Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Here’s hoping each of you are having a beautiful day in he neighborhood. I don’t have a lot of time, but I’m dropping by to give you a quick update then will send you a bigger update this evening.

Our system this weekend continues to look VERY dynamic with heavy rain, high winds, freezing rain, snow and a dramatic temp drop. How it all unfolds remains to be seen and it’s way too early for specifics for any one location.

Before that, we get in on two systems. One is a weak front dropping in early Wednesday with a few snow showers. The other is a fast-moving low working due east with a mainly cold rain. That may still start and end with some frozen precipitation, especially in the north…

That system leaves a boundary behind and where that sets up is where your low goes. I continue to think this puts down enough rain on Saturday to cause local flooding issues across the state. 2″-3″ of rain will be possible before the temps crash and the precip goes to a period of freezing rain then snow. A strong northwest wind with arctic air for later Sunday is likely to produce a major snow shower and snow squall outbreak.

The GFS has the theme correct, but it just cannot crank out enough precipitation in any area of this storm. It did the same thing last weekend. Moral of the story, there will be more moisture than what the model shows for the entire storm system, not just for our region…

The Canadian has a much more realistic precipitation depiction for this event. Also, notice the second low it pops to the southeast of us on Sunday…

The snow map from that run…

All model forecasts like that will change from run to run and run to model. It’s all about how they handle the arctic boundary and low pressure.

The Weather Prediction Center has our region in a slight risk for 4″+ snows this weekend, with northern Kentucky with a little better shot…

Again, that’s from the WPC and not me, but it’s worth noting. Think of that as being similar to the SPC risk areas for severe thunderstorms.

Temps with this system may be near 60 on Saturday then drop into the single digits at some point Sunday, with even lower wind chills. For areas getting snow or ice on the ground, temps by Monday morning make a run at a big old goose egg!

High winds of 40mph of higher will also be noted Saturday and Saturday evening as the cold air crashes in.

Ok, so I wrote more than I thought I would. I’ll see you guys after my dentist visit… Maybe. 🙂 Make it a good one and take care.


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55 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Coreyfromtheky says:

    Ugh…I’m so done with rain…

  2. Cameron Fry says:

    I felt decent yesterday, but today I have little to no confidence in this weekend storm. GEM is too cold. FV3 is garbage. The regular GFS is more reliable at this stage. Still plenty of time for adjustments, but that low cut track is a deal breaker for most of us on here. Outside northern KY, this is cold air chasing moisture all the way. Would love to be proven wrong by week’s end.

  3. Troy says:

    We’re are all done with rain. The next person who complains about any potential future drought immediately gets punched! 🙂

    • Bobt says:

      All kidding aside. All kinds of studies have proven that people’s quality of life is impacted with sunshine. More sunshine typically equals happier people. Unless the climate in Kentucky changes people really will have to think whether or not they would like to relocate here or for the ones here they might be looking for the first ride out of town. Ive personally of had about enough of this new climate. Can’t even enjoy the summers here due to rain.

      • Matt says:

        When will this pattern ever change? We have to get more rain and cloudy days than Seattle at this point…

      • Bryan says:

        Man, I’m literally counting the days down until our youngest child graduates from school. 4 years left! Had a couple of transfer possibilities come up out west (Colorado) but wife did not want to uproot the youngest one yet. This is my birthplace, but I’ve come to hate the climate here.

      • Natedog in Nicholasville says:

        We are on the same page! My wife and I moved from snowy North-Central Ohio in 2007 for less snow and warmer temps (and family). At this point, we are ready to move back or head west! The pattern over the past 3-4 years has been as wet and gray and dreary as I’ve ever seen. At least Ohio froze and we didn’t have all the mud and mold issues that are here. Everything is cyclical and eventually this will balance out (I almost hate to see the pendulum swing the other way to extreme drought) but I wonder how many years away that will be. It doesn’t look like it’s gojng to switch anytime soon. We really need a dry-out period. I’d be willing to bet doctors have seen an uptick in depression/anxiety meds over the last few years. It won’t take a genius to connect some of that to our current climate.

        • Bryan says:

          I’ve been hooked on Colorado for a long time man. I love the drier climate and more pronounced colder seasons. I have come to detest the oppressive humidity in the summer and then then the long line of gray cloudy days that make this place look like Nuclear Winter. I”m sure out west would have it’s own issues but I’m honestly over it. Good luck with your situation.

    • BubbaG says:

      Chris hates drought talk. I bet that could get him in a bar fight 😉

  4. Debbie says:

    Heavy rain/ice/snow/big drop in temps. Still sounds like Chris’ “bold prediction” for the winter?! As much as I like to ‘model-watch’ as the next weenie, after last winter..NOPE! I’ll still watch, I’ll still hope, but still leaving a whole lotta room for disappointment! I am well old enough to remember all the big, nice snowfalls from the 60’s-90’s. I have a pic from when I stayed w/ my aunt in Greensburg, KY and 15″ on the ground in 1966. I was 4. Then through the mid-late 70’s and not going to school for like 2 months straight. 🙂 Someone mentioned the other day(I think it was “feederband”??) that said they missed how the sky would turn all black w/ a storm in summer. Yep-I miss that, too, but miss the snowy days when you’d look out and see the sky all purply-pinkish and then snowflakes as big as your fist coming down. Ahhh…dang, I’m OLD! 😉

  5. Jackson says:

    #AnythingButIce A major snow squall and snow shower outbreak I guess is the best snow lovers can hope for this winter it seems.

  6. Winterlover says:

    Were still 4-5 days away and some people are given up already don’t let mother nature fool you. These models are useless untilll a day or two before the event happen. As of now it’s a general idea what could happen or could be a full blown snow event.

  7. SKI WV says:

    Amazing how the Ohio River seems to be a “snow wall”. Happy Mud season!

  8. Allen says:

    I lived in the Baltimore area ( between Baltimore and Philedelphia ) I remember the 1977 blizzard, The 1980 Something superstorm 18″ of snow and 8″ of sleet..lol Yeah no rain out of that one.. Had a 31″ snowfall few years before we moved out here, Then we got here and no big snowstorms RATS, Our second year here and major ice storm, Yeah 5 days without power.. Remember those but now it’s rain rain rain and more rain… As for this weekend, I’m not saying to early i’ll let Chris Bailey do that ( Snicker ) But at some point i’ll give my thought on it from an amateurs perspective. Be safe everyone!

  9. Russell says:

    Store the sleds….get the rafts ready as snow continues to be AWOL

  10. Mike S says:

    I said I would check into the top analogs from the GFS. Unfortunately, some Kentuckians are not going to like the top analog so far. February 15 2003. For Lexington, it was a significant ice storm, a real game changer in terms of how to handle infrastructure issues, especially related to power outages. This was a nice article about that storm.
    https://www.kentucky.com/news/business/article44155008.html
    For the rest of the state, it was a lot of precipitation, 2-5″ over a 2 or 3 day period. Snowfall was confined to the northern part, along the Ohio river.
    NOT saying this is how it’s going to happen, but I would bet freezing rain will be in the official forecast for some of us.

  11. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Looking down the weather road Thelma Lou says things have a way of leveling themselves out and somewhere, sometime the water spicket will turn off for a while.

  12. Leeannie says:

    Can’t help but think of the lepidodendron fossil I found a few years ago in Cannonsburg, Ky. I think with all this rain we are now having, we might be returning to the rainforest climate! So over it! But thanks, Chris Bailey, for continuing to report the weather forecast for us. I think I wouldn’t have the heart. LOL

  13. justin says:

    id love to have at least 10 (in a row) dry days of warm 70’s & sunshine…..sigh. #toomuchrain

  14. Winterlover says:

    This summer we be talking about the drought and everybody be begging for rain. Lol

    • Bobt says:

      Not me. Summer is supposed to have some hot dry stretches. Yards are supposed have a hint of brown in them during July and August. A lot of gardens received way too much rain this year for optimal growth. It would take a solid month of no rain for me to wish for a rain day. I probably wouldn’t even want it to then unless I just got tired of going out and watering the plants every day.

  15. Dr.Wx says:

    , 2019 at 3:38 pm
    Looking more like our neighbors to the north ie. Indy, Columbus, and basically the same areas are going to be the winners again for the snow games. Believe the intense low will cut through ky and follow the snow pack southern boundaries just north of the Ohio river. Leaving us with a ton of cold rain, and snow showers behind the front for us. Seems like its either too cold with dry air or too warm with rain. Be nice if these 2 situations would get married and then have snowstorm offspring

  16. Dr Wx says:

    , 2019 at 3:38 pm
    Looking more like our neighbors to the north ie. Indy, Columbus, and basically the same areas are going to be the winners again for the snow games. Believe the intense low will cut through ky and follow the snow pack southern boundaries just north of the Ohio river. Leaving us with a ton of cold rain, and snow showers behind the front for us. Seems like its either too cold with dry air or too warm with rain. Be nice if these 2 situations would get married and then have snowstorm offspring

    • Bobt says:

      That’s why we are known as Fenctucky.

      • Dr Wx says:

        Lol more like walltucky

      • BubbaG says:

        I think one more missed opportunity this winter and CB could probably concur. Different types of systems from multiple directions have been fenced. This coming one apparently included.

        No clippers in the past few years to bridge the gap like the previous decade plus. Seems those three mega snows in 12 months a few years ago used up our snow credits 😉

  17. Lotsasnow says:

    I llive here in delaware ohio i have about 7 inchs on ground now i hope this next snow hits ky not my house i have had enough. Your turn.

  18. Formerly from KY says:

    I from Eastern Kentucky but live near Erie PA our weatherman describe the amount of snow were going to get this weekend in Feet not Inches.

  19. Cold-Rain says:

    Well if i lived up Northern Ky i would be praying for rain right now and more of a Northern shift..GFS this morning and today’s Euro is getting awful close for a bad ice storm up in them there parts..Seems to me its trended a little farther south..My armchair analysis anyways..

  20. Prelude says:

    Soo… 2-3 inches of rain expected the time the cold air catches the precipitation the precipitation will be exiting. Which leaves most with backside flurries and a possible flash freeze. Basically the snowpack will be a dusting. Sounds about right for snow lovers, good thing I don’t like the snow I would be highly disappointed if I was a snow lover. Oh well keep the faith.

    • BubbaG says:

      Such is the Fence! Where it and own it proud 🙂 😉

      We are kind of like the northern wall in GOT, except no ice dragon to destroy it. Rain dragon is too powerful.

    • Jim B says:

      Told you…..not too late to jump on the Jim B bandwagon haha… kidding

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