct than all the others. Just saying…

  5. Prelude says:

    Any sun breaks on Monday will really drive the winds to the surface 60+ wind gusts a good bet

  6. Cold-Rain says:

    Models today for long range guidance pretty much went to the crapper..No way to sugar coat it’s getting bad if you looking for snow in the long range..I guess things can turn on a dime but Jan. Is looking awful at the moment..

    • BubbaG says:

      As long as less rain, OK by me 🙂

    • Terry says:

      There is no blocking. That is the problem which is also keeping the subjet right on top of us. I think Jan will end up way above average on rainfall but not snow, unless we end up with a quick melting wet snow event!

  7. Drew says:

    Unfortunately, it’s looking like we are going to be blowtorched for at least half of January. Probably won’t be a dry torch.

  8. Jimbo says:

    I just hope Winter doesn’t wait till March to start. But I also hope it doesn’t warm up too fast and start the growing season early.

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