Winter Weather Thoughts

Good evening, folks. Temps are beginning to drop and will tank in a hurry later tonight into Wednesday. This cold air will settle in for the rest of the week, setting the stage for winter weather by the weekend. The threat for accumulating snow continues to increase for much of the region.

The European Model for the weekend system has much more of a snow signal than earlier runs, but also shows the southern half of the state with some mixing and rain issues on Saturday, before going back to some snow on Sunday. The following maps go from Friday night through Sunday night…

Here’s the snowfall map from that run of the European Model…

Notice how it’s turning the “bridge” into more of a straight road from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic. The control run of the European Ensembles from WeatherBell is doing the same thing…

The WeatherBell European Ensembles average from 51 different members has a healthy event from west to east…

The latest GFS has a little more mixing in there, cutting down on totals in parts of western and southern Kentucky…

Should we even trust the GFS or any of the American Models? Apparently the government shutdown means there’s no one to maintain or fix any issues the models may have…

That’s interesting and something we will take note of going forward.

I will have the latest on our weekend winter storm potential coming up on WKYT-TV at 11. A full update comes your way later tonight with threat mode looming.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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13 Responses to Winter Weather Thoughts

  1. Terry says:

    It stinks but SE KY has never been in the main game on this storm. If the storm draws in too much warm air, it will be Lexington and surrounding counties near the city on up to the Ohio River that will be sad due to excess mixing. I am still glad the pattern is changing at least and 4 straight dry days in Harlan going on 5!!

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Hanks Chris. I always enjoy reading your updates when winter weather is on the menu. Of course I enjoy reading it every day as I have for many years. I have to say I like the weather bell thing as it gives us more of a snow chance. But I also have reservations for personal reasons. Either way we will take whatever comes and if it is snow I will love it, and if it’s more cold rain I will jump in bed and hide! Have a good night all! 😉

  3. Lurker says:

    How far out do the models start to show the northwest shift?

  4. Jimbo says:

    Thanks for the info on the NWS. But the Charleston NWS is usually always late to the party especially when it comes to Winter precip. That being said, you never can totally rule out rain in the tri-state.

    • Terry says:

      The temps are going colder but not cold enough, well for at least SE KY snow lovers. I know we are trending in the right direction, but this is not how I foresaw this winter back in the fall. Terrible start in my area. Maybe the warm air want fully reach you. Fingers crossed for you but I am not interested in this for my area not the best look for you either. Sigh

      • Cold-Rain says:

        If we rain this weekend so be it but watch for the 20th time frame for our next shot..GEFS is hinting at something major in the East..Hopefully its hope it holds..

        • Terry says:

          This wasnt the pattern I thought was going to occur through the first half of winter but hopefully we can salvage 3 to 6 weeks of winter coming up. It is what it is!

  5. Lotsasnow says:

    Hate to say it but look at the 0 run of the nam going way north bringing a line of thunderstorms to all of kentucky

  6. Cold-Rain says:

    Guess you could say the Nam is all amped up and ready to go..Probably a foot of snow in Missouri..Be interesting what it shows tomorrow for ky..

    • Terry says:

      I am being a whine baby (lol) but I think I am going to shut this one out. I see very little possibility for my area. Not impossible, just not favorable. I can’t deal with another December bust, though this set-up is different with our area not targeted like December. Still, I hope you get some snow and anyone else that wants it. I will post again next week after this mess is over.

  7. Russell says:

    Well I’m going to call it WKY either misses out or much much less than most…

  8. Jimbo says:

    I once again think this will end up being an I70 and WV mountain snow. Rain from I64 south and west.

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