Winter Storm Alert

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a Winter Storm ALERT for parts of our region through the upcoming weekend. This is a prolonged winter storm that will drop several inches of snow for many, with lighter snows and even rain for other areas.

Let’s begin with the current Winter Weather Alerts…

As of this writing, I think the Winter Storm Warning should be extended just a bit farther south.

Let’s begin with the snow system moving in this afternoon and evening from west to east. I have no substantial changes to the snow ideas with this first round through Saturday morning…

This has the potential to be an overachiever from the Lexington area back toward Louisville and Owensboro. The area where it could underachieve is between Paducah and Bowling Green.

Again, those lines won’t be perfect by any means, but it gives you a general idea of how it may play out. A touch of sleet and freezing rain may mix across parts of the region, but shouldn’t be a big deal.

Let’s get you caught up on what the latest models are seeing through Saturday morning.

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Short Range Canadian

Canadian

GFS

The GFS continues to be different with the thermal profiles than the other models. In turn, the model shows more freeing rain…

That’s likely overdone, which would add a little more to the snow totals than what it shows.

The rest of the weekend continues to see the battle zone between rain and snow setting up across the Interstate 64 corridor. Several inches of snow is likely to fall in far northern Kentucky Saturday afternoon, but a few of the models are bringing the snow potential a little farther south Saturday night and Sunday.

The Hi Res NAM snow map has some 4″+ snow amounts Saturday night/Sunday along and north of the BG Parkway and Interstate 64 in central and eastern Kentucky…

The NAM is trying to hot spot an area of 4″+ snows along the 64 corridor of eastern Kentucky…

Again, those are just totals from Saturday night and Sunday.

Here’s your regional radar to track today’s snow in from the west…

Stay tuned for updates. Have a good one and take care.


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36 Responses to Winter Storm Alert

  1. Virgil E says:

    Just let it be done with in time for the Crews to treat the roads before Monday Morning.

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I hope we get to see some snow before it goes over to rain here. i really do need to see some good snow! So whoever gets it, please share pictures! I will be sure to share pictures of the cold rain n the southern half of the states as well! 😉 Have a good afternoon, and run get you bread and milk before its gone! 😉

  3. BubbaG says:

    If this storm were for CB’s actual viewing demographic, this forum would explode today!

  4. TeachLou says:

    Looking forward to some sledding time this weekend in the LOU area. I’ve seen some reports of flakes beginning to fly late this afternoon? We shall see.

  5. JimCVG says:

    Sunshine currently in Covington. We’re right on the edge of most models’ big snow forecasts, so I hope they hold up and we don’t get a sharp cutoff just to the west!

  6. Josh says:

    First call for Ashland snow fall totals from ole joshy poo is 0 – 0 inches.
    Unless jimbo would volunteer to truck a load in here from Alaska so I can build a snowman?

  7. Cold-Rain says:

    First time actually seeing this model..Never knew it was on tropical tidbits..Reading about it it was launched in 2017..Mesoscale model that goes out to 48hrs..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011112&fh=48

  8. BengalFan says:

    Well cold was in place, but just top 20 percentage of state.

  9. Russell says:

    A WKY miss….where is the snow

  10. AC says:

    Thinking the WSW should be expanded to include Jefferson, Oldham, Trimble, Carroll, Gallatin, Henry, Owen, Grant, Pendleton, and Meade counties.

    • feederband says:

      I think they’re thinking the rain line will be on the river or slightly above hence less accumulating snow. It all depends on temps and when the change over occurs. Not easy to predict winter weather in the Ohio Valley. I would welcome 4-6 inches in the Metro but only if it would stick around a while.

      • AC says:

        Definitely going to turn into a nowcast situation if the snow starts to get heavy in the LOU metro. The 3-6″ forecasted zone is on some models, not on others. WWA are a safe bet for the rest of the area. It being 38 degrees here in LEX now is interesting. Need to check on the soundings and look at wet bulb, 0Z line, humidity, and dewpoint when temps are well above freezing like this. Going to need some dynamic cooling. Marginal situation for some. Will be interesting to watch unfold.

        • AC says:

          Max wet bulb as of last update via SPC shows the 0 line in south-central KY and -1 along and just south of the I-64 corridor. Looks like most of the initial precip this evening just about areawide will be in the form of snow. Far southern Kentucky may have a mix of rain and snow, obviously unless the max wet bulb temperature drops in those areas…

          Dendritic growth layers are more supportive of heavy snow closer to the low and in MO right now, obviously closer to the moisture source. This is really a tricky one to forecast–track and temp will still both be crucial through the duration of the event.

          • Bobt says:

            Not wanting to disappoint, but the nowcast models had 4+ inches snow for my area of Kentucky back in December and we basically got zilch. Just look out the window and see what it’s doing is much more accurate.

            • AC says:

              Nowcasting sometimes doesn’t do the best either with so much data being fed into the models on a much more frequent basis. The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model can sometimes overdo precipitation amounts as well as the NAM also being guilty of this. I’d be happy with an overall snow of 2-4″ here in LEX.

  11. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    I am glad for the ones that will get it even if it’s not me lol Maybe I will get to see a few flakes fly! You guys enjoy!! My sis near Indy is expecting 5-6 inches!! Don’t work too hard Chris but I know you will.

  12. I was wishing so hard that we would get a big Snowfall in Whitley city,
    It’s been way too long since we got a good Snow. ❄
    I would Love a Snow like we got in February 1998 or January 1985 or even March 1993 now that was Beautiful Snow’s.⛄❄⛄
    I’m just so tired of all the Rain☔

  13. Jim B says:

    Like I said last week, rain wins out in the end with system… sorry snowlovers. Just not gonna get that sustained cold you need this winter

    • Winterlover says:

      Jim B, were only 20 days into winter and what does make you think that we won’t get sustained cold. Mother nature always have something up its sleeve.

      • Jim B says:

        The weather pattern suggests it so far, in my opinion, and that’s all it is, an opinion, haha, based on trends. However, I am pulling for you snowlovers to get at least one good that is not washed away a few hours later by rising temps and rain, even though I am a spring guy

        • Jude says:

          Are you a meteorologist?

          • Jim B says:

            Not even close haha

            • Bobt says:

              Only 20 days into seasonal winter, but almost 45 days into meteorogical winter. It’s been mild and snowless for most of the state so far. Might get some nice snows but we are almost at the halfway point in meteorogical winter. Average highs and some nice days usually start popping up in mid-February. I like snow but would rather have sunshine and warm instead of cold rains like winter has been up to this point

  14. Mike S says:

    I have a Euro vs. GFS challenge I constructed using 18 random locations from Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri per CB’s maps he posted last Tuesday for the snowfall totals through Sunday. Little did I know one of the places I selected has been in the news today, expecting nearly a foot of snow this weekend. Let’s just say the GFS wasn’t very aggressive in its forecast for that run.

  15. SHAAK says:

    Louisville is forecast for 34 degrees, so at least the roads should be ok.

  16. Terry says:

    With a dewpoint of 18 this late in the game and not really rising plus north wind still in place, I could see Harlan getting a dab before the dreaded cold rain.

  17. Bryan says:

    Welcome to Kentucky, where the pattern change to winter is always right around the corner.

  18. Msd says:

    For those who are missing out, for some laughs take a look at the 18z gfs. Yes, yes, it’s all fantasy land but it’s fun watching. Literally brings a piece of the polar vortex down into the Ohio Valley. Insane look past the ten day mark.

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