Good afternoon, gang. Here’s hoping each of you are having a beautiful day in he neighborhood. I don’t have a lot of time, but I’m dropping by to give you a quick update then will send you a bigger update this evening.

Our system this weekend continues to look VERY dynamic with heavy rain, high winds, freezing rain, snow and a dramatic temp drop. How it all unfolds remains to be seen and it’s way too early for specifics for any one location.

Before that, we get in on two systems. One is a weak front dropping in early Wednesday with a few snow showers. The other is a fast-moving low working due east with a mainly cold rain. That may still start and end with some frozen precipitation, especially in the north…

That system leaves a boundary behind and where that sets up is where your low goes. I continue to think this puts down enough rain on Saturday to cause local flooding issues across the state. 2″-3″ of rain will be possible before the temps crash and the precip goes to a period of freezing rain then snow. A strong northwest wind with arctic air for later Sunday is likely to produce a major snow shower and snow squall outbreak.

The GFS has the theme correct, but it just cannot crank out enough precipitation in any area of this storm. It did the same thing last weekend. Moral of the story, there will be more moisture than what the model shows for the entire storm system, not just for our region…

The Canadian has a much more realistic precipitation depiction for this event. Also, notice the second low it pops to the southeast of us on Sunday…

The snow map from that run…

All model forecasts like that will change from run to run and run to model. It’s all about how they handle the arctic boundary and low pressure.

The Weather Prediction Center has our region in a slight risk for 4″+ snows this weekend, with northern Kentucky with a little better shot…

Again, that’s from the WPC and not me, but it’s worth noting. Think of that as being similar to the SPC risk areas for severe thunderstorms.

Temps with this system may be near 60 on Saturday then drop into the single digits at some point Sunday, with even lower wind chills. For areas getting snow or ice on the ground, temps by Monday morning make a run at a big old goose egg!

High winds of 40mph of higher will also be noted Saturday and Saturday evening as the cold air crashes in.

Ok, so I wrote more than I thought I would. I’ll see you guys after my dentist visit… Maybe. 🙂 Make it a good one and take care.