Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We’ve got a cold front working into Kentucky, bringing a big change in our weather. Winter is on the way back this week and things look very interesting by late Friday into the weekend. That’s when a developing winter storm tries to target the bluegrass state.

Let’s begin with the gusty band of rain rolling across the state from west to east. This is along and ahead of front number one…

Front number two sweeps in late Tuesday and that’s got the cold air with it. Temps tank and may not get above freezing for Wednesday and Thursday. Winds are going to be very gusty, taking those wind chill numbers way down. A few flurries or snow showers are possible across the eastern half of the state.

This brings us to the setup for the weekend. One system is diving in from the northwest as a system comes from the southwest. How these two work together will be the big determining factor on how big our storm gets and exactly where it goes.

Unlike the storm systems of the past month or so, this one has cold air already in place ahead of it and a fresh cold high to the north of it. That increases our odds of winter weather across the entire region.

The latest GFS is a big hitter for our part of the world…

The Canadian Model has had a tough time finding this system, but is in the process of doing so. It doesn’t phase as quickly as the GFS, but still has a healthy winter weather showing around here…

The ICON Model is also on board with a healthy impact…

I’m off your tv today, but I will have another blog update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


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29 Responses to Monday Afternoon Update

  1. Rodger Dodger says:

    FINALLY! A possibility! Please don’t let Rodger down! Rodger in Dodger

  2. Winterlover says:

    Well at least we got something on board to look forward to. Just hope it pans out.

  3. Leeannie says:

    I have a rare trip to Beckley this weekend. Yes, pretty much guarantee it will snow! Lol

  4. Jeff Hamlin says:

    It’s just a shame you have to put “THIS IS ONLY A MODEL FORECAST” on some graphics.

  5. Andy Rose says:

    Looks like a lot of rain for the typical areas again going by the models.

  6. Mike S says:

    The entertainment value of these models are once again scintillating. Let’s just say there is the potential and look for more reliable data in a few days.

  7. StormTrackerWV says:

    Ok, “sports betting” is now legal in West Virginia–how about we set about making it legal to bet on snowstorms and weather forecasts?!!? It would definitely be fun 🙂

  8. Lotsasnow says:

    If its becomes any stronger it will definitely go more nw and give all ky a serious flood

  9. Troy says:

    Had high hopes for the new FV3-GFS but thus far it is only proving to be much worse than the old…. The new GFS (which Chris didn’t post in this update) is currently showing a thumping for southern SE KY and well, we ALL know that’s not gonna happen (which probably why Chris didn’t post it). lol

    • Drew says:

      Or perhaps maybe that is the correct model at this time. Seems to be much more of a rain event than a snow event based on new gfs. Maybe Chris isnt showing it because he wants to keep us engaged to the blog with the snowy models lol

      • Prelude says:

        No the new FV3-GFS takes a lot longer for the data to come in. So when Chris posted the afternoon update the FV3-GFS was still running.

        • Prelude says:

          The new GFS still shows a decent thumping of snow, some areas more than others but a healthy snow. I’m not onboard with any models till late Thursday/Friday.

      • msd says:

        A model is not wrong because it doesn’t show you what you want it to show….

        From what I can see, the new GFS is far superior to the old one. Go to tropical tidbits and use the ‘trend’ feature on a snowfall or upper air map five days out. You’ll see for yourself, the old GFS is horribly inconsistent in comparison to its younger upstart.

  10. Bjenks says:

    Like the chances, but I know past storms of this type generally pull north. Ohio River counties north should be ok for snow. Southern counties not so much. I will say with High pressure setteling into the NE it could keep a phased storm further South. Not trusting any runs of any models until Wednesday.

  11. nasdaq says:

    as Terry mentioned previously, old GFS was the only model to correctly sniff out the SE KY temps on the last decent snow system. I was totally ready to move on the FV3 before that happened.

  12. feederband says:

    Just remember the GFS December 5th, 2018 and the big snowstorm that wasn’t

  13. JimCVG says:

    My kids got new sleds for Christmas. This pretty much guarantees no snow this season.

  14. Jim B says:

    Mostly rain for central ky, temps just won’t be cold enough folks

  15. Terry says:

    The mid-week cold front is strong but I am afraid the residual cold may end up a bit too warm by Friday/Saturday for all snow, especially in SE KY. SE KY could still get snow from this set-up but we need strong upper air dynamic cooling if our temps are going into 40s at the surface as currently projected down here. Dynamic cooling would work if the northern system could phase with the southern low bringing colder air down to the surface. I am not too interested yet for my area of the state but still happy about the pattern trend towards at least normal cold and some chances, which hopefully improve a lot more after 20th!

  16. Drew says:

    Gfs showing a thumping snow for most of ky and fv3-gfs showing much more rain for ky. Which model will win out?? Gonna be interesting. Based on how this winter has went thus far, I’m betting rain. Lol

  17. nasdaq says:

    Pretty good shift south on the 18z GEFS ensemble member solutions from 12z. Fv3 is still north, even with the 1045 high…

  18. Mike S says:

    Phasing may happen just east of us later this week.

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