Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Drip, Drip, Drip… That’s what many folks are hearing as the overnight nightfall melts away as temps climb. Now comes the rain for many areas, with the snow potential confined to northern parts of the state, before a lighter brand of snow shows up area-wide late Sunday and Sunday night.

I’ll also talk about the potential for an extreme winter pattern engulfing much of the country.

This is another blowout post, so buckle up.

Let’s begin with our Saturday. The overnight and early morning snow had some winners and some losers. The dry air held tight in northeastern Kentucky, leading to wimpier snows that I thought. Much of the rest of the region played out in decent enough shape.

As mentioned, the snow continues to lift north and hangs around this region into the rest of the afternoon. This is the region still seeing Winter Weather Alerts…

Rain develops for much of the state this afternoon and continues through tonight, with the snow line in the north. How far south that snow line gets is still in question. The NAM brings it farther south than the GFS. Here are the snow maps from late afternoon through Sunday morning…



As that pulls away, one small disturbance is leftover for late Sunday into Monday morning. This will be a light mix and light snow maker than can put down light accumulations across, especially southeastern Kentucky…

Temps rebound quickly by the middle of the week before another system moves in with rain by Friday. That takes us into next weekend and another potent setup. The European Model presses arctic air in here with a storm system developing along the boundary…

That’s a snow signal from the lower Mississippi Valley through our region and into the Mid-Atlantic.

The Canadian has a similar look…

The new version of the GFS is also similar but has two storms…

The GFS has the same look, but is, predictably, farther east…

The model does follow that up with another potent storm that unleashes brutal cold on the country…

The funny thing is… Something like that is totally plausible in the pattern taking shape. It’s uncanny how this is evolving in relation to the winter forecast and my analog years.

You’re really going to be hard pressed to ever find a colder look on the Ensembles than what they’re giving us over the next few weeks…

This is a pattern locking in for a prolonged stretch of harsh winter weather for much of the country.  Terms like “polar vortex” and “snowmageddon” will likely be thrown around by national media over the next 6 weeks or so. Book it. 😉

Another update comes your way this evening. Until then, I leave you with your Saturday afternoon tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
I-64 WB @ MP 97


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Have a good one and take care.

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30 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Greenup def missed out on the snow last night with too much dry air in place

  2. nasdaq says:

    Our best chance to cash in yet, Bring it ❄

  3. Terry says:

    This will be SE KY snow dream pattern if these two factors hold:

    1) Subjet stays active
    2) Subjet is not compressed down to the Gulf or ever farther south.

    My thoughts are we cash in!….obviously, many don’t believe me locally and probably want on here either but I think this will be a great pattern, not just for SE KY but regional basis too. Time will tell if I am wrong or right.

  4. Winterlover says:

    Andy, Chris is warning us in what he sees down the road in a week or so. Pattern does change and I trust in what Chris says.

  5. Rodger Dodger says:

    Wow, that northeaster on the GFS would be huge! LONG way to go with the models this week. Snow lovers actually don’t want that super cold as it will push systems too far south. Rodger in Dodger

  6. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I enjoyed the snow that Richmond got. Yes Bubba, it snowed here. 😉

  7. Rickie H says:

    It’s been said that it would take 2-3 weeks for the Vortex to get to us. I guess it’s on the way. Chris says Book it. That’s what I’ll do.
    Thanks Chris !

  8. Mike says:

    My 1/2 inch of snow has now turned into 36 deg. rain…… Bring on the polar vortex. I would rather have dry sub zero than cold rain.

  9. In Morehead this morning, we easily had at least and inch 1/2, we think it was more; never really melted off of car and unheated roofs all of the way, now it is snowing again…Good day for ball games and chilli!!!! Morehead got in a pretty good spot this time…

  10. BubbaG says:

    CB, doen’t it look like the majority of the snow for the models is more east and north east? KY is light blue and the darker dark blues, purples, etc are to the east of KY in all the model progressions. Hopefully not another storm that is more regional and not much Kentucky 😉

  11. Russell says:

    BubbaG my thoughts exactly….

  12. Lotsasnow says:

    Between 6 and 7 inchs of snow and still coming down hard.

  13. Cold-Rain says:

    Bubba..Operational models..Will change 20 times..All that matters is they agree with there ensembles that there may be snow in that time frame and we may have a a few days ago the East coast may get clobbered..Been watching this system for about a week..If it hits up and down the coast and leaves EKY with nothing i’ll never look at another model the rest of winter..One knife through the heart in early December is enough..Spring can’t spring fast enough..

    • Jimbo says:

      I suspect at this time next week, we will be talking about after one more temp spike mid week then Old Man Winter returns with cold and snow. Until that time comes and we are still on the rain train.

      • Cold-Rain says:

        It may change but someone is gonna get a good snow next weekend according to modeling at the moment..Some give EKY some snow love but the bulk of the snow is to our east and north east..Just being in the hunt i guess is all that matters at this time..Dread the frigid arctic air if models are correct..These ole bones crack and pop enough already..

  14. Elk says:

    What is the likelihood that the “snowmageddon” will actually cross over the Ohio River and drop some white stuff on Kentucky?

  15. Mike says:

    Oh … and they plowed the streets of Richmond last night/this morning. …for 1/2 inch of snow. I hope we didn’t pay overtime for that.

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