Good Monday, everybody. Here’s hoping you had a great weekend and had the chance to enjoy some of the gorgeous weather we had. As we head into the first full week of the new year, Old Man Winter fights his way back into the region this week. The temp trend is down and we are on guard for a potential late week/weekend winter weather maker.
Let us start with today before we roll forward. Clouds are thickening on a windy and mild day. Those clouds are ahead of a cold front moving our way. This will bring an increase in showers later this afternoon into the evening…
A second front arrives on Tuesday with a few more showers. The air behind this front is very cold, with even colder wind chills. Those wind chills may sneak into the single digits by Thursday morning.
Our northwest wind flow may also be strong enough to spit out some flurries or snow showers across the eastern half of the state. Here are the areas with the best chance of seeing some flakes…
Again, just some flakes. 🙂
The setup for the end of the week into the weekend continues to look like a winter weather maker for our region. This storm system continues to show up very well on most of the forecast models and I suspect they may still be a little undercooked on the strength.
I mentioned how the models would go back and forth on strength and track of this system. The GFS is exhibit A…
The new version of the GFS is the most wrapped up and farthest west of the current models…
That’s a lot of winter weather for our region.
The European Model continues to get stronger, but is showing two waves of low pressure with both bringing winter weather across the state…
If we look at the 21 individual members of the GFS Ensembles, we find many of them targeting our region…
Nothing is set in stone, so let’s give it another day or two and see how this thing looks before getting too excited. As of now, their is an increased potential for winter weather impacting our region late Friday through the weekend.
As we focus on the pattern later next week, we continue to find a major change in the overall northern hemispheric setup. Yesterday, I outlined the four big blocking signatures showing up on the ensembles during this time. Those continue to show up strongly, leading to some of the coldest air relative to normal in the northern hemisphere moving into the eastern half of the country…
That’s one heck of a look!!
I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Monday and take care.
We’ll see what happens. I’m good with dry and cold myself.
We agree Hamlin!!!! Somewhat anyway…. I’d like dry and warm….I’m thinking this is going to be mainly a rain event again, or maybe a slushy snow, gone in a day, just not gonna be cold enough
I want it cold so the wasps and mosquitoes aren’t so bad later. Otherwise, I too prefer warmth.
Totally agree….believe it or not, with the mild temps and incessant rain there are still mosquitoes in my yard which is something I’ve never seen before this time of year.
Ugh! It’s one of those systems for the weekend. Timing the two systems just right so both pieces can phase over the Ohio Valley. The track record on phasing two systems together properly is nothing short of horrible in the Ohio Valley. I’ll take the odds on the Ohio Valley split where we are left mostly dry and watch the East Coast get crushed with a Nor’easter.
Agree. Split is the norm. Remember the key word, potential.
Imagine southern Georgia if e5 came true haha
Thanks Chris. As you said, let’s wait and see. Have a great Monday everyone.
For sure all rain and even thunder for kentucky even southern ohio will get rain sunday
To phase or not to phase, that is the question? Looks like a fence storm to me.
Looks like a messy mix to me. Heavy wet snow for just a few, but mostly rain/sleet/snow for the majority.
That looks to be some really cold air coming in here in a few days.
When will the models have a very accurate idea of how the storm will track? Wednesday?