All Eyes On A Fun Looking Weekend

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another day with a few flakes flying across the bluegrass state with a lot more action on the way. We flipped the switch back to winter last week, but the Old Man (I’m not talking about myself) is just getting started. An arctic front arrives this weekend and will have a winter storm along it. This is likely to bring all kinds of precipitation to the bluegrass state.

As always, we start with what’s going on today and roll forward. A few flurries or light snows may be flying from time to time, with patchy freezing drizzle possible. Much of this will not show up on radar…

A weak front drops in on Wednesday and may spit out a few snow showers as it does so. From there, a weak low develops to our west and rolls right across the state Thursday into Thursday night. That one is mainly rain, but some wet snow is possible on the front end and back end of this system. especially north. Here’s the NAM for the next few days…

This weekend’s winter storm is going to be headline making system for a significant portion of the country. An arctic boundary sags into the Ohio Valley by Saturday as a couple of lows ride northeast along it. Exactly where that boundary sets up won’t be known for a few more days, but that’s the key player in determining the weather in your backyard.

All modes of precipitation are on the table this weekend, but the early signal is for heavy rain and local high water issues giving way to the potential for freezing rain and snow as arctic temps crash in.

The European Model continues to show this well…

As I’ve mentioned for the past few days, the most awesome part of this setup for me is the temperature swing. 60 to single digits in less than 24 hours? That’s certainly a possibility. Watch the bottom drop out…

In addition to the potential for freezing rain and snow Saturday night into Sunday, that quick of a temperature drop following that much rain could lead to a big time ice up. It’s been a while since this region experienced a true flash freeze.

Another aspect of this setup… The wind. Gusts of 40mph or greater may show up as the cold crashes in…

Many of you are just want snow and I totally get that. But, if you’re a true fan of weather like myself, all the action packed into this weekend is pretty awesome to see. Oh and you may even get some snow out of it if you play nice. 😉

Here’s a little looksee at some of the other models…

New GFS

Canadian

Areas getting snow and ice on the ground have a legit shot at zero by Monday morning with a wind chill even colder than that.

Another storm system will quickly follow that up a few days later, unleashing a fresh round of arctic air. Temps showing up with that blast continue to send a little shiver down the spine…

Again, it’s not just the operational models showing this harsh winter pattern developing. This is about as cold as you can get the GFS Ensembles…

Again, those departures are in Celsius instead of Fahrenheit.

I will drop by for updates later today as my 4 day weekend comes to a close with a visit to the dentist. 🙂 Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.


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50 Responses to All Eyes On A Fun Looking Weekend

  1. StormTrackerWV says:

    Thanks for everything you do Chris! I am excited to see how this storm plays out, but I am NOT looking forward to the bitter cold! Zero degrees?!!? Ugh! That’s brutal!

  2. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Having seen near -20 and over 12″ snow out of one storm, I honestly can handle almost any weather.

    • Bus Haynes says:

      Back in the early 90’s where I live in Ohio it was -40 with 2 feet of snow on the ground and the old house I lived in was popping cracking. And so were the trees. I also remember the Ohio River freezing solid back in the 70’s. I was 27 years old back in 77 and 78. That was the worst winter I had ever seen. The birds were so hungry they were pecking the bark off of trees looking for bugs. I was looking out my window out towards an old open garage I had and I saw a Carolina Ren hop out of it and stop. by the time I got out there it had froze to death. People are not the only ones that suffer from the very cold.I could not wait to see the dry ground in the spring again.

    • Bryan says:

      Late 70’s-I was in second grade, growing up in Louisville. Just remember New Cut Road in south Louisville having high banks of snow where the plows came through daily.
      1994-16″ of snow outside Louisville (Oldham County). Temps got to -20.
      1996-12″ of snow followed by wicked cold weather.
      1998-The great flurry storm that turned out to be 22″ of heavy wet snow. First time I had seen thundersnow as well.
      Those are my memories of extreme winter. The models are already showing breaks in the upcoming pattern where warmth makes an appearance. This winter just doesn’t have it.

  3. TeachLOU says:

    Thanks for all you do CB! Very interesting weather to watch this weekend for sure. Looking like a Netflix, chili, and hot cocoa weekend here! ❄️

  4. Cold-Rain says:

    “Early signal is for heavy rain and high water issues”..Also went to that dreaded word “potential” for snow or ice..Models must of not been good overnight.

  5. Chris Mercer says:

    Looks the cold might come with some sunshine by early next week. 20’s and sunny seems much better than what we had yesterday—low 30’s with a mix of a light drizzle/freezing rain/snow and dark low clouds.

  6. Cameron Fry says:

    Overnight runs were brutal. Expectations should still be tempered, especially if you live in the TN valley.

  7. Farmer 43 says:

    I’m afraid the only excitement this weekend is flash freeze just what I’ve waited for all winter let’s move on down the road to the next storm that don’t pane out but the models say Kentucky is going to get 2 feet and it’s up being cold rain I would really like to have some snow guess I’m gonna have to relocate closer to interstate 70

  8. BubbaG says:

    Unless misreading, seems we went from 2/3 rain to 4/5 rain. Not an apparent trend for snow fans. Ice still seems a bigger player than snow for that 1/5 part. IF reading the terms correctly.

  9. Marsha says:

    I have this app on my phone it’s weather bell it’s giving 40’s for our area next week and all rain oh well guess we will see

  10. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Nothing on the radar but it’s snowing here with around a half inch on the ground.

  11. Bjenks says:

    So the key word is WEAK….Thursday’s system needed to be stronger to pull in the cold behind it. Since that is not evident we will have more cold rain with backside flurries and a hard freeze. Next week systems will be surpressed to the South as we sit on a frozen brown tundra. Geographically KY is in the worst spot to get a good snow storm without all the other precipitation types mixing in. Winter is still young and we will get ours, just wanted snow on the ground before the hard freeze hit. Oh well what can you do???

    • Bryan says:

      Actually cracks are already showing on the much advertised cold air. Looks like mostly quick hitters of cold air interspersed with warmth (and rain, of course).

    • BubbaG says:

      Wording is everything. CB would have titled different than Fun if snow was a main player. Seems the majority will be rain, followed by high winds that should help dry some surfaces, followed by some lighter frozen stuff. Perhaps from a frozen stuff standpoint, a lot more bark than bite. Wondering now if 80% rain and 20% frozen stuff is too optimistic. Seems so.

      None the less, seems east and NE have a shot of another event.

      • Bjenks says:

        Yep!!! And when storms are modeled to go North they absolutely do not correct back to the South. The bright side of this….no ice for KY…..temps will not tank as low as the could with snow pack…..and I can travel to Nashville this weekend with little worries on if I will be able to make it back Sunday afternoon.

  12. Drew says:

    Is there any chance that this storm changes from flooding rain to more of a good wet snow?

  13. JimCVG says:

    I remember the blizzard of ’77 a bit but I was a kid then. I have heard stories about the flash freeze that happened with that storm. It sounds like we’ll have the winds and the temp crash, just not the snow to make it a blizzard. That will likely happen somewhere along the eastern seaboard.

  14. c-BIV says:

    Don’t worry everyone…we’ll get our snow right around Spring when Mr. Bailey wants nothing to do with it, and the snow lovers get to enjoy it for maybe 2 days before the Spring sun melts it all away.
    I am not impressed with the last couple winters at all.
    Remember how much fun it was on here a few years ago with so many Winter Storm Alerts?
    If we can’t get a snowpack, you can keep your Arctic air Mother Nature.

  15. Russell says:

    Heavy rain…the rain train rules WKY….snow…RIP….

  16. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Told you you wild Ned some rest before the weekend weather got here. Tell the dentist to make those pearly whites glisten, kind of like the snow we hoe to get this weekend! 😉 Have a great day everyone.

  17. Farmer 43 says:

    Flash freeze just what I’ve been waiting for I would say the analog years pointed this out right on cue who would of thought

  18. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Told you those four days off would be needed before the weekend weather got here! Sounds really busy. Tell the dentist to polish those teeth to a bright sparkle like the snow we hope to get this weekend! 😉

  19. Ski WV says:

    Rain, to Cold flurries, to warm up, to Rain….wash, rinse, repeat! We have four seasons Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Mud. Either wet or frozen depending on the day. Zzzz.

  20. Jim B says:

    Everybody getting all excited about another rain event. I can’t wait til everybody is excited about a sunny 70 degree spring day!!

  21. Bjenks says:

    Drew……as I commented above to BubbaG….When storms are modeled to go North they absolutely do not correct South….this will be a heavy 1-3 inch rain event for most all of KY with little back side snow and a drop in temps. However, I will remain optimistic about the flip to real winter weather for our area over the next month or so. And the warm ups, some people talk about, will be our best chances for major snow, ice and more flooding rains. The southern jet Is NOT going to just shut down because the cold is coming, but the cold will surpress the storms further south. Tenn/Georgia could see more snow than Ky when all said and done.

    • BubbaG says:

      I’m not optimistic now, because it seems we are the fence for systems this winter, regardless of direction or type. Might not be much of a snow year. I heavily weigh current trends, and nothing so far supports being too optimistic. It just takes one trend buster though 🙂

      • Bjenks says:

        I think we were saying the same thing in 14/15. I understand the trends and the FENCE will live forever, wheather it be the Kentucky or Ohio River!!! I like that the endicies are heading in the right direction and believe our chances for an “Old Skool” thumping could be on the table in the next few weeks.
        Is ROLO out ther?

  22. Bernard P. Fife says:

    If the models have already backed off from a snowier solution and it’s only Tuesday, one can only imagine how things may scale back if the progression continues til Sunday.

  23. Cold-Rain says:

    Feel bad for the ones who have to work in brutal cold..Try packing a 15# chainsaw/climbing/rigging gear through the mountains cutting trees away from power lines with a foot of snow on the ground with temps well below zero so others can stay warm..You will have a dislike for cold weather i cannot describe on this website..

  24. Bobt says:

    NWS talking like only the northern most points of Kentucky may see any snow from this before the main precipitation heads out. Everyone else
    a mix or just plain old flooding rains. Maybe a chance around the 24th of something but computer models not giving much of anything else the rest of the month. Would be crazy to go into the last month of meteorogical winter with as little snow as most of the state has seen.
    Regardless of what happens the rest of the winter, the first two months of it have been one to forget..

  25. Cold-Rain says:

    GFS back to showing some nasty ice close to the northern part of state..Hopefully not a trend..Sometimes the cold can be under modeled pushing south..

    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2019011512&fh=150&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=

  26. Dawnp007 says:

    I’m hoping we don’t get any ice. I just want a good old fashion snow! Winter is still young. I’m still going to hope for it. I detest rain!!

  27. Dr Wx says:

    Looking more like our neighbors to the north ie. Indy, Columbus, and basically the same areas are going to be the winners again for the snow games. Believe the intense low will cut through ky and follow the snow pack southern boundaries just north of the Ohio river. Leaving us with a ton of cold rain, and snow showers behind the front for us. Seems like its either too cold with dry air or too warm with rain. Be nice if these 2 situations would get married and then have snowstorm offspring.

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