Good Sunday, folks. It’s another absolutely gorgeous weather day across the bluegrass state of Kentucky. Plenty of partly sunny skies and temps deep into the 50s will combine to make this another winner! As we look into the week ahead, the colder signal continues to show up as we march toward a rocking and rolling second half to winter.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. It’s gorgeous.  Ok, let’s roll forward. 🙂

Highs on Monday will be well into the 50s again as clouds increase and winds gust up. Late day showers increase as a cold front drops in from the northwest. There’s a second front behind that, with the cold air really surging in behind this for Wednesday and Thursday. Wind chills really drop…

That strong northwesterly wind will produce some cold wind chills and give us a few days with below freezing highs. It may also spawn a few flurries or snow showers across the eastern half of Kentucky.

The late week/next weekend system continues to show up, but is showing up different on each model run.

The new version of the GFS has winter weather maker, but isn’t ready to make it into a bigger system…

As expected, the GFS is the most progressive, which is a known bias of the models…

The Canadian is most wrapped up, but not as much as earlier runs…

The European Model continues to be the slowest, likely playing into the model’s own bias of holding systems back in the southwest too long…

Given the trends and the overall setup, it’s hard to argue we won’t see the models correct west with that storm in the coming days. Regardless, unlike its predecessors, it actually has cold air already in place ahead of it. We shall see.

Something that’s about to get a lot of attention in the weather world is the pattern setting up into the middle and end of the month. This is a heck of a setup for some serious winter weather potential across the eastern half of the country…

I’ve put the various blocking signatures showing up on the ensembles as we head into the second half of the month. If you’re a regular reader of the blog from years past, you know those are the big 4 for me.

I will have updates later today. Have a good one and take care.