Monday Evening Thoughts On What’s Ahead

Good evening, everyone. We have a heck of a storm system on the way to the region this coming weekend. It’s one that will bring a lot of precipitation our way and it’s likely to be in many forms. Significant amounts of rain, freezing rain and snow are all possible during this time.

Between now and then, periods of light snow and some freezing drizzle continue through Tuesday. Some very light accumulations continue to be possible. Another weak front may bring a rain or snow shower on Wednesday.

The Thursday system is mainly rain, but may start and end as a touch of frozen stuff.

That takes us to the weekend winter storm that is going to impact millions and millions of folks across the eastern half of the country, including here in Kentucky. This is a storm developing along a true arctic cold front that’s pressing across the state. The temperature gradient along this will be a sight to see.

The whole setup is going to produce heavy amounts of precipitation that can take on many forms. Flooding rains to significant snow and ice may show up across our region.

Let’s look at total precipitation through the weekend…

The European Model from WeatherBell is spitting out 3″-4″ of QPF (Rain and melted down snow and ice)…

The GFS has similar totals…

The Euro continues to have a significant freezing rain signal…

The GFS is much lighter with the ice…

I’m #teamGFS because no one wants ice!!

Snowfall amounts vary significantly from run to run as the models handle the arctic boundary differently. The European…

The GFS is much skimper…

But the earlier run had more…

The new version of the GFS is much closer to the European Model than the model it’s about to replace.

I mentioned the temperature trend is going to be nothing short of awesome to watch as arctic air slams in here. Check out the temperature trend on the European Model…

If you’re a true weather weenie of any kind, you have to be in awe of such a swing. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

After that system moves through, another winter storm may develop a few days later with another surge of arctic air Watch how little time there is between storms…

The temps behind that one…

Again,  this is the kind of pattern that produces legends for the country.

I’ll see you guys tonight for another blowout update. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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16 Responses to Monday Evening Thoughts On What’s Ahead

  1. Jackson says:

    I hate a cold rain and we’ve definitely had our fair share already…having said that #AnythingButIce

  2. Mike says:

    Bring on old man winter! We need a good dose. Remind us of what winter is really like and help mitigate next summer’s bugs. It will be warm and sunny soon enough.

  3. MWR says:

    On behalf of all “weenies”, thanks for the update!

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Gonna be messy!

  5. Lisa Jones says:

    Don’t mind the snow, but please no ice. Can wait for you to get back on tv to go over all of this weather ❄

  6. None of the scenarios that are emerging in the models are delightful. Ice, brutal cold, winds, some snow. That means many will lose power. Many will lose mobility. Many will be in great difficulty. And this is indeed the stuff of legend and saga! CHEESH! Be careful what you wish for………

  7. Dave says:

    Wow…..back to losing our marbles for 3 inches of snow lol….I miss 2014 and 15

  8. SouthernWVaWildcat says:

    This scenario, if it comes true, is a potential catastrophe in the making no matter what precipitation type, because with the ground soaked as it is, rain is even worse than snow right now

    And ice is never a good thing no matter what.

    We need sunshine right now, and a long extended period of it.

    2019 sadly looks like 2018 so far, and that’s not a good thing.

    • BubbaG says:

      Well, IF we get a lot of ice and/or then snow for even more weight- yep, could be the worst yet, as far as collapsing trees and poles- then super cold temps with no power. Ground is soggy already.

      Still seems at least two thirds rain and the main frozen action to our NE. Cherry pick models at your peril.

  9. Jessica says:

    This reminds me of a song!
    Why do you build me up build me up buttercup baby JUST TO LET ME DOWN!

  10. Farmer 43 says:

    I hate to say it but I think we’re gonna end up with mainly rain again if you live along interstate 70 look out it won’t be long we’ll be looking down the weather road again looking for the next blizzard to strike Kentucky only to see the pink and white colors to shift north over time once again I enjoy the blog but like I said before if we just got half the snow the models call for we would give buffalo New York a run for their money one of these days everything will line up for a major winter storm it just has to be perfect this past weekends “winter storm “ was the most pitiful excuse for a storm the snow melted so fast it almost sucked the shoes off my feet

    • Jimbo says:

      That’s the story of Winter in the western WV area. At least since the one big storm back in 2016. And that big one in 2016 was my only accumulation that year. We got a few other dustings I think.

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