Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for the northern half of the bluegrass state from Friday night through the upcoming weekend. In the overall scheme of things, I have no changes to how this looks to play out.

I’ll get to that in a moment, but we still have flurries and snow showers showing up across areas of central and eastern Kentucky…

As expected, we had some school delays earlier this morning as a few roads were coated in snow.

Moving on to the weekend winter storm. My threat area remains the same, with the northern half of the state in the line of fire…

I’ve talked about how we are likely to get three different waves of precipitation pushing across the state over the weekend. I’m going to handle them one at a time, but for the purpose of the First Call For Snowfall map, I’m ONLY talking about the first wave Friday night and Saturday morning…

That’s a pretty good swath of snow working from west to east during this time. The southern edge of that may have some rain or switch to rain, hence the lower amounts.

I will handle the snowfall forecasts for the other waves later tonight.

There’s likely to be a break in the action Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening, but the next wave moves in after that. That’s in the form of snow in the north and rain in the south and southeast.

Another light snow maker moves in late Sunday and Monday.

Remember, we are talking snowfall and not total snow depth. Wet snows compact quickly.

The latest computer models are pretty much holding their own compared to previous runs. One of these models is not like the others…

Candian

NAM

GFS

The GFS continues to show way less total precipitation than any other model. Not just across Kentucky, but for the entire storm system. Still, it’s finally seeing the northern Kentucky snow better than prior runs.

Some thoughts to remember:

  • The farther north you live the better the chance of picking up several inches of snow.
  • Areas across southern Kentucky may not see much in the way of snow after Friday night. Even then, it’s light.
  • This system comes at us in waves.
  • Snowfall does not equal snow depth.
  • A one degree difference is all it takes to more the forecast lines north or south. One stinking degree.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and have another update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.


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23 Responses to Thursday Afternoon Update

  1. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB! Looking like a KY river hugger.

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I really wish you were talking about snow for us south central Kentuckians instead of a cold rain….but it is what it is. Have a great afternoon everyone.

  3. Rodger Dodger says:

    Rodger thinks this storm could be underestimated. Lots of dynamics. The right spots could get big snows. Rodger in Dodger

    • BengalFan says:

      I think he has pointed out several times now where the “right spots” will be. NKY

      The only thing that stinks is that he said the Cold Air will be in place, (and it’s 28 degrees with sun right now in Richmond), but Saturday/Saturday evening most likely mix of rain. Cold air will get pushed out of the way a little to make room for the rain….we really can’t blame the rain, shoot, it will get VERY jealous ..this has been its playground the whole stinking year!

  4. Christopher Gregory says:

    Anything is possible yall

  5. Julie says:

    Poor Columbia never gets snow:(

  6. JimCVG says:

    Local (Cincy) mets are saying 2-4″ so this post lines up with those. Now I just want the heavier stuff to move east. I’d rather be in the 3-6″ range.

    • KBINNKY says:

      I’m with you – The latest Euro run had a big hit for NKY through Sunday evening, with the biggest impacts about 10-50 miles south of the Ohio, hope it’s right!

  7. John Marsden says:

    Chris, I really like the Candian model. Been a while since I’ve had a Candian beer 😉
    I’m up in Northern VA, read your blog daily. I learn more from you than any of my local sources. So, have a beer!

  8. Tom says:

    GFS looks better on the latest run for more of Ky.

  9. Teach says:

    NWS is saying confidence is low on Sunday system as temperatures will be above freezing. Thoughts?

  10. Lotsasnow says:

    Kentucky will be all RAIN

    • Troy says:

      Whatever….at this point you’re only trolling. The northern 2/3 of KY will definitely receive some snow. In the lower 1/3 you may be correct but to generalize all of KY is absurd at best….

  11. Winterlover says:

    Troy, He’s a buckeye resident and a ky hater.

  12. Lori says:

    Winter Storm Watch posted for Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky and SE Indiana. 3-5 inches.

  13. Lotsasnow says:

    I lived in ky i love ky

  14. Ray Roark says:

    I’m not trolling, just saying I’m starting to hate this winter season because of every snowstorm missing us. We have way too much rain. We are absolutely waterlogged. Rain Rain Rain!!!! That’s all we get…ugh! Oh well. Better luck next time I guess.

  15. Russell says:

    Ray you are right!

  16. nasdaq says:

    weeklies look good

  17. BubbaG says:

    Another storm missing the Lexington media market. This storm seems more Cincinnati coverage 😉 🙂

  18. Over_it says:

    Left out again in southern Kentucky. We have usually had at least an inch or two on the ground by this point. Nothing but rain and ice that one storm. Where is that big shot of winter we kept hearing about? NWS and TWC has us back up in the 50’s next week.I’m thinking winter just isn’t coming.

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