Starting The Change Back To Winter

Good Sunday, folks. It’s another absolutely gorgeous weather day across the bluegrass state of Kentucky. Plenty of partly sunny skies and temps deep into the 50s will combine to make this another winner! As we look into the week ahead, the colder signal continues to show up as we march toward a rocking and rolling second half to winter.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. It’s gorgeous.  Ok, let’s roll forward. 🙂

Highs on Monday will be well into the 50s again as clouds increase and winds gust up. Late day showers increase as a cold front drops in from the northwest. There’s a second front behind that, with the cold air really surging in behind this for Wednesday and Thursday. Wind chills really drop…

That strong northwesterly wind will produce some cold wind chills and give us a few days with below freezing highs. It may also spawn a few flurries or snow showers across the eastern half of Kentucky.

The late week/next weekend system continues to show up, but is showing up different on each model run.

The new version of the GFS has winter weather maker, but isn’t ready to make it into a bigger system…

As expected, the GFS is the most progressive, which is a known bias of the models…

The Canadian is most wrapped up, but not as much as earlier runs…

The European Model continues to be the slowest, likely playing into the model’s own bias of holding systems back in the southwest too long…

Given the trends and the overall setup, it’s hard to argue we won’t see the models correct west with that storm in the coming days. Regardless, unlike its predecessors, it actually has cold air already in place ahead of it. We shall see.

Something that’s about to get a lot of attention in the weather world is the pattern setting up into the middle and end of the month. This is a heck of a setup for some serious winter weather potential across the eastern half of the country…

I’ve put the various blocking signatures showing up on the ensembles as we head into the second half of the month. If you’re a regular reader of the blog from years past, you know those are the big 4 for me.

I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.

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36 Responses to Starting The Change Back To Winter

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I bet we get surprised at some point.

  2. BH says:

    I hope all the cold stays in Canada.

  3. Schroeder says:

    I must break my silence on Chris’s weather blog to make this simple way to predict what the rest of the winter may turn out. Back in the frigid and snowy winters of the late 1970’s, Alaska and all points south had record high temperatures and well below normal snow events. In fact in those years the dog sled races were cancelled in Alaska due to no snow cover. The above scenario has to occur before we can have winter events in the Ohio Valley. This still may happen as shown on Chris’s last weather model. The only fly in the ointment is the 540 is way north of the Ohio Valley. In the following weeks look for a possible warm up along the west coast up to Alaska. Then, maybe we will have winter events. Could be more cold rain or Ice events but hopefully some heavy snowstorms state wide. One thing for sure it will not be like the severe winters of the past. Hang in there winter lovers !

  4. Jim B says:

    Back side flakes in our future

  5. Matt says:

    Other than the shower chance tomorrow night, Jackson is showing no precip for my area the next 7 days! Might actually be able to walk outside without putting rubber boots on!

  6. Mike S says:

    CB, you may want to look at the location of where you have the -EPO on your map. You do know that the EPO and NAO are similar in that to have a negative value, it requires ‘ridging’. Your display of the EPO is in the midst of a ‘trough’. I would have placed it a little closer to the west coast where the ridging is located not far from the PNA actually.

    • Schroeder says:

      I always thought that the Arctic Oscillation had to under go a weakening process which would slow down the westerlies in Canada and allow a ridge to form along the west coast to Alaska. With that said, Arctic air would plunge south into the central and eastern US. With a negative polar jet and a positive weaker subtropical jet would combine to form a series of winter storms in the Ohio Valley.

    • Jeff Hamlin says:

      Hey, we have an expert here!

      • feederband says:

        So what’s your take on the weather Jeffy?

      • Barry says:

        Jeff, just a little observation but I just looked back thru all the comments for this latest update from our beloved weather man and all I see from you are insults and snide remarks.
        Now maybe from time to time you offer up some insightful thoughts and opinion, but as far as your condescending remarks, I for one am getting tired of reading them.
        Now…you’ll probably come back with some witty
        jibber like “well if you don’t like it then don’t read it” and all that’s going to do is solidify my comments above.
        I hope EVERYONE has a nice evening.

  7. Terry says:

    Honestly, I am not interested in next weekend’s model circus for one storm chance. I am happy about the overall change in pattern moving forward. Like I said yesterday, we can’t even see backside flurries in our current pattern but at least we have snow possibilities moving beyond next week! Whether KY and border states cash in or not remains to be seen, but I would prefer at least colder temps in winter for opportunities of snow which is what is on the way:)

    • feederband says:

      My yard is one big mud hole. It was a lush green lawn before fall. Had to wash my big dog down earlier. Need a few weeks of dry weather.

  8. Ruth says:

    Chris, can you take out the trash please? Thanks!

    Also, I’m hoping we finally see snow this coming weekend! Getting tired of looking at mud. Sad to say, at this point, I’d even be happy with a couple inches.

  9. Cold-Rain says:

    Figured it was time for the GFS to start showing fantasy snow..Looks like a phase..Only a week away so you never know..Actually the icon backs it

  10. Jim B says:

    Have not read where one person has said they think CB forecasts off one model….are you by chance Donald J, using Jeff Hamlin’s name as cover haha

  11. Russell says:

    I’ll believe there’s snow when I see it…

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