Here Comes Winter

Good Tuesday, everyone. After a long holiday break, Old Man Winter is ready to return to the bluegrass state in the coming days. Much colder air is surging in and may bring a few flakes with it for the middle of the week. The bigger winter weather threat is lurking for the weekend.

Another weak front is working into the state today and may touch off a shower or two…

Winds are going to be a big time player and may gust 35-40mph at times. Colder air moves in tonight and temps keep sliding to below freezing on Wednesday. Gusty winds may make it feel like the upper teens and low 20s most of the day.

Those wind chills may hit the high single digits by Thursday morning…

The northwest wind will also be able to spit out some flurries or a few snow showers. The Hi Res NAM shows a few streaks going across areas of central and eastern Kentucky, with a little increase in the action in the southeast mountains…

I have no changes to my thought on the late week/weekend storm system. Winter weather is likely to impact much of the region from late Friday through Sunday. The extent of that impact isn’t known just yet, but a decent hit is possible for many across the region.

Let’s get a check on the current status of the forecast models. Remember, these are merely snapshots of the models as they stand now. They will strike different poses from run to run, so don’t be framing any of those prints just yet. 😉

The GFS continues to bring a solid winter weather hit to the region. It continues to have the dividing line across the southern half of the state…

The new version of the GFS is similar, but has a more expansive winter weather shield…

The Canadian Model has a similar line of thinking…

The European Model continues to be the weakest with this system as it is likely too slow with the energy coming in from the southern stream…

Still, there’s no shortage of snow on that run…

We are a little more than 3 days from this event starting, so it’s good to see some pretty good model agreement already coming together. Of course, that means I just jinxed it and they will all show different solutions later today. 🙂

As I have said several times over the past few days, don’t get too excited over any one run or too depressed over any one run. Even slight deviations in the storm’s strength, track or timing can mean a big difference for any one location.

While this is likely a “threat” type of system, let’s see how the models are looking later today and Wednesday. That’s when we should see if any new trends show up.

I will throw you updates later today, so check back. Until the next one, make it a great day and take care.


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27 Responses to Here Comes Winter

  1. Farmer 43 says:

    Nice to see some snow chances after such a disappointing winter so far I think the cold air is marginal especially for January so I’m not gonna get excited and looking beyond the weekend it’s supposed to start warming back up so even if it does snow it’s going to leave fairly quick unless something changes can’t we get some sustained winter I have several hundred acres of cover crops that help with soil health and erosion that should die in the winter and it hasn’t even thought about dying because it hasn’t got cold enough yet such a bizarre winter

  2. Terry says:

    When you are over 3 days away and already wanting more cold air and a southward trending low pressure, you are not in good shape in SE KY…sigh.

    I hope some get some snow on here who want it but I have doubts where i live. Sorry Andy, Troy, Bobt…I hope I am wrong but this looks like an Ohio Valley chance which is not favorable for us. We will watch and see I guess as models I am sure will try to tease us a little. After December, I can’t put much into this one as I was fooled 12 hrs out on that one….that one really hurt!

  3. TennMark says:

    On this date (actually, today and the previous two days) in history was a major snow/ice storm from January 6 to January 8, 1996. This epic event is perhaps best known for bringing the infamous Blizzard of 96 to the northeast. Philadelphia got 31 inches. Areas of New York City (Staten Island in particular) exceeded 30 inches. But eastern areas of both Kentucky and Tennessee still got several good inches, with some locales in higher elevations getting around a foot.

    I was about 12 and living in Morristown TN at the time. I won’t forget watching The Late Show and seeing David Letterman arriving on a sleigh outside of the Ed Sullivan Theater with huge mounds of snow everywhere! I can’t recall why I was up that late, though. Perhaps it was a Friday night. Or maybe Morristown schools had already called off school for the next day.

    From a broader sense, I recall we got snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm during January and February 1996. As a result, there were lots of makeup days tacked on to the end of the school year. 🙁 Still, there was no single snow that season that even came close to what I experienced during the March 13 1993 Superstorm!

  4. TennMark says:

    Before we know it, the spring months will be here. But with spring will also come the peak severe weather season in our area as we know only too well.

    Thus NWS offices in our area have already scheduled storm spotter training to get new and current spotters prepared before the spring months arrive. Both more traditional c-l-a-s-s-e-s as well as online courses are offered. Here is just a small sample.

    NWS Paducah:
    https://w2.weather.gov/pah/spottertraining

    NWS Jackson (KY):
    https://www.weather.gov/jkl/spotter

    As important as advances like dual-pol radar are in providing advanced warning from tornadoes and other weather hazards, trained spotters quickly p-a-s-s-i-n-g on additional “ground truth” is still vital. Besides tornadoes, spotters can send various reports and warnings all year long such as snowfall/sleet/freezing rain measurements, hailstone sizes, the type of precipitation falling and so on. Contact your nearest NWS office for more information.

  5. MB says:

    The milk and bread hysteria is now on high alert!!

  6. Schroeder says:

    As long as the state of Alaska is frigid as it is now, this winter will continue to be uneventful for the Ohio Valley. Maybe in February and March when the days get longer this may bring a change in the Arctic to favor more winter weather events here in the Ohio Valley ?

    • Jeff says:

      Schroeder you have to build cold there first before it funnels down into the lower 48 and South East. It doesn’t just magically get and stay cold down here without a decent build up of cold air up north. But for the millionth time thanks for breaking your word saying you would disappear from here. Everyone on this board can now say they can’t believe a word that you say on here because you have not once followed through and continue to bring your negativity and disagreements with Chris’s forecast.

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      Schroeder you have to build cold there first before it funnels down into the lower 48 and South East. It doesn’t just magically get and stay cold down here without a decent build up of cold air up north. But for the millionth time thanks for breaking your word saying you would disappear from here. Everyone on this board can now say they can’t believe a word that you say on here because you have not once followed through and continue to bring your negativity and disagreements with Chris’s forecast.

  7. LOUteach says:

    I’ll take snow here in the city (LOU) over a weekend any time! Less school make up days. Looking forward to the potential for some snow this weekend, and some sledding time!

  8. Russell says:

    I’ll still believe it when I see it….a lot of rain on the models…

  9. Cameron Fry says:

    Rooting for the Euro down in NW Middle TN. Granted, I’ll probably have to chase to Cape G to see appreciable snow.

  10. Mike S says:

    WPC trending toward a wetter solution through Sunday a.m. downstate. NAO still looks weak going forward to this weekend event. In other words, the coldest air, which is not Arctic by the way, should reside north and east of the region, allowing this storm system to bring its own relative warmth to our region. Look for the trend. I still believe that parts of the region will experience frozen precipitation, but this may not be the region wide smackdown as teased by these ‘entertaining’ models.

    • Cameron Fry says:

      Well said. This system is a step in the right direction, but it’s more like a service storm IMO. I imagine we’ll see more substantial threats during the 2nd half of Jan/1st half of Feb, but this storm, while it has a purpose in the big picture, doesn’t seem it will check all the boxes. Just my $0.02.

      On a side comment, since I have $0 spent in the chase budget, I’m trying to figure out if I should go towards Cape G Friday night or go more north towards Evansville. Would like to head over to Lexington at some point this winter since I’ve never been. Any guidance greatly appreciated. 🙂

  11. Jamie says:

    Kroger sales boost

  12. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Guess we will see

  13. BringOnTheSnow says:

    I don’t understand why Schroeder’s comments are hated on so much when 70% of everyone’s comments on this blog are negative.

    • Cameron Fry says:

      There’s a long history that is probably better left for someone else to explain. But I agree with you in the sense there is a lot of negative banter on this forum. I’d be surprised if CB didn’t outsource someone to moderate his blog.

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