High Water and Severe Storms Threat

Good Monday and Happy New Year’s Eve. We have a very busy weather day taking shape across Kentucky as a big storm system rolls through. This is bringing the possibility of severe storms, high winds and high water to much of the region. Honestly, 2018 can’t end soon enough.

Our day starts with heavy rain and some thunder lifting to the north along a warm front. This action may put down a quick 1″-2″ of rain, leading to local high water issues for some. As that lifts to the north, warmer air shoots into the state. This air is also very humid and a bit unstable for this time of year and that could spell strong or severe storms later today.

Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible during this time.

That line of storms will also bring another round of heavy rain with it. Here’s a look at the areas that have the best chance at seeing some high water issues today…

High winds may gust to 50mph or a little better at times today into this evening. With a wet ground keeping the root system very soft, it won’t take much to cause some trees to be uprooted.

The next system rolling in later in the week continues to look like another high impact system for Kentucky. Rain and snow are both possible from Wednesday night through Friday…



New version of the GFS

Heavy rain and snow are both possible from that storm system, with details still to be determined.

As this hyper-active pattern continues, another storm shows up a few days later…

Let’s get back to tracking today’s big storm system. I will have updates as needed throughout the day. I leave you with your tracking tools for the day…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great final day of the year and take care.

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29 Responses to High Water and Severe Storms Threat

  1. Terry says:

    Thunder, lightning and heavy rain is coming down at my house early this morning in Harlan. This warm front is putting it down in SE KY too…not good. That mid-week storm will flood SE KY unless models change at last minute!

  2. Winterlover says:

    With not much cold air in place I just dont see much snow chances later this week.

    • Andy Rose says:

      Like what’s been said for years follow the trend.

      • Winterlover says:

        What Trend ? we have had snow the past years in my part of my world here western,ky. It’s just matter of time mother nature will delivered it.

        • BubbaG says:

          Overall trend though is rain and the most important one is the most recent. December missed KY with snow to the north and especially to the south of us. THAT is the trend that seems most pertinent, since could be an indicator for this winter. I’m placing odds that we are Fencetucky this winter based on this, since the models to this point have been absolute JUNK for snow.

          That does not mean it will not happen (duh), but just that so far, the trend is not being kind to suggest much snow. I’m fine with that, since less salt and other issues dealing with a lot of snow. Guessing though most here would not be.

  3. Mike S says:

    Louisville closing in on wettest year mark. Less than 0.20″ to go with a slug of lt to mod rain to push through over next couple of hours.

    • feederband says:

      I think we’ll get it. What’s yet to come in this morning and when the front moves through this evening should do it.

    • Terry says:

      I noticed the heaviest rain with the warm front was split both to your SW and SE! But, I am about 100 % confident that Louisville sets the record by this afternoon, if not this morning.

      SE KY received heavier rain from the warm front than most models predicted. I received a quick .80 down here early this morning with many areas over an inch just to my NW.

      I only need .63 by tonight to reach 70.00 in plus….I think I will as the front itself is hefty!

  4. Rodger Dodger says:

    Three systems: Rain, rain and more rain. Measurable snow won’t happen. Rodger in Dodger

  5. Jim B says:


    This was a model from last week, is this still in the fold? Or are these models even close a week out?

    • BubbaG says:

      Given no further follow-up by CB and the current outlook, seems a big negatory.

      • Farmer 43 says:

        The models are garbage and I hate to say this but most meteorologists fall for them it’s been returning to winter for 3 weeks now with no winter in sight late week system rain for sure no cold available and none in sight if you’ve noticed cb hasn’t said anything about returning to winter temps because he himself has been tricked to many times

  6. Jim B says:

    Agree, looks like normal to above temps to me. No more models for me, until the day before haha. Yawn meter at 10

  7. Mike S says:

    Louisville has officially set the wettest year mark for the 2nd time this decade

  8. Lotsasnow says:

    Local mets here in central ohio said last night January will be record warmth even a couple 75 + degree days and February just as warm said almost a zero chance of any accumulating snow thru march

  9. Mike S says:

    …And on the lighter side of the news, Lewis is out at Cincinnati.

    • Terry says:

      Well good! I remember someone on here saying we had a better chance of Lewis being fired than a big snow this winter….well, now we may end up with both….PATIENCE IS NOT MY STRONG SUIT BUT I STILL THINK WE CAN MUSTER SOME WINTER BEFORE MARCH…LOL!

      • BengalFan says:

        Bengals ownership still terrible..this should have happened along time ago..,after 47 years of being a fan, I will definitely stop being one if they hire Hue Jackson!!!

        But this did happen before a big snow,,,,I’m afraid no big snow is in store for us this winter.

        Chris, my fellow bengals fan, do you think it will get cold around here soon, or we keep in same pattern

    • BubbaG says:

      That should have happened YEARS ago. How he kept his job seems to defy any professional logic.

  10. Bob says:

    Why does Chris continue to show snow with each each and models when no one else is does this?

  11. Winterlover says:

    Chris foresee something of what other mets don’t see. Chris is pretty much accurate when he sees something different.

    • Prelude says:

      Other mets see what CB is seeing CB is not a magical meteorologist they all look at the same maps and models. CB likes to go out on a limb where other mets take the more conservative approach. CB is a great met, CB likes to look at potential and what might happen sometimes it pans out and other times it doesn’t.

      • JimB says:

        That was a paragraph of contradiction prelude. That being said a warm winter is fine with me, no matter who predicts it, or goes out on a limb

  12. Andy Rose says:

    Already higher wind speeds than The last wind storm

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