Updating The Return Of Winter

Good evening, folks. As I mentioned yesterday. this weather has “springtime CB” ready to hit the fast forward button, but Old Man Winter has other ideas. Winter is fighting back this week and has an increasing snow potential by he end of the week into next weekend.

A cold front moves toward the region late Monday, bringing gusty showers into town. The cold air is lagging behind the second system arriving late Tuesday into Tuesday night. That sets the stage for a very cold middle and end of the week. Below freezing highs show up Wednesday and Thursday, with gusty winds making it feel much, much colder. A few flurries and snow showers fly across the eastern half of the state on this northwest flow.

This brings us to the late week and weekend winter weather potential. Once again, I’ve been saying to watch for the models to see much more of a system than what they had been showing the past few days. Right on cue, they are doing just that.

The GFS is a “go big or go home” model. The last run was in the “go home” camp and didn’t really show much with this storm. The latest run is in the “go big” camp…

The new version of the GFS has had much more of a system than the GFS it’s about to replace. The current run is also “go big”…

The European Model is finally starting to understand the energy isn’t going to hang back in the southwest, so it’s kicking more and more of it out sooner. That means it’s seeing more and more of a winter weather threat for our region…

Watch for this system to grow stronger on the European in the coming days.

The ICON Model is also seeing more of a system than the Euro…

This is a legitimate storm system for us to watch this week. The seasonal trends for these systems to become stronger is something that we cannot deny. Why would this one be any different than the others? Well… Here’re a couple of ways… It actually has cold air ahead of it already in place and there’s high pressure to the north of the storm.

You will see lots of model swings over the next day or so before they start coming together by Wednesday. Moral of the story is to not get too excited or depressed based on any one run until then. 🙂

That said, this week is kind of the transition week into a very wintry setup for our region. The Ensembles are seeing the transition pretty well as we head into the middle of the month…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles…

Check back later tonight for a full update. Until then, have a great evening and take care.

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10 Responses to Updating The Return Of Winter

  1. Terry says:

    Transition out of this current pattern has me happy…also, a few dry days in there too:)

  2. MarkLex says:

    Well if the GFS wants to be REALLY EVIL, it can verify one storm, then not the next, this way it will be even harder to know what’s going to verify and what isn’t than it is now.

  3. SpaceGhost says:

    I see the European Ensembles has the snow totals for the tri-state area
    correct for a change…

    • Terry says:

      That is sad. I hope you and Jimbo finally get some. Troy, Andy and I are still trying to recover from the SE KY snow bust back in December. That was a close, heart breaking miss!

    • Jimbo says:

      I noticed that donut hole over the tri-state on the Euro Model. Why am I not surprised?

      • Jimbo says:

        I am pulling for the GFS. But the Euro is usually more accurate.

        • Terry says:

          Except for lately. GFS was wrong on how far north the precip made it but still nailed the SE KY December snow bust; it was the only model that was MOSTLY correct with that system. Also, GFS has been accurate with all of these rain events lately as the NW shift hasn’t been as prolific lately. Still, I want even consider the GFS until about Thursday morning on this pending system.

          I like how the pattern is changing but can we CASH IN? I hope so as I know you want some good snow too!

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