Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a cold day across the bluegrass state as a few flakes fly from time to time. This same setup is with us for the next couple of days before we focus on two systems later this week into the weekend. The weekend system is likely to be a winter storm, bringing lots of different precipitation types to the state.

As mentioned, flakes will fly on and off through Wednesday. A touch of freezing drizzle may also show up during this time. Some light accumulations of both are possible.

The Thursday and early Friday system will zip right across the state from west to east. This will bring mainly rain with it, but some frozen stuff may show up at the state and the end…

How far south does the boundary behind that set up? That’s the big question over the next few days because the weekend winter storm is going to ride that boundary. The models go back and forth on the exact placement of the front and subsequent storm track.

Regardless, this storm is going to produce a lot of precipitation in our region. Anything from flooding rains to significant snow and ice, or all three, are possible Saturday and Sunday. It’s simply way too early to get more specific than that.

The latest GFS has a lot of rain and snow…

The Canadian Model is finally seeing the system in front of it better, so it’s slowly going toward what the GFS and European Models have been showing…

Given the arctic high pressure to the north and the amount of deep cold it’s bringing, a storm cutting through the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes does not seem like a very likely option. A more likely option is a low working toward southeastern Kentucky with another low popping to the east.

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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53 Responses to Monday Afternoon Update

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I wouldn’t mind seeing a good old school snow. At least it would be prettier to look at than this cold dreary rain that seems to have gone on forever. ~sigh~ One can hope I reckon and I am usually the eternal optimist so we will see what kind of rain we can get out of the weekend storm. Have a good afternoon all.

  2. Jimbo says:

    I don’t like the track of next weekends storm on the models. A west to east track across Kentucky doesn’t bode well for snow lovers, it looks to pull up too much warm air ahead of it, just like this past weekend did. Need a storm to move from the Gulf near Florida to near Virginia Beach that way the warm air is cut off for us. Time will tell.

    • BubbaG says:

      As long as not ice, cold rain and mix with a little snow is fine by me 🙂

    • Bryan says:

      Need one to run up the Appalachians. This track favors a heavy rain to a backside snow with maybe 1-3″ of wet snow.

      On an unrelated note, do we even get Alberta Clippers anymore? Those were always good for 2-3″ of snow, maybe 4″ locally. Those seem to be a thing of the past as well

      • Jimbo says:

        I noticed that. Seems Clipper and northwest flow snow is almost nonexistent. And the the few that have showed up are so weak they only generate dustings but mostly just flurries.

        • BubbaG says:

          Those went away a few years ago. Seems that after the three big snows a few years ago, clippers went on a sabbatical.

      • feederband says:

        The old Alberta Clipper. I miss them. Just like the weekly cold front thunderstorms of the 70’s and 80’s. One could look to the southwest on a summer afternoon and see black clouds on the horizon. Miss those days.

  3. Lisa Jones says:

    Love your weather up dates, read them everyone.

  4. Winter Warlock says:

    If ya dont like the most recent model runs….wait and check back later today or tomorrow or tomorrow night as they flip back and forth. As CB said at the end of his post it is just too early to tell. Fingers crossed though! At least we are at the table and in the game!!

    • BubbaG says:

      The models are not really leading us on right now, since the average solution seems to be mainly rain, some ice and snow. This is reminding me of 2009, since it trended from this outlook to mainly ice and a few inches of snow on top.

      • Winter Warlock says:

        It will depend upon the cold air and how far South it comes and when. CB posted yesterday the stronger and further South the Thursday storm progress pulling cold air down will impact the weekend storm. There is a difference in the GFS and Euros though so think models, the storm track and cold air are very much all in play and subject to change.

  5. Bjenks says:

    So if you live north of the parkways to the Ohio River and you are not at least thinking about the loss of electricity over the weekend you need to rethink things. This storm is going to be very impactful to many and the cold to follow will be the worst we have endured in many of years. IMO this storm is bringing winter with it, sustained winter, with lots of snow opportunities as the southern jet is not just going to shut down. People in the south are going to be miserable over the next month and a half and begging for spring to arrive. That is if we even have a spring.

    • feederband says:

      It’s too early to get excited and I’m always prepared. Per NWS LMK “You can see why it`s important not to get too wrapped up into one model solution right now given the variability amongst models, and even run to run inconsistency within the same model”. They don’t know what’s going to happen yet.

    • Troy says:

      We people in the south have been miserable for well over a year now with the continued and sustained torrential rains and gloom so why not be miserable for another month and a half! lol

    • Mike says:

      I hope your right! I love cold and snow. If no snow, I just love the dry cold. What I DON’T want is 37 degree rain… It will be spring and summer in a few months – we don’t need it to come early.

  6. Bryan says:

    Euro has flooding rains. I’m so excited I can barely contain myself. More mud and standing water. Wow, winter is so much fun. lol.

    • BubbaG says:

      Average trend so far seems two thirds rain and one third ice and snow. Even if just a third, it could be rough, since about 1″ of frozen stuff worth of moisture. Cold rain FTW!

      • Bobt says:

        Oh what fun that looks like. A frozen flood is about the best we can hope for. Historic cold temps coming and we get flooding rains with it. Only in Kentucky.

  7. Russell says:

    Nope no snow….wait and see WKY

  8. Drew says:

    Rain and then the wraparound snows will fight a wet ground and give us an inch or so of snow… Let the models change to more SNOW

  9. Drew says:

    CB says significant snows showing up on the latest Euro.. half inch is significant? lol

  10. Winterlover says:

    Negative, Negative you guys are going to eat your words.

    • Drew says:

      Lol, Im only kidding. I just figured id jump on board for two post of negativity! Im positive from here on out because the euro actually does show a pretty good hit for my part of ky. Keep believing!

    • Bryan says:

      No, I won’t. South central to southeast KY will receive less than 1-2″ of snow throughout this supposed arctic outbreak for the ages. What we will receive is more cold rain, lol.

      • Troy says:

        Well, even the models agree with your statement which means one of two things…either the models have caught on to the overwhelming trend or we’re in for a thumping since it seems the models are rarely correct. Haven said that, I’m going with the trend which is overwhelmingly more cold rain, just as you said.

    • BubbaG says:

      Average trend still seems two thirds rain and one third frozen stuff. This has potential for heavy snow, but so far seems rain would be the majority player….. So far.

  11. Jim B says:

    And the trends just roll on… I’m not one to say I told you so, buttt….. haha

    • Jimbo says:

      I agree with you. The rain train will roll on. Maybe some frigid cold after the weekend storm for 2 or 3 days then the next storm will blow the cold air out to make way for more rain.

    • BubbaG says:

      Cold rain over ice any day. Hope it’s so for that.

  12. Debbie says:

    If this storm verifies, it’s only about 5 days -/+ from 10 years ago. Hmm..

  13. Remembering an epic snow storm on MLK Weekend some years ago.

  14. Joey says:

    Just got in KY Sunday morning from LA… landed at cvg. Was so happy to see all the snow up there. This cold rain is driving me crazy though. This year has been nothing but rain as a whole. Not sure which is worst the crazies in LA or this sorry KY weather.

  15. Mike S says:

    This is the most optimistic I’ve been about winter’s fury this season, at least on a region wide level. Before, only parts of our region would be impacted, and I blame it on the NAO teleconnection. It could not hold the cold air in place. However, the most recent ensembles show a negative NAO working in conjunction with a nice signal from the AO and PNA. This means whatever cold air gets in here by this weekend will not easily leave when the next significant storm system rolls in…and this will involve more than just ‘parts’ of the region. I will be looking at top GFS analogs starting tomorrow into Wednesday for a better look at what might unfold later this week and possibly beyond.

    • Prelude says:

      Try telling that to the naysayers on here. I for one am no fan of winter and wish it was 80 degrees year around. Being that said I cannot deny that this weather pattern we are getting ready to experience screams nothing but a winter blitz. These naysayers on here are about ready to get sacked by old man winters fury.

      • Mike S says:

        Can’t blame them. Actually a frozen ground with snow and ice on top of that will eventually have to melt and really make a bad problem worse.

        • Andy Rose says:

          The naysayers live where it hasn’t snowed but very little and they have been right so far. Things may change though but until they do there is no reason to have a different opinion.

        • Prelude says:

          I agree with that. I’m just having a hard time understanding the comments of “winter is done”??? When it’s blatantly obvious winter is just beginning. Places like Covington, Louisville, Lexington have actually had more snow for the season than some places in New England. That’s just plain out sad. Fear not winter is a coming be careful what you wish for.

          • Andy Rose says:

            Winter doesn’t always mean snow that’s what people need to understand. I’ve never seem any snow here that made regret wishing for it.

      • BubbaG says:

        Naysayers equal trend, so a trend buster changes perspective. that said, a few years ago we got three HUGE snows in less than 12 months. That alone should tell folks we can get a big snow.

    • BubbaG says:

      Whatever happens, seems northeast of us is more significant for snow. This seems more of a chance for ice than snow, but too early of course. The optimistic time for me was the December system that went south of us. I’m still surprised by that one.

  16. Winter Warlock says:

    Tried to post this before for a model reality check. Candian might be an outlier and could move South on the next run. Guess making the point live by the models run youn die by the models…still several days out and my guess is will not know much more till Thursday evening. Just my take though!

  17. BlizzardTim says:

    Oh if I could only get the 18z 252 hr (January 25) dream snowstorm to come true!! Anything is possible this year I’m thinking I know the models sure have playing around with historical snowstorms in the extended

    • nasdaq says:

      Strong signal on ensembles for that, straight out of the gulf. fantasyland, but hey we can all dream. What and epic storm that would be.

  18. Jim B says:

    After this upcoming weekend, I will be calling central ky The Winter Rain Forest haha

  19. msd says:

    One thing to note with this storm is the temperatures on the backside are frigid. If precip is involved, the ratios could be much greater than the usual 10:1

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