Another Soaker Ahead

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another mainly dreary day across the bluegrass state, with another rain maker on the way for Friday. That will bring the chance for additional high water issues in a few spots. As we look ahead into next week, some changes are showing up as we shutdown the southern storm supply, allowing cold fronts to actually enter the picture.

Temps today are in the 40s with a few breaks in the clouds trying to show up in the north. An area of rain is showing up in the south and southeast early on, but that moves away fairly quickly…

The next system is a slow-moving low pressure working in here from the southwest. That system brings more rain, locally heavy, to much of the bluegrass state…

That could be enough to cause a few more local high water issues.

That quickly pulls away early Saturday, leaving us with a very nice weekend. Temps head back into the 50s with some honest to goodness sunshine taking over! Woot!

I’ve mentioned the changes showing up for next week as we shut down the parade of southern storms. This allows the northern stream to take control, sending cold fronts our way. The first arrives on Monday with gusty showers and a sharp temp drop for Tuesday…

A few flurries may even show up behind that front.

The cold with that will not hold as we get one more really good surge of mild temps into the second half of next week. But, the groundwork is being laid for bigger system to slide in next weekend that will unleash even colder air and a different pattern.

The Euro shows this well…

The Canadian has it, too…

This arrives right on cue with what many of the analog years have been suggesting and matches up with a change in the MJO… Not to mention the splitting of the Polar Vortex. Cold and snow lovers should approve of how the second half of winter is shaping up. Me? I’m more of a first half of winter guy, but as we discussed a few days ago, Old Man Winter just doesn’t roll that way anymore.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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38 Responses to Another Soaker Ahead

  1. Terry says:

    Lol…I am more of a rare “whole” winter type of guy myself. You know, really, about the only winter in my lifetime that was truly bad from start to finish in my opinion was 1995-1996. 2009-2010 was somewhat similar to 1995-1996, but thst season was less continuing snowfalls and not too cold of a winter overall. Even 1995-1996 had some warm spells, but that beast of a winter was honestly more cold, snowy than warm with any warm spells very brief, unless these whimpy and warm 2000s winters!

    I was barely alive and don’t remember much about any of the 1980s winters but know some of the bad winters, including the extreme cold damage in Florida to the citrus and the shuttle disaster, by research only. All of the older generation complains about how whimpy our winters are now as the 1970s and before were more consistently harsh and snowy. Many of the older generation said even 2014-2015 was a mild winter compared to some in the 1970s, 60s and before that time. I always heard that the Cumberland used to regularly freeze solid, but now, it is rare to even find a hint of ice on the river down here during a long cold spell!

    When you love winter and all four seasons, one will take a backloaded winter over a no-loaded winter, I suppose:)

    • Jimbo says:

      At this point, I would even welcome a backside flurries or a day with a high temp below 40.

    • Andy Rose says:

      Terry if you want a good read look up Crankyweatherguy on twitter. He posts some great info.

    • Jamie says:

      I was a little kid in Central KY for the epic winters of the 70s (which was really only 2-3 years of winters anyway, not the whole decade.) What made those winters unusual wasn’t the amount of snow, but the fact that once the cold came, it stayed…and stayed… We were below freezing for more than a month solid. Heating systems failed all over, and roads that had been plowed kept getting covered and re-covered. People bought chains for their tires that they probably haven’t used more than twice since.

      Beyond those winters, I remember the cold of January, 1985, the cold of December, 1989, and the cold of January, 1994 as being “epic”, but I don’t remember much else about those winters because other than those cold spells perhaps those winters were unremarkable. Those late 70s winters really overstayed their welcome.

      • Prelude says:

        Winter Storm of 1994 Louisville got crushed. The snow rates were 1-2 inches per hour thunder snow was involved. I say around 7pm-11:30 pm moderate freezing was falling shortly after 11:30 pm freezing rain transition to heavy snow. From about midnight to 7am heavy snow fell for that entire duration. Leaving Louisville with 14-16 inches of snow. The following night air temperature in Louisville was -22 below. All interstates into Louisville were shut down for days. By 3am during the height of the storm the city of Louisville and state highway department lost all control of keeping the roads plowed. The plows were breaking down others simply got overwhelmed by the amount of snow and got stuck.

      • Jimbo says:

        I have read from several sources on the internet, people predicting this Winter to resemble 77 and 78. So far1 it doesn’t even measure up to the weak Winters of 16-17 or 11-12. It will have to make up a lot of ground in a short time. This year has been so bleak , it’s amazing just to see a frost. You wouldn’t know it was Winter unless you looked at a calendar.

    • SpaceGhost says:

      I remember someone doing donuts under the Ashland bridge in a VW beetle when the Ohio froze in the 70s. Natural selection in action…

      • Bjenks says:

        77/78 – 78/79 epic winters. I was only 10 at the time. Remember walking on the Ohio river and out of school for an entire month.

  2. Bobt says:

    I agree with CB, these back half Winters are not very fun. Historically you would get some nice days starting the middle of February but here lately it’s almost month late. Hoping for cold with snow or average and dry. Just give me something besides this rain.

  3. Matt says:

    Heck we had winter storm threat in April last year.. Feb-March almost always brings our most significant winter weather around here.. or so it seems. I’d say this one will be no different. Decembers are just mild with heavy rain every other day.

  4. Jim B says:

    The ol week our models… I still have to say rain for next weekend, few flurries may be…too warm

  5. Cameron Fry says:

    Doesn’t appear CB follows on Anthony Masiello on Twitter. As long as the tropical convection is stuck in the W Pac, our pattern will remain warm for the foreseeable future. We’re only weeks away from having to punt yet another winter IMO. Yes, the SOI is tanking, but poorly placed tropical convection, as we’re learning this year, is enough to sink us.

    • Cameron Fry says:

      *Doesn’t appear CB follows Anthony Masiello on Twitter. As long as the tropical convection is stuck in the W Pac, our pattern will remain warm for the foreseeable future. We’re only weeks away from having to punt yet another winter IMO. Yes, the SOI is tanking, but poorly placed tropical convection, as we’re learning this year, is enough to sink us.

      • Prelude says:

        Or maybe Anthony Masiello isn’t following Judah Cohen on Twitter.

        • BengalFan says:

          SO FAR nobody should follow anybody…unless you want to keep looking a week away. Because it seems that everyone keeps pushing cold winter back and back. Surely goodness it will get cold sometime this month?

          • Cameron Fry says:

            To you and Prelude…fair enough. Each winter has its own narrative. This year the SSWE won’t make much diffirence due to the wPac state. That has to change if we want to see favorable MJO effects. Not saying we don’t see a little cold, but I’m becoming increasingly skeptical of a backloaded winter. Usually whatever players are stubborn, stay stubborn until it’s too late climatoligcally.

      • Troy says:

        As long as he isn’t following Joe Bastardi and or following his seemingly always wrong thoughts and theories, all is good…

      • Cold-Rain says:

        Anthony Masiello or HM as he is also called is probably one of the smartest mets in the world..

  6. Rodger Dodger says:

    FORE-casting or What-I-Predicted is Coming-casting?? Guess we’ll find out. Rodger in Dodger

  7. Mike S says:

    Here’s a couple of fun stats….
    For Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, and Jackson, it has now been 22 consecutive days since the average temperature (the daily high and low temperatures divided by 2) has been below normal.

    What a difference a year makes….
    In Louisville, we endured a period of sub-freezing temperatures from December 25 2017 through January 6 2018, including 7 consecutive days of single-digit temperatures. Fast forward about one year later, Louisville is in the middle of not recording a temperature below freezing since December 26 2018…with no sub-freezing temperatures expected according to current forecast.

  8. Prelude says:

    Here’s something that’s pretty much a given most of the time in the Ohio Valley it will be hazy hot and humid from June-August.

  9. Jeff Hamlin says:

    No shortage of hot takes in the comments today.

    • Andy Rose says:

      That’s what the blog is for Jeff

      • BubbaG says:

        This. After the three record big snows in less than 12 months a few years ago, you never know. Does not seem likely this winter, but I thought we would get a bunch of snow last winter and did not. Perhaps opposite this time then 🙂

  10. feederband says:

    OK city gets 3-4 inches. Heavy snow in Shamrock TX. Nothing in KY.

  11. MB says:

    At least we do not have the milk and bread hysteria… That’s a plus, isn’t it?

  12. Virgil E says:

    What we have here is plenty of people with plenty of opinions but not enough of knowing that no matter the opinions, what will be will be and what will not, will not.

  13. Drew says:

    It’s important to note that December 1977 saw average temps around 34 in Louisville(high and low), while last month we saw temps average around 43. January of 1978 temps averaged around 23. We would have a long way to go to achieve a winter like that this year.

    • BubbaG says:

      Hence my point a while back not getting the comparison to 78…. Still do not get it, but I can talk smack, since not a met 🙂

  14. Shawon says:

    I’m too young to remember the winters of the late 70’s, heh.

    For me the all time “winner” is still 1994. Not only did we have the epic snow and all-time record cold, but 2 ice storms in Lexington/Central Kentucky. This was the first time I realized ice could take out electrical power.

    The 2-3 weeks of epic snow/cold in 2015 was as bad of a stretch of winter I have ever lived through, but it was only 2-3 weeks, fortunately.

  15. Dr Wx says:

    Winters of 77 and 78 were of course the most memorable. I was around 15 at the time. However even before those years I dont recall any of the winters really “standing out” as really rememberable for such excessive snow and cold. Perhaps it was a truley a once in a lifetime event. The perfect mix of conditions at the perfect time. Onlytime will tell.

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