Winter Storm Threat Continues

Good Friday, folks. Our developing winter storm is inching closer to the bluegrass state and will throw waves of precipitation at us over the weekend. The first arrives in the west later this afternoon then develops across the rest of the state tonight, This delivers mainly snow, with the additional waves showing more of a split personality later Saturday and Sunday.

Let’s begin with the latest Winter Weather Alerts…

That map should really fill in early today in preparation for the first round of snow working in here from the west. I mentioned a few days ago how this could become an overachiever right out of the gate and that’s certainly a real possibility, especially for areas of central and western parts of the state. Here’s my latest call for snowfall through Saturday morning ONLY…

Will that be perfect? Nope, but it’s a rough estimate of how this may play out.  Again, those lines may go a bit north or south depending on how the day plays out. I will offer up two more snowfall forecasts before the evening, if needed.

A quick check on what the models are showing through around noon on Saturday, finds some impressive numbers.

Here’s the Hi Res NAM

The NAM

Short range Canadian

Canadian

European

GFS

For the rest of the weekend, my thoughts remain pretty much unchanged. The best chance for snow is across the northern parts of the state, with rain across the southern half and a buffer zone in the middle. That’s the zone that could go either way from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday…

A degree or so will make a big difference in where the rain vs. snow line sets up. That may be a game time decision. I will try to focus more on that round at some point today, but the initial round is getting most of my attention out of the gate.

I will have another update by noon or so. Make it a good one and take care.


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39 Responses to Winter Storm Threat Continues

  1. Feederband says:

    I suppose a WWA is better than nothing.

  2. Russell says:

    Winter 2019…RIP…..rain train rolls on

  3. Terry says:

    I am cheering for Jimbo!:)

    Still, I don’t think he gets much. Some of northern KY looks good, especially around Florence. I think around Lexington/Louisville on east will get some but will be a flash melt-off tomorrow south of far northern KY.

    I can see tomorrow’s tweets rolling in from Central KY area like this: Morning will be happy tweets with people gloating about some wet snowfall, but by evening, sad tweets asking where it went….that is how I think this goes down. I am glad that the models left SE KY out as this go around is too warm with no big let down for me as this not a big snow miss:)

    • Jimbo says:

      Thanks for the shout out, Terry. But it doesn’t look good for my area at all. The snow tonight looks to die away right on the WV/KY border. Anything after that will probably be rain. Usually if the forecast says rain/snow or wintry mix its about 98% rain here. I am also wondering about the supposed pattern change to colder? My extended forecast calls for 45 to 50 degree highs all next week after Monday

      • Sarah says:

        Good grief, Jimbo. Are you this negative about everything in life, or just the weather?

      • Terry says:

        Should be the week of 20th for first arctic surge. Hopefully, ***key word here***, we don’t fully lose the overachieving subjet but suppress it into the Carolinas so we can END OUT these lows on top of KY and the region as we have been stuck in for months. We need some systems to travel from the Gulf States into the Carolinas to clobber both ourvregions!

  4. Over_it says:

    We might as well accept that this winter was a bust. Covington area “may” get lucky but at this point I’m not convinced. Here in Southern Kentucky we’re pretty sick of rain.

  5. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou is excited to see all our snow on the ground in the morning…all 60 minutes of it!

  6. JimCVG says:

    Winter storm warning for Covington!

  7. Machell Adams says:

    I’m forever optimistic, so I’ll just be over here waiting alone for a big snow fall. (I think it can, I think it can)

  8. Winterlover says:

    I’m in the snow line area for tonight , but tomorrow could be iffy will see how this plays out. Thanks Chris for all you do and have a good day.

  9. Schroeder says:

    Viewing all of Chris’s weather models since Tuesday. The states of Missouri and central Illinois really stand out as to getting a major snow event ? The storm weakens as it moves into Indiana and Ohio. If there was a northern component ( Albert Clipper ) negative charge or an upper level low pressure system phasing with the subtropical jet ( positive charge ) the whole state of Kentucky would be in a winter storm watch and latter upgraded to a warning as the snow starts falling and accumulating. But for all snow lovers out there WINTER IS NOT OVER. I still think as the days get longer the weather pattern will change over to a more winter pattern for Kentucky. In the meantime you will have to take what we get !

  10. MB says:

    No milk and bread run needed.

  11. Troy says:

    Who in the southern tier counties want to make some mud balls or a mud man?!!!! 🙂 🙂 😉

  12. nasdaq says:

    Very good looks on the ensembles this morning. Queue the “winter is over” comments, LUL

  13. Winter Warlock says:

    Just a dusting probably in Central KY! Ha ha…NOT! (Got to have a Frank Faulkner reference in this thread somewhere) Will be laughing this turns into an overachiever!!

  14. Mike S says:

    Far northern Ky included in warning

  15. Jeff Hamlin says:

    No bread and milk needed for me! #keto

  16. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I really wish you had better news for us snow starved folks in the southern half of Kentucky. I know you only forecast what you see, but doggone it, we have had so much stinking rain its hard to think about more. I will try to see some of the snow tonight before it changes over to rain. Depends on when it starts and how long I can say awake. 🙂 Have a great afternoon everyone.

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