Winter Storm Watch North

Good evening, folks. We continue to run in Winter Storm THREAT mode and now comes a Winter Storm Watch for far northern Kentucky. This is only the beginning as additional advisories/watches and warnings will be issued later tonight.

Here’s a look at where the initial watch is…

My thoughts from earlier have not changes, so I will spare you the long breakdown again. Here’re my current expectations with the initial round of snow from late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning…

The rest of the forecast from Saturday afternoon through Sunday remains a little murky. That all depends on where the rain/snow line sets up…

The Hi Resolution RPM Model that’s run from WSI is showing the heaviest snow farther south than any other model and is more oriented toward the Interstate 64 corridor…

The  European model really blasts much of northern Kentucky…

The control run of the European Model (WeatherBell) is a little more expansive with the snow…

The average from the 51 members of the European Ensembles (WeatherBell)…

The GFS is finally starting to see the expanded precipitation shield every other model has been picking up on, but is still too disjointed…

 

Part of the problem with the GFS is the thermal profile. The model is showing freezing rain across Kentucky, but no other model is really showing much of that.

I will have the updates numbers tonight on WKYT-TV at 11 and on KWC later tonight. Make it a good one and take care.


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30 Responses to Winter Storm Watch North

  1. Hoptown guy in Indiana says:

    If Louisville gets that snow pack Friday night I would think that would keep temps cool enough for all snow Saturday and Sunday . I bet Louisville / southern Indiana sees 6-8 before Monday morning . Anxious to see if models pick up on some of that cooler air around the snowpack .

  2. Jimmie says:

    Here’s to hoping the GFS is just an outlier and is wrong about the freezing rain. I’d rather have 33 and rain than FR.

  3. Coffeelady says:

    Boy Chris! You are just full of great news! Oh well it is what it is. And while I don’t want cold rain, I don’t want freezing rain either! So I guess we will see what we wind up with. Have a good night all.

  4. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Go RPM.

  5. AC says:

    The GFS thermal profiles, as Chris said yesterday, were not synced properly, showing a mismatch between 850MB temperatures and surface temperatures. Freezing rain, although possible at times, doesn’t appear to be the dominating P-TYPE here.

    I’d guess I-64 and north are more in line for 3-6″ of snow and in the Lex area maybe 2-4″ of snow. Not all of this may a-c-c-u-m-u-l-a-t-e at the same time. Less the further south you go.

    • BubbaG says:

      So in other words, more likely 1 to 2 of mix. Seems etched in model stone- Kentucky could be the fence this winter for bigger snows chances. Next one dibs on it going south 😉

      • AC says:

        *laughs* Bubba, it’s just snow. I’m not going to get too depressed either way. I do, however, think we’re going to have at least a little snow on the ground after this.

        The NKY modeling showing an increase in precip here in the past few runs is interesting. There’s definitely snow on the way for some of us. 🙂

        Next storm south? Why not the whole state share in a little of the fun? We don’t need a 12″ whopper! lol

  6. Josh says:

    Rain for Ashland, it keeps moving north. Temps r showing to warm for the snow….. what’s new lol

    • Coreyfromtheky says:

      Nah man…I’m in greenup…we should be in a good spot…I asked Chris on Twitter lol

    • Jim B says:

      I’ve Been saying the movement north thing for days now, along with several others. Be careful apparently that is considered disrespectful by some haha

    • Jimbo says:

      I agree, I am near Huntington. I suspected all along this would be an I-70 snow. I don’t think that will be too far off. When you live in the tri-state and see rain/snow or wintry mix in your forecast, you know about 98% of the precip will be rain.

  7. Andy Rose says:

    I’m just cheering for whichever has the lest amount of rain.

  8. BubbaG says:

    So it’s trending even Mo’ north! Ankle biter fevah! 🙂 😉

  9. Cold-Rain says:

    Well for us armchair mets in EKY if you predict rain instead of snow 99% of the time you will look really really smart..lol..Seriously though hope it overachieves and the Northern counties cash in..Good luck..Still keeping an eye on the 20th time frame for a real storm..Wish us all luck..

  10. Dane says:

    Way to go Chris! How much for us up in Covington? I’m guessing about 4 1/2″ here.

  11. Winter Warlock says:

    River storm. Enough said.

  12. Jared from Letcher County says:

    New NAM high resolution puts snow on the ground Friday night for all but the southernmost tier of counties:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011100&fh=48

  13. Sarah says:

    Go north young man, go north…lol We don’t need or want any snow, Please let this be a rain event for my area.

  14. JEFF says:

    Hi MRS. KETCHUM RULES!!!!!

  15. waterfordian says:

    Lets hope for lots of snow in Ohio. Go Waterford Wildcats and Marrietta Tigers!!!

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